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Partial information about contagion risk, self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Branger, Nicole
  • Kraft, Holger
  • Meinerding, Christoph

Abstract

This paper compares two classes of models that allow for additional channels of correlation between asset returns: regime switching models with jumps and models with contagious jumps. Both classes of models involve a hidden Markov chain that captures good and bad economic states. The distinctive feature of a model with contagious jumps is that large negative returns and unobservable transitions of the economy into a bad state can occur simultaneously. We show that in this framework the filtered loss intensities have dynamics similar to self-exciting processes. Besides, we study the impact of unobservable contagious jumps on optimal portfolio strategies and filtering.

Suggested Citation

  • Branger, Nicole & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2013. "Partial information about contagion risk, self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization," SAFE Working Paper Series 28, Research Center SAFE - Sustainable Architecture for Finance in Europe, Goethe University Frankfurt.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:safewp:28
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    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/88730/1/775811742.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
    2. Mark H. A. Davis & Sebastien Lleo, 2009. "Jump-Diffusion Risk-Sensitive Asset Management," Papers 0905.4740, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2010.
    3. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2006. "Portfolio implications of systemic crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2347-2369, August.
    4. Aase, Knut Kristian, 1984. "Optimum portfolio diversification in a general continuous-time model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 81-98, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset Allocation; Contagion; Nonlinear Filtering; Hidden State; Selfexciting Processes;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

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