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Effekte der Staalichen Marktintervention auf den Weizenmarkt in Serbien während der Nahrungsmittelkrise in 2007/2008

  • Djuric, Ivan
  • Gotz, Linde
  • Glauben, Thomas

This paper analyzes how the market interventions of the Serbian government during the food crisis 2007/2008, inter alia a de facto export ban, have affected domestic wheat market. Besides a comprehensive description of the crisis policy and its effects on the Serbian wheat market, we investigate how it influences the equilibrium and stability of the Serbian wheat market and its integration with the world market within a price transmission model. Applying a Markov-switching error correction model to weekly wheat grower prices in Serbia and world market prices, two states of the wheat market are identified. Our results suggest that the market equilibrium was disrupted and that the market stability was reduced especially after the export ban and during the so called “adjustment” regime. Also, we find that the price dampening effect of the export restrictions was only short-lived, and that Serbian wheat grower prices even increased above the world market level. Wir analysieren wie sich die Interventionen der serbischen Regierung auf den Weizenmarkt, insbesondere das Exportverbot, während der Nahrungsmittelkrise 2007/2008 auf den inländischen Weizenmarkt ausgewirkt haben. Basierend auf Experteninterviews liefert dieser Beitrag zunächst eine detaillierte deskriptive Analyse der Politikmaßnahmen sowie deren Effekte auf Marktpreise und Handelsmengen. Darüber hinaus werden die Einflüsse der Krisenpolitik bzw. der Krise selbst auf das Gleichgewicht, die Stabilität sowie die Integration des inländischen Weizenmarktes in die Weltmärkte untersucht. In einem Markov-Switching Fehlerkorrekturmodell, welches auf der Grundlage von wöchentlichen Erzeugerpreisen für Weizen in Serbien sowie Weltmarktpreisen geschätzt wird, lassen sich zwei Preistransmissionszustände identifizieren. Unsere Ergebnisse weisen darauf hin, dass das Marktgleichgewicht gestört wurde, und dass die Marktstabilität besonders nach dem Exportverbot und während des so genannten "Anpassung"-Regime reduziert wurde. Darüber hinaus war der preisdämpfende Effekt des Exportverbots nur von kurzer Dauer; vielmehr stieg der serbische Weizenpreis weit über das Niveau des Weltmarktpreises an.

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Paper provided by German Association of Agricultural Economists (GEWISOLA) in its series 51st Annual Conference, Halle, Germany, September 28-30, 2011 with number 114485.

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Date of creation: 2011
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Handle: RePEc:ags:gewi11:114485
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  1. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
  2. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
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  6. Engle, Robert F & Granger, Clive W J, 1987. "Co-integration and Error Correction: Representation, Estimation, and Testing," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 251-76, March.
  7. Bernhard Brümmer & Stephan von Cramon-Taubadel & Sergiy Zorya, 2009. "The impact of market and policy instability on price transmission between wheat and flour in Ukraine," European Review of Agricultural Economics, Foundation for the European Review of Agricultural Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 203-230, June.
  8. Henrik Hansen & Søren Johansen, 1999. "Some tests for parameter constancy in cointegrated VAR-models," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 2(2), pages 306-333.
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