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A Bayesian methodology for simultaneously detecting and estimating regime change points and variable selection in multiple regression models for marketing research

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  • Duncan Fong

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  • Wayne DeSarbo

Abstract

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Suggested Citation

  • Duncan Fong & Wayne DeSarbo, 2007. "A Bayesian methodology for simultaneously detecting and estimating regime change points and variable selection in multiple regression models for marketing research," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 5(4), pages 427-453, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:kap:qmktec:v:5:y:2007:i:4:p:427-453
    DOI: 10.1007/s11129-007-9030-8
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Ramya Neelamegham & Pradeep K. Chintagunta, 2004. "Modeling and Forecasting the Sales of Technology Products," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 2(3), pages 195-232, September.
    2. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    3. Peter S. Fader & Bruce G. S. Hardie & Chun-Yao Huang, 2004. "A Dynamic Changepoint Model for New Product Sales Forecasting," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 23(1), pages 50-65, October.
    4. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    5. Kim, Chang-Jin, 1994. "Dynamic linear models with Markov-switching," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1-2), pages 1-22.
    6. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    7. Liang, Feng & Paulo, Rui & Molina, German & Clyde, Merlise A. & Berger, Jim O., 2008. "Mixtures of g Priors for Bayesian Variable Selection," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 103, pages 410-423, March.
    8. Chib, Siddhartha, 1998. "Estimation and comparison of multiple change-point models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 86(2), pages 221-241, June.
    9. Nicholas E. Piggott & James A. Chalfant & Julian M. Alston & Garry R. Griffith, 1996. "Demand Response to Advertising in the Australian Meat Industry," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association, vol. 78(2), pages 268-279.
    10. Dominique M. Hanssens & Henry A. Levien, 1983. "An Econometric Study of Recruitment Marketing in the U.S. Navy," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 29(10), pages 1167-1184, October.
    11. Chang-Jin Kim & Charles R. Nelson, 1999. "State-Space Models with Regime Switching: Classical and Gibbs-Sampling Approaches with Applications," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262112388, January.
    12. Ploberger, Werner & Kramer, Walter & Kontrus, Karl, 1989. "A new test for structural stability in the linear regression model," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 307-318, February.
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    Cited by:

    1. Johannes Reichl & Sylvia Fr├╝hwirth-Schnatter, 2012. "A censored random coefficients model for the detection of zero willingness to pay," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 259-281, June.
    2. Nobuhiko Terui & Shohei Hasegawa & Greg M. Allenby, 2015. "A Threshold Model for Discontinuous Preference Change and Satiation," TMARG Discussion Papers 122, Graduate School of Economics and Management, Tohoku University.
    3. Sandeep R. Chandukala & Yancy D. Edwards & Greg M. Allenby, 2011. "Identifying Unmet Demand," Marketing Science, INFORMS, vol. 30(1), pages 61-73, 01-02.
    4. Sam Hui & Eric Bradlow, 2012. "Bayesian multi-resolution spatial analysis with applications to marketing," Quantitative Marketing and Economics (QME), Springer, vol. 10(4), pages 419-452, December.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Change point models; Variable selection; Bayesian analysis; Multiple regression models; Promotion response modeling; C11; C13; C30; M31;

    JEL classification:

    • C11 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Bayesian Analysis: General
    • C13 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General - - - Estimation: General
    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • M31 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Marketing and Advertising - - - Marketing

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