IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/soceps/v90y2023ics0038012123002458.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Eurosystem stability: A stochastic dynamic optimization approach to public debt

Author

Listed:
  • Maggi, Bernardo

Abstract

In this paper we focus on the dynamics of tax revenue and debt that should be necessary for the European countries to comply with the rules on which the Stability and Growth Pact (SGP) is founded, when public budgets are expounded to unexpected expenses.

Suggested Citation

  • Maggi, Bernardo, 2023. "Eurosystem stability: A stochastic dynamic optimization approach to public debt," Socio-Economic Planning Sciences, Elsevier, vol. 90(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:90:y:2023:i:c:s0038012123002458
    DOI: 10.1016/j.seps.2023.101733
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0038012123002458
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.seps.2023.101733?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Olivier J Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt: Fiscal and Welfare Costs in a Time of Low Interest Rates," Policy Briefs PB19-2, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
    2. Engle, Robert & Granger, Clive, 2015. "Co-integration and error correction: Representation, estimation, and testing," Applied Econometrics, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA), vol. 39(3), pages 106-135.
    3. Kamihigashi, Takashi, 2005. "Necessity of the transversality condition for stochastic models with bounded or CRRA utility," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 29(8), pages 1313-1329, August.
    4. Olivier Blanchard, 2019. "Public Debt and Low Interest Rates," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 109(4), pages 1197-1229, April.
    5. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    6. Beqiraj, Elton & Fedeli, Silvia & Forte, Francesco, 2018. "Public debt sustainability: An empirical study on OECD countries," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 238-248.
    7. Ravi Kanbur & Matti Tuomala, 2013. "Relativity, Inequality, And Optimal Nonlinear Income Taxation," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1199-1217, November.
    8. Lucas, Robert Jr. & Stokey, Nancy L., 1983. "Optimal fiscal and monetary policy in an economy without capital," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 12(1), pages 55-93.
    9. Dmitriev, Mikhail & Hoddenbagh, Jonathan, 2019. "Optimal fiscal transfers in a monetary union," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 91-108.
    10. Pierpaolo Benigno & Michael Woodford, 2004. "Optimal Monetary and Fiscal Policy: A Linear-Quadratic Approach," NBER Chapters, in: NBER Macroeconomics Annual 2003, Volume 18, pages 271-364, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Darong Dai & Liqun Liu & Guoqiang Tian, 2019. "Interregional redistribution and budget institutions with private information on intergenerational externality," Review of Economic Design, Springer;Society for Economic Design, vol. 23(3), pages 127-154, December.
    12. S. Rao Aiyagari & Albert Marcet & Thomas J. Sargent & Juha Seppala, 2002. "Optimal Taxation without State-Contingent Debt," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(6), pages 1220-1254, December.
    13. S. M. Ali Abbas & Bernardin Akitoby & Jochen R. Andritzky & Helge Berger & Takuji Komatsuzaki & Justin Tyson, 2013. "Dealing with High Debt in an Era of Low Growth," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 13/7, International Monetary Fund.
    14. Pirttila, Jukka & Tuomala, Matti, 2001. "On optimal non-linear taxation and public good provision in an overlapping generations economy," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(3), pages 485-501, March.
    15. Judd, Kenneth L., 1999. "Optimal taxation and spending in general competitive growth models," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 71(1), pages 1-26, January.
    16. Klaus Masuch & Edmund Moshammer & Beatrice Pierluigi, 2017. "Institutions, public debt and growth in Europe," Public Sector Economics, Institute of Public Finance, vol. 41(2), pages 159-205.
    17. Alfonso ARPAIA & Alessandro TURRINI, 2008. "Government Expenditure and Economic Growth in the EU: Long-Run Tendencies and Short-Term Adjustment," EcoMod2008 23800006, EcoMod.
    18. Barry Eichengreen & Ugo Panizza, 2016. "A surplus of ambition: can Europe rely on large primary surpluses to solve its debt problem?," Economic Policy, CEPR, CESifo, Sciences Po;CES;MSH, vol. 31(85), pages 5-49.
    19. Mr. S. M. Ali Abbas & Mr. Bernardin Akitoby & Mr. Jochen R. Andritzky & Mr. Helge Berger & Mr. Takuji Komatsuzaki & Justin Tyson, 2013. "Dealing with High Debt in an Era of Low Growth," IMF Staff Discussion Notes 2013/007, International Monetary Fund.
    20. Mr. Marco Arena & Gabriel Di Bella & Mr. Alfredo Cuevas & Mr. Borja Gracia & Vina Nguyen & Alex Pienkowski, 2020. "It is Only Natural: Europe’s Low Interest Rates," IMF Working Papers 2020/116, International Monetary Fund.
    21. Mr. Evan C Tanner & Mr. Kevin J Carey, 2005. "The Perils of Tax Smoothing: Sustainable Fiscal Policy with Random Shocks to Permanent Output," IMF Working Papers 2005/207, International Monetary Fund.
    22. Vladimir V. Dashkeev & Stephen J. Turnovsky, 2023. "Tax systems and public borrowing limits in a fiscal union," International Tax and Public Finance, Springer;International Institute of Public Finance, vol. 30(2), pages 351-395, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Panizza, Ugo & Fatás, Antonio & Ghosh, Atish R. & ,, 2019. "The Motives to Borrow," CEPR Discussion Papers 13735, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    2. Konstantakis, Konstantinos N. & Michaelides, Panayotis G., 2014. "Transmission of the debt crisis: From EU15 to USA or vice versa? A GVAR approach," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 115-132.
    3. Jussi Lindgren, 2021. "Examination of Interest-Growth Differentials and the Risk of Sovereign Insolvency," Risks, MDPI, vol. 9(4), pages 1-14, April.
    4. Marco Bassetto & Wei Cui, 2024. "A Ramsey Theory of Financial Distortions," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 132(8), pages 2612-2654.
    5. Marco Bassetto & Thomas J. Sargent, 2020. "Shotgun Wedding: Fiscal and Monetary Policy," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 659-690, August.
    6. Hauptmeier, Sebastian & Kamps, Christophe, 2022. "Debt policies in the aftermath of COVID-19 — The SGP’s debt benchmark revisited," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Stéphane Guibaud & Yves Nosbusch & Dimitri Vayanos, 2013. "Bond Market Clienteles, the Yield Curve, and the Optimal Maturity Structure of Government Debt," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(8), pages 1914-1961.
    8. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2011. "Discretionary policy in a monetary union with sovereign debt," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 55(1), pages 93-117, January.
    9. Campbell Leith & Eric Leeper, 2016. "Understanding Inflation as a Joint Monetary-Fiscal Phenomenon," Working Papers 2016_01, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. European Fiscal Board (EFB), 2020. "2020 annual report of the European Fiscal Board," Annual reports 2020, European Fiscal Board.
    11. Adao, Bernardino & Correia, Isabel & Teles, Pedro, 2009. "On the relevance of exchange rate regimes for stabilization policy," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(4), pages 1468-1488, July.
    12. Navarro-Ortiz, Josep & Sapena, Juan, 2020. "Is external debt sustainable? A probabilistic approach," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 93(C), pages 142-153.
    13. Alberto Botta, 2020. "The short- and long-run inconsistency of the expansionary austerity theory: a post-Keynesian/evolutionist critique," Journal of Evolutionary Economics, Springer, vol. 30(1), pages 143-177, January.
    14. Fernando Broner & Alberto Martin & Jaume Ventura, 2021. "On Public Spending and Economic Unions," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(1), pages 122-154, March.
    15. Cassou, Steven P. & Gorostiaga Alonso, Miren Arantzazu & Gutiérrez Huerta, María José & Hamilton, Stephen F., 2006. "Second-best tax policy in a growing economy with externalities," DFAEII Working Papers 1988-088X, University of the Basque Country - Department of Foundations of Economic Analysis II.
    16. Eric M. Leeper, 2010. "Monetary science, fiscal alchemy," Proceedings - Economic Policy Symposium - Jackson Hole, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City, pages 361-434.
    17. V. V. Chari & Patrick J. Kehoe, 2006. "Modern Macroeconomics in Practice: How Theory Is Shaping Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 20(4), pages 3-28, Fall.
    18. Pfeiffer, Philipp & Roeger, Werner & Vogel, Lukas, 2021. "Optimal fiscal policy with low interest rates for government debt," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 132(C).
    19. Marcet, Albert & Scott, Andrew, 2009. "Debt and deficit fluctuations and the structure of bond markets," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 144(2), pages 473-501, March.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Public debt and tax revenue; Stochastic control; Discrete Riccati equation; Long run equilibrium;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C61 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Optimization Techniques; Programming Models; Dynamic Analysis
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:soceps:v:90:y:2023:i:c:s0038012123002458. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/seps .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.