IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v85y2017icp59-89.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Optimal portfolios when variances and covariances can jump

Author

Listed:
  • Branger, Nicole
  • Muck, Matthias
  • Seifried, Frank Thomas
  • Weisheit, Stefan

Abstract

We analyze the optimal portfolio choice in a multi-asset Wishart-model in which return variances and correlations are stochastic and subject to jump risk. The optimal portfolio is characterized by the positions in stock diffusion risk, variance-covariance diffusion risk, and jump risk. We find that including jumps in the second moments changes the optimal positions and particularly variance-covariance hedging demands significantly. Erroneously omitting these jumps gives rise to substantial model risk. Furthermore, variance-covariance jump risk can have a significant impact on potential utility gains when the market is completed by adding derivatives. As a robustness check, we compare our results to those obtained for other parametrizations of Wishart-models from the literature as well as to various single-asset models.

Suggested Citation

  • Branger, Nicole & Muck, Matthias & Seifried, Frank Thomas & Weisheit, Stefan, 2017. "Optimal portfolios when variances and covariances can jump," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 59-89.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:85:y:2017:i:c:p:59-89
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2017.09.008
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188917302038
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.jedc.2017.09.008?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Bollerslev, Tim & Engle, Robert F & Wooldridge, Jeffrey M, 1988. "A Capital Asset Pricing Model with Time-Varying Covariances," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(1), pages 116-131, February.
    2. JosE Da Fonseca & Martino Grasselli & Claudio Tebaldi, 2008. "A multifactor volatility Heston model," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 8(6), pages 591-604.
    3. Merton, Robert C, 1973. "An Intertemporal Capital Asset Pricing Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 41(5), pages 867-887, September.
    4. Harry Markowitz, 1952. "Portfolio Selection," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 7(1), pages 77-91, March.
    5. Park, Yang-Ho, 2016. "The effects of asymmetric volatility and jumps on the pricing of VIX derivatives," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 192(1), pages 313-328.
    6. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    7. George Chacko & Luis M. Viceira, 2005. "Dynamic Consumption and Portfolio Choice with Stochastic Volatility in Incomplete Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(4), pages 1369-1402.
    8. Xing Jin & Allen X. Zhang, 2012. "Decomposition of Optimal Portfolio Weight in a Jump-Diffusion Model and Its Applications," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(9), pages 2877-2919.
    9. Chiarella, Carl & Hsiao, Chih-Ying & Tô, Thuy-Duong, 2016. "Stochastic correlation and risk premia in term structure models," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 59-78.
    10. Solnik, Bruno H., 1974. "An equilibrium model of the international capital market," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 500-524, August.
    11. Tim Bollerslev & George Tauchen & Hao Zhou, 2009. "Expected Stock Returns and Variance Risk Premia," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(11), pages 4463-4492, November.
    12. Muck, Matthias, 2010. "Trading strategies with partial access to the derivatives market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 1288-1298, June.
    13. Richter, Anja, 2014. "Explicit solutions to quadratic BSDEs and applications to utility maximization in multivariate affine stochastic volatility models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 124(11), pages 3578-3611.
    14. Pan, Jun, 2002. "The jump-risk premia implicit in options: evidence from an integrated time-series study," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 63(1), pages 3-50, January.
    15. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, February.
    16. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    17. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 2000. "Stochastic correlation across international stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 7(3-4), pages 373-388, November.
    18. Branger, Nicole & Schlag, Christian & Schneider, Eva, 2008. "Optimal portfolios when volatility can jump," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1087-1097, June.
    19. Paul A. Samuelson, 2011. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection by Dynamic Stochastic Programming," World Scientific Book Chapters, in: Leonard C MacLean & Edward O Thorp & William T Ziemba (ed.), THE KELLY CAPITAL GROWTH INVESTMENT CRITERION THEORY and PRACTICE, chapter 31, pages 465-472, World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd..
    20. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Raman Uppal, 2004. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2809-2834, December.
    21. Anna Cieslak & Pavol Povala, 2016. "Information in the Term Structure of Yield Curve Volatility," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1393-1436, June.
    22. Krishnan, C.N.V. & Petkova, Ralitsa & Ritchken, Peter, 2009. "Correlation risk," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 16(3), pages 353-367, June.
    23. Christa Cuchiero & Damir Filipovi'c & Eberhard Mayerhofer & Josef Teichmann, 2009. "Affine processes on positive semidefinite matrices," Papers 0910.0137, arXiv.org, revised Apr 2011.
    24. Wu, Liuren, 2003. "Jumps and Dynamic Asset Allocation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 207-243, May.
    25. Jin, Xing & Zhang, Kun, 2013. "Dynamic optimal portfolio choice in a jump-diffusion model with investment constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1733-1746.
    26. Mayerhofer, Eberhard & Muhle-Karbe, Johannes & Smirnov, Alexander G., 2011. "A characterization of the martingale property of exponentially affine processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 121(3), pages 568-582, March.
    27. José Da Fonseca & Martino Grasselli & Florian Ielpo, 2011. "Hedging (Co)Variance Risk With Variance Swaps," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 14(06), pages 899-943.
    28. Branger, Nicole & Hansis, Alexandra, 2012. "Asset allocation: How much does model choice matter?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 1865-1882.
    29. Egloff, Daniel & Leippold, Markus & Wu, Liuren, 2010. "The Term Structure of Variance Swap Rates and Optimal Variance Swap Investments," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(5), pages 1279-1310, October.
    30. Ralf Korn & Holger Kraft, 2004. "On The Stability Of Continuous‐Time Portfolio Problems With Stochastic Opportunity Set," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 14(3), pages 403-414, July.
    31. Andrea Buraschi & Paolo Porchia & Fabio Trojani, 2010. "Correlation Risk and Optimal Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 393-420, February.
    32. Branger, Nicole & Hansis, Alexandra, 2015. "Earning the right premium on the right factor in portfolio planning," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 367-383.
    33. Adler, Michael & Dumas, Bernard, 1983. "International Portfolio Choice and Corporation Finance: A Synthesis," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 38(3), pages 925-984, June.
    34. Vasiliki D. Skintzi & Apostolos‐Paul N. Refenes, 2005. "Implied correlation index: A new measure of diversification," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 25(2), pages 171-197, February.
    35. Merton, Robert C, 1969. "Lifetime Portfolio Selection under Uncertainty: The Continuous-Time Case," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 51(3), pages 247-257, August.
    36. Branger, Nicole & Muck, Matthias, 2012. "Keep on smiling? The pricing of Quanto options when all covariances are stochastic," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(6), pages 1577-1591.
    37. Ball, Clifford A. & Torous, Walter N., 2000. "Stochastic Correlation Across International Stock Markets," University of California at Los Angeles, Anderson Graduate School of Management qt6vn9q79w, Anderson Graduate School of Management, UCLA.
    38. Longin, Francois & Solnik, Bruno, 1995. "Is the correlation in international equity returns constant: 1960-1990?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 3-26, February.
    39. Gurdip Bakshi & Nikunj Kapadia, 2003. "Delta-Hedged Gains and the Negative Market Volatility Risk Premium," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 527-566.
    40. Low, Buen Sin & Zhang, Shaojun, 2005. "The Volatility Risk Premium Embedded in Currency Options," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(4), pages 803-832, December.
    41. Peter Carr & Liuren Wu, 2009. "Variance Risk Premiums," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(3), pages 1311-1341, March.
    42. Liu, Jun & Pan, Jun, 2003. "Dynamic derivative strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 401-430, September.
    43. Holger Kraft, 2005. "Optimal portfolios and Heston's stochastic volatility model: an explicit solution for power utility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(3), pages 303-313.
    44. Munk, Claus & Sørensen, Carsten, 2010. "Dynamic asset allocation with stochastic income and interest rates," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(3), pages 433-462, June.
    45. Ballotta, Laura & Deelstra, Griselda & Rayée, Grégory, 2017. "Multivariate FX models with jumps: Triangles, Quantos and implied correlation," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 260(3), pages 1181-1199.
    46. Bandi, F.M. & Renò, R., 2016. "Price and volatility co-jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 107-146.
    47. Joost Driessen & Pascal J. Maenhout & Grigory Vilkov, 2009. "The Price of Correlation Risk: Evidence from Equity Options," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(3), pages 1377-1406, June.
    48. Cheridito, Patrick & Filipovic, Damir & Kimmel, Robert L., 2007. "Market price of risk specifications for affine models: Theory and evidence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 123-170, January.
    49. Jan Kallsen & Johannes Muhle-Karbe, 2010. "Utility Maximization In Affine Stochastic Volatility Models," International Journal of Theoretical and Applied Finance (IJTAF), World Scientific Publishing Co. Pte. Ltd., vol. 13(03), pages 459-477.
    50. Jun Liu, 2007. "Portfolio Selection in Stochastic Environments," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 20(1), pages 1-39, January.
    51. José Fonseca & Martino Grasselli & Claudio Tebaldi, 2007. "Option pricing when correlations are stochastic: an analytical framework," Review of Derivatives Research, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 151-180, May.
    52. Viktor Todorov, 2010. "Variance Risk-Premium Dynamics: The Role of Jumps," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 23(1), pages 345-383, January.
    53. Laurini, Márcio Poletti & Mauad, Roberto Baltieri, 2015. "A common jump factor stochastic volatility model," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 12(C), pages 2-10.
    54. Joshua D. Coval & Tyler Shumway, 2001. "Expected Option Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(3), pages 983-1009, June.
    55. Tobias J. Moskowitz, 2003. "An Analysis of Covariance Risk and Pricing Anomalies," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 16(2), pages 417-457.
    56. Christian Gourieroux & Razvan Sufana, 2004. "Derivative Pricing with Multivariate Stochastic Volatility : Application to Credit Risk," Working Papers 2004-31, Center for Research in Economics and Statistics.
    57. Kallsen, Jan & Muhle-Karbe, Johannes, 2010. "Exponentially affine martingales, affine measure changes and exponential moments of affine processes," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 120(2), pages 163-181, February.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Díaz, Antonio & Esparcia, Carlos, 2021. "Dynamic optimal portfolio choice under time-varying risk aversion," International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 166(C), pages 1-22.
    2. Liu, Guo & Jin, Zhuo & Li, Shuanming, 2021. "Household Lifetime Strategies under a Self-Contagious Market," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 288(3), pages 935-952.
    3. Arouri, Mohamed & M’saddek, Oussama & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara, 2019. "Cojumps and asset allocation in international equity markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 1-22.
    4. Nicole Branger & Matthias Muck & Stefan Weisheit, 2019. "Correlation risk and international portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-146, January.
    5. Mayerhofer, Eberhard & Stelzer, Robert & Vestweber, Johanna, 2020. "Geometric ergodicity of affine processes on cones," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 130(7), pages 4141-4173.
    6. An Chen & Thai Nguyen & Manuel Rach, 2021. "A collective investment problem in a stochastic volatility environment: The impact of sharing rules," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 302(1), pages 85-109, July.
    7. Liu, Guo & Jin, Zhuo & Li, Shuanming, 2021. "Optimal investment, consumption, and life insurance strategies under a mutual-exciting contagious market," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(PB), pages 508-524.
    8. Oliva, I. & Renò, R., 2018. "Optimal portfolio allocation with volatility and co-jump risk that Markowitz would like," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 242-256.
    9. Marcos Escobar-Anel & Harold A. Moreno-Franco, 2019. "Dynamic portfolio strategies under a fully correlated jump-diffusion process," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 15(3), pages 421-453, September.
    10. Branger, Nicole & Herold, Michael & Muck, Matthias, 2021. "International stochastic discount factors and covariance risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 123(C).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Nicole Branger & Matthias Muck & Stefan Weisheit, 2019. "Correlation risk and international portfolio choice," Journal of Futures Markets, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 128-146, January.
    2. Larsen, Linda Sandris & Munk, Claus, 2012. "The costs of suboptimal dynamic asset allocation: General results and applications to interest rate risk, stock volatility risk, and growth/value tilts," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 266-293.
    3. Filipović, Damir & Gourier, Elise & Mancini, Loriano, 2016. "Quadratic variance swap models," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(1), pages 44-68.
    4. Marcos Escobar & Sebastian Ferrando & Alexey Rubtsov, 2017. "Optimal investment under multi-factor stochastic volatility," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(2), pages 241-260, February.
    5. Oliva, I. & Renò, R., 2018. "Optimal portfolio allocation with volatility and co-jump risk that Markowitz would like," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 94(C), pages 242-256.
    6. Chenxu Li & Olivier Scaillet & Yiwen Shen, 2020. "Wealth Effect on Portfolio Allocation in Incomplete Markets," Papers 2004.10096, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2021.
    7. Branger, Nicole & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2014. "Partial information about contagion risk, self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 18-36.
    8. Richter, Anja, 2014. "Explicit solutions to quadratic BSDEs and applications to utility maximization in multivariate affine stochastic volatility models," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 124(11), pages 3578-3611.
    9. Escobar, Marcos & Ferrando, Sebastian & Rubtsov, Alexey, 2015. "Robust portfolio choice with derivative trading under stochastic volatility," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 142-157.
    10. Chenxu Li & O. Scaillet & Yiwen Shen, 2020. "Decomposition of Optimal Dynamic Portfolio Choice with Wealth-Dependent Utilities in Incomplete Markets," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 20-22, Swiss Finance Institute.
    11. Jin, Xing & Zhang, Kun, 2013. "Dynamic optimal portfolio choice in a jump-diffusion model with investment constraints," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(5), pages 1733-1746.
    12. Branger, Nicole & Mahayni, Antje & Zieling, Daniel, 2015. "Robustness of stable volatility strategies," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 134-151.
    13. Neumann, Maximilian & Prokopczuk, Marcel & Wese Simen, Chardin, 2016. "Jump and variance risk premia in the S&P 500," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 72-83.
    14. Hui Guo & Christopher J. Neely & Jason Higbee, 2008. "Foreign Exchange Volatility Is Priced in Equities," Financial Management, Financial Management Association International, vol. 37(4), pages 769-790, December.
    15. An Chen & Thai Nguyen & Manuel Rach, 2021. "A collective investment problem in a stochastic volatility environment: The impact of sharing rules," Annals of Operations Research, Springer, vol. 302(1), pages 85-109, July.
    16. Chiu, Mei Choi & Wong, Hoi Ying, 2014. "Mean–variance asset–liability management with asset correlation risk and insurance liabilities," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 300-310.
    17. Amengual, Dante & Xiu, Dacheng, 2018. "Resolution of policy uncertainty and sudden declines in volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 203(2), pages 297-315.
    18. Rytchkov, Oleg, 2016. "Time-Varying Margin Requirements and Optimal Portfolio Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 655-683, April.
    19. Anna Battauz & Alessandro Sbuelz, 2018. "Non†myopic portfolio choice with unpredictable returns: The jump†to†default case," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 24(2), pages 192-208, March.
    20. Immacolata Oliva & Ilaria Stefani, 2023. "Co-jumps and recursive preferences in portfolio choices," Annals of Finance, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 291-324, September.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Optimal portfolio choice; Stochastic correlation; Wishart process; Derivatives; Jump risk; Covariance jumps;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:85:y:2017:i:c:p:59-89. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.