IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/bdi/opques/qef_596_21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Forecasting corporate capital accumulation in Italy: the role of survey-based information

Author

Listed:
  • Claire Giordano

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Marco Marinucci

    (Bank of Italy)

  • Andrea Silvestrini

    (Bank of Italy)

Abstract

While there is a vast macroeconomic literature that singles out the main drivers of capital accumulation in advanced economies during and after the global financial and sovereign debt crises' recessionary phase, there is much less research seeking to identify both models and variables that possess out-of-sample forecasting ability for gross fixed capital formation. Moreover, micro-founded variables are scarcely employed in macroeconomic forecasting of real investment. We fill this gap by considering a battery of univariate and multivariate time-series models to forecast investment of non-financial corporations in Italy, an interesting case-study due to its steep downturn during the two afore-mentioned crises. We find that a vector error correction model augmented with firm survey-based variables accounting for business confidence, demand uncertainty and financing constraints generally outperforms the autoregressive benchmark and a series of competing multivariate time-series models in various, alternative, evaluation samples that take into account the impact of both the global financial crisis and the sovereign debt crisis on forecast accuracy.

Suggested Citation

  • Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2021. "Forecasting corporate capital accumulation in Italy: the role of survey-based information," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 596, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  • Handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_596_21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.bancaditalia.it/pubblicazioni/qef/2021-0596/QEF_596_21.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Pesaran, M. Hashem & Shin, Yongcheol & Smith, Richard J., 2000. "Structural analysis of vector error correction models with exogenous I(1) variables," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 293-343, August.
    2. Elisa Gamberoni & Claire Giordano & Paloma Lopez-Garcia, 2016. "Capital and labour (mis)allocation in the euro area: Some stylized facts and determinants," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 349, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    3. Matthieu Bussière & Laurent Ferrara & Juliana Milovich, 2017. "Explaining the recent slump in investment: the role of expected demand and uncertainty," Rue de la Banque, Banque de France, issue 44, may..
    4. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    5. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis, 2016. "Measuring Economic Policy Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 131(4), pages 1593-1636.
    6. Robert E. Hall, 2009. "By How Much Does GDP Rise If the Government Buys More Output?," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 40(2 (Fall)), pages 183-249.
    7. Marcellino, Massimiliano & Stock, James H. & Watson, Mark W., 2003. "Macroeconomic forecasting in the Euro area: Country specific versus area-wide information," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 47(1), pages 1-18, February.
    8. Bernanke, Ben & Gertler, Mark, 1989. "Agency Costs, Net Worth, and Business Fluctuations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(1), pages 14-31, March.
    9. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    10. Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
    11. Luigi Guiso & Giuseppe Parigi, 1999. "Investment and Demand Uncertainty," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 114(1), pages 185-227.
    12. Ryan Niladri Banerjee & Jonathan Kearns & Marco Jacopo Lombardi, 2015. "(Why) Is investment weak?," BIS Quarterly Review, Bank for International Settlements, March.
    13. Paccagnini, Alessia, 2019. "Did financial factors matter during the Great Recession?," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 174(C), pages 26-30.
    14. Chow, Gregory C & Lin, An-loh, 1971. "Best Linear Unbiased Interpolation, Distribution, and Extrapolation of Time Series by Related Series," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 53(4), pages 372-375, November.
    15. R?diger Bachmann & Steffen Elstner & Eric R. Sims, 2013. "Uncertainty and Economic Activity: Evidence from Business Survey Data," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 5(2), pages 217-249, April.
    16. Fabio Bacchini & Maria Elena Bontempi & Roberto Golinelli & Cecilia Jona-Lasinio, 2018. "Short- and long-run heterogeneous investment dynamics," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 54(2), pages 343-378, March.
    17. MacKinnon, James G, 1996. "Numerical Distribution Functions for Unit Root and Cointegration Tests," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 11(6), pages 601-618, Nov.-Dec..
    18. Johansen, Soren, 1988. "Statistical analysis of cointegration vectors," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 231-254.
    19. Fatica, Serena, 2018. "Business capital accumulation and the user cost: Is there a heterogeneity bias?," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 15-34.
    20. Simon Potter, 1999. "Nonlinear Time Series Modelling: An Introduction," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 13(5), pages 505-528, December.
    21. Bontempi, Maria Elena & Golinelli, Roberto & Parigi, Giuseppe, 2010. "Why demand uncertainty curbs investment: Evidence from a panel of Italian manufacturing firms," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 218-238, March.
    22. MacKinnon, James G & Haug, Alfred A & Michelis, Leo, 1999. "Numerical Distribution Functions of Likelihood Ratio Tests for Cointegration," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(5), pages 563-577, Sept.-Oct.
    23. Ms. Bergljot B Barkbu & Pelin Berkmen & Pavel Lukyantsau & Mr. Sergejs Saksonovs & Hanni Schoelermann, 2015. "Investment in the Euro Area: Why Has It Been Weak?," IMF Working Papers 2015/032, International Monetary Fund.
    24. Diebold, Francis X & Mariano, Roberto S, 2002. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 20(1), pages 134-144, January.
    25. Fabio Busetti & Claire Giordano & Giordano Zevi, 2016. "The Drivers of Italy’s Investment Slump During the Double Recession," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 2(2), pages 143-165, July.
    26. Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2016. "Investment and investment financing in Italy: some evidence at the macro level," Questioni di Economia e Finanza (Occasional Papers) 307, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    27. Guido Bulligan & Fabio Busetti & Michele Caivano & Pietro Cova & Davide Fantino & Alberto Locarno & Lisa Rodano, 2017. "The Bank of Italy econometric model: an update of the main equations and model elasticities," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1130, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    28. Leandro D�Aurizio & Stefano Iezzi, 2011. "Investment forecasting with business survey data," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 832, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
    29. Harvey, David & Leybourne, Stephen & Newbold, Paul, 1997. "Testing the equality of prediction mean squared errors," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 281-291, June.
    30. Colin Ellis & Simon Price, 2004. "UK Business Investment and the User Cost of Capital," Manchester School, University of Manchester, vol. 72(s1), pages 72-93, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Blagov, Boris & Müller, Henrik & Jentsch, Carsten & Schmidt, Torsten, 2021. "The investment narrative: Improving private investment forecasts with media data," Ruhr Economic Papers 921, RWI - Leibniz-Institut für Wirtschaftsforschung, Ruhr-University Bochum, TU Dortmund University, University of Duisburg-Essen.
    2. Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2022. "Assessing the usefulness of survey‐based data in forecasting firms' capital formation: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 491-513, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Claire Giordano & Marco Marinucci & Andrea Silvestrini, 2022. "Assessing the usefulness of survey‐based data in forecasting firms' capital formation: Evidence from Italy," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 41(3), pages 491-513, April.
    2. Giordano, Claire & Marinucci, Marco & Silvestrini, Andrea, 2019. "The macro determinants of firms' and households' investment: Evidence from Italy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 78(C), pages 118-133.
    3. Bańbura, Marta & Albani, Maria & Ambrocio, Gene & Bursian, Dirk & Buss, Ginters & de Winter, Jasper & Gavura, Miroslav & Giordano, Claire & Júlio, Paulo & Le Roux, Julien & Lozej, Matija & Malthe-Thag, 2018. "Business investment in EU countries," Occasional Paper Series 215, European Central Bank.
    4. Wolfgang Nierhaus & Timo Wollmershäuser, 2016. "ifo Konjunkturumfragen und Konjunkturanalyse: Band II," ifo Forschungsberichte, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 72.
    5. Camila Figueroa S. & Michael Pedersen, 2019. "A system for forecasting Chilean cash demand – the role of forecast combinations," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 22(2), pages 040-068, August.
    6. Magnus Reif, 2020. "Macroeconomics, Nonlinearities, and the Business Cycle," ifo Beiträge zur Wirtschaftsforschung, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, number 87.
    7. Balázs Égert, 2021. "Investment in OECD Countries: a Primer," Comparative Economic Studies, Palgrave Macmillan;Association for Comparative Economic Studies, vol. 63(2), pages 200-223, June.
    8. Fabio Busetti & Claire Giordano & Giordano Zevi, 2016. "The Drivers of Italy’s Investment Slump During the Double Recession," Italian Economic Journal: A Continuation of Rivista Italiana degli Economisti and Giornale degli Economisti, Springer;Società Italiana degli Economisti (Italian Economic Association), vol. 2(2), pages 143-165, July.
    9. Yuan, Chunming, 2011. "The exchange rate and macroeconomic determinants: Time-varying transitional dynamics," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(2), pages 197-220, August.
    10. Phengpis, Chanwit, 2006. "Market efficiency and cointegration of spot exchange rates during periods of economic turmoil: Another look at European and Asian currency crises," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 58(4), pages 323-342.
    11. Giannellis, Nikolaos & Papadopoulos, Athanasios P., 2009. "Testing for efficiency in selected developing foreign exchange markets: An equilibrium-based approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 26(1), pages 155-166, January.
    12. Agostino Consolo & Marco Langiulli & David Sondermann, 2019. "Business investment in euro area countries: the role of institutions and debt overhang," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 26(7), pages 561-575, April.
    13. Xiaojie Xu, 2017. "The rolling causal structure between the Chinese stock index and futures," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 31(4), pages 491-509, November.
    14. Derek Bond & Michael J. Harrison & Edward J. O'Brien, 2005. "Testing for Long Memory and Nonlinear Time Series: A Demand for Money Study," Trinity Economics Papers tep20021, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    15. Neil R. Ericsson & James G. MacKinnon, 2002. "Distributions of error correction tests for cointegration," Econometrics Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 5(2), pages 285-318, June.
    16. Milas Costas & Legrenzi Gabriella, 2006. "Non-linear Real Exchange Rate Effects in the UK Labour Market," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 10(1), pages 1-34, March.
    17. Clarida, Richard H. & Sarno, Lucio & Taylor, Mark P. & Valente, Giorgio, 2003. "The out-of-sample success of term structure models as exchange rate predictors: a step beyond," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(1), pages 61-83, May.
    18. Morikawa, Masayuki, 2019. "Uncertainty over production forecasts: An empirical analysis using monthly quantitative survey data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 163-179.
    19. Kose,Ayhan & Ohnsorge,Franziska Lieselotte & Ye,Lei Sandy & Islamaj,Ergys, 2017. "Weakness in investment growth : causes, implications and policy responses," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7990, The World Bank.
    20. Oscar Claveria & Petar Sorić, 2023. "Labour market uncertainty after the irruption of COVID-19," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 64(4), pages 1897-1945, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Real investment; forecasting evaluation; firm survey data; vector error correction model;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C52 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Model Evaluation, Validation, and Selection
    • E22 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Investment; Capital; Intangible Capital; Capacity
    • E27 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bdi:opques:qef_596_21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/bdigvit.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.