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O Crédito Imobiliário no Brasil e sua Relação com a Política Monetária

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  • Cardoso de Mendonça, Mário Jorge

Abstract

Este estudo tem como objetivo analisar os determinantes da demanda por crédito imobiliário no Brasil assim como verificar o efeito dinâmico que um choque de política monetária sobre este. Com base no modelo com mudança de regime tipo Markov Switching, estimamos tal função de demanda usando dados mensais agregados de jan/03 a set/12. Os resultados acenam para o fato de que a demanda por hipoteca tem estado sujeita a ciclos de retração e expansão desde 2003. Um deles ligado à fase recessiva sendo que os outros dois estão ligados à fase expansiva do ciclo de crédito. O ciclo de expansão tem início ao final de 2005 é marcado pela alternância de dois regimes distintos. O regime que se concentra entre final de 2005 até inicio de 2009 foi impulsionado por fatores pró-mercado decorrentes das mudanças na legislação, crescimento da economia, aumento da renda real, etc. A partir de 2009, a situação se altera, passando a prevalecer um regime onde a expansão do crédito é mais motivada por ações de medidas anticíclicas adotadas pelo governo federal com intuito de mitigar os efeitos da crise de 2007-2008. A fase recessiva do ciclo de crédito ligada a um único regime vai até 2005 retornando por volta de março de 2012 quando a série de concessões de crédito parece entrar em desaceleração. Aplicamos ainda o modelo VAR estrutural para avaliar o efeito de um choque de política monetária sobre a demanda por hipoteca. De acordo com os resultados, um choque contracionista produz o efeito negativo sobre importantes variáveis ligadas ao setor imobiliário. Observa-se queda acentuada e contínua da demanda por financiamento, do preço dos imóveis, do produto da construção civil assim como aumento da inadimplência.

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  • Cardoso de Mendonça, Mário Jorge, 2013. "O Crédito Imobiliário no Brasil e sua Relação com a Política Monetária," Revista Brasileira de Economia - RBE, EPGE Brazilian School of Economics and Finance - FGV EPGE (Brazil), vol. 67(4), November.
  • Handle: RePEc:fgv:epgrbe:v:67:y:2013:i:4:a:11597
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