Partial information about contagion risk, self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization
This paper compares two classes of models that allow for additional channels of correlation between asset returns: regime switching models with jumps and models with contagious jumps. Both classes of models involve a hidden Markov chain that captures good and bad economic states. The distinctive feature of a model with contagious jumps is that large negative returns and unobservable transitions of the economy into a bad state can occur simultaneously. We show that in this framework the filtered loss intensities have dynamics similar to self-exciting processes. Besides, we study the impact of unobservable contagious jumps on optimal portfolio strategies and filtering.
|Date of creation:||2013|
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- Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2006. "Portfolio implications of systemic crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2347-2369, August.
- Aase, Knut Kristian, 1984. "Optimum portfolio diversification in a general continuous-time model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 81-98, September.
- Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007.
"Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching,"
Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control,
Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
- Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmerman, 2006. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Working Papers 2005-002, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Mark H. A. Davis & Sebastien Lleo, 2009. "Jump-Diffusion Risk-Sensitive Asset Management," Papers 0905.4740, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2010.
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