IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/dyncon/v39y2014icp18-36.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Partial information about contagion risk, self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization

Author

Listed:
  • Branger, Nicole
  • Kraft, Holger
  • Meinerding, Christoph

Abstract

This paper compares two classes of models that allow for additional channels of correlation between asset returns: regime switching models with jumps and models with contagious jumps. Both classes of models involve a hidden Markov chain that captures good and bad economic states. The distinctive feature of a model with contagious jumps is that large negative returns and unobservable transitions of the economy into a bad state can occur simultaneously. We show that in this framework the filtered loss intensities have dynamics similar to self-exciting processes. Besides, we study the impact of unobservable contagious jumps on optimal portfolio strategies and filtering.

Suggested Citation

  • Branger, Nicole & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2014. "Partial information about contagion risk, self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 18-36.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:18-36
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jedc.2013.10.005
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0165188913002017
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Turner, C.M. & Startz, R. & Nelson, C.R., 1989. "The Markov Model Of Heteroskedasticity, Risk And Learning In The Stock Market," Discussion Papers in Economics at the University of Washington 89-01, Department of Economics at the University of Washington.
    2. Rüdiger Frey & Thorsten Schmidt, 2012. "Pricing and hedging of credit derivatives via the innovations approach to nonlinear filtering," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 16(1), pages 105-133, January.
    3. Branger, Nicole & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2009. "What is the impact of stock market contagion on an investor's portfolio choice?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 94-112, August.
    4. Nicole Bäuerle & Ulrich Rieder, 2007. "Portfolio Optimization With Jumps And Unobservable Intensity Process," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 17(2), pages 205-224.
    5. Liu, Jun & Pan, Jun, 2003. "Dynamic derivative strategies," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(3), pages 401-430, September.
    6. Bjørn Eraker & Michael Johannes & Nicholas Polson, 2003. "The Impact of Jumps in Volatility and Returns," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(3), pages 1269-1300, June.
    7. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert, 2002. "International Asset Allocation With Regime Shifts," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 15(4), pages 1137-1187.
    8. Merton, Robert C., 1971. "Optimum consumption and portfolio rules in a continuous-time model," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 3(4), pages 373-413, December.
    9. Liu, Hening, 2011. "Dynamic portfolio choice under ambiguity and regime switching mean returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 623-640, April.
    10. Björk, Tomas & Davis, Mark H.A. & Landén, Camilla, 2010. "Optimal Investment under Partial Information," SSE/EFI Working Paper Series in Economics and Finance 739, Stockholm School of Economics.
    11. Jun Liu & Francis A. Longstaff & Jun Pan, 2003. "Dynamic Asset Allocation with Event Risk," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(1), pages 231-259, February.
    12. Branger, Nicole & Schlag, Christian & Schneider, Eva, 2008. "Optimal portfolios when volatility can jump," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1087-1097, June.
    13. Kraft, Holger & Steffensen, Mogens, 2009. "Asset allocation with contagion and explicit bankruptcy procedures," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 147-167, January.
    14. Giorgia Callegaro & Giovanni Masi & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2006. "Portfolio Optimization in Discontinuous Markets under Incomplete Information," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 13(4), pages 373-394, December.
    15. Liu, Jun & Peleg, Ehud & Subrahmanyam, Avanidhar, 2010. "Information, Expected Utility, and Portfolio Choice," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(05), pages 1221-1251, October.
    16. Rüdiger Frey & Wolfgang Runggaldier, 2010. "Pricing credit derivatives under incomplete information: a nonlinear-filtering approach," Finance and Stochastics, Springer, vol. 14(4), pages 495-526, December.
    17. Dothan, Michael U & Feldman, David, 1986. " Equilibrium Interest Rates and Multiperiod Bonds in a Partially Observable Economy," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 369-382, June.
    18. Sanjiv Ranjan Das & Raman Uppal, 2004. "Systemic Risk and International Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 59(6), pages 2809-2834, December.
    19. Kole, Erik & Koedijk, Kees & Verbeek, Marno, 2006. "Portfolio implications of systemic crises," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 30(8), pages 2347-2369, August.
    20. Schwert, G William, 1989. " Why Does Stock Market Volatility Change over Time?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 44(5), pages 1115-1153, December.
    21. Wu, Liuren, 2003. "Jumps and Dynamic Asset Allocation," Review of Quantitative Finance and Accounting, Springer, vol. 20(3), pages 207-243, May.
    22. Guidolin, Massimo & Timmermann, Allan, 2007. "Asset allocation under multivariate regime switching," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3503-3544, November.
    23. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    24. Massimo Guidolin & Allan Timmermann, 2008. "International asset allocation under regime switching, skew, and kurtosis preferences," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(2), pages 889-935, April.
    25. Joao F. Cocco, 2005. "Consumption and Portfolio Choice over the Life Cycle," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 18(2), pages 491-533.
    26. Detemple, Jerome B, 1986. " Asset Pricing in a Production Economy with Incomplete Information," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 41(2), pages 383-391, June.
    27. Kraft, Holger & Steffensen, Mogens, 2008. "How to invest optimally in corporate bonds: A reduced-form approach," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 348-385, February.
    28. Lubos Pastor & Pietro Veronesi, 2009. "Learning in Financial Markets," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 1(1), pages 361-381, November.
    29. Mark H. A. Davis & Sebastien Lleo, 2009. "Jump-Diffusion Risk-Sensitive Asset Management," Papers 0905.4740, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2010.
    30. Honda, Toshiki, 2003. "Optimal portfolio choice for unobservable and regime-switching mean returns," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 45-78, October.
    31. Andrea Buraschi & Paolo Porchia & Fabio Trojani, 2010. "Correlation Risk and Optimal Portfolio Choice," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 393-420, February.
    32. Aase, Knut Kristian, 1984. "Optimum portfolio diversification in a general continuous-time model," Stochastic Processes and their Applications, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 81-98, September.
    33. Ait-Sahalia, Yacine, 2004. "Disentangling diffusion from jumps," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 487-528, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Asset allocation; Contagion; Nonlinear filtering; Hidden state; Self-exciting processes;

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G11 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Portfolio Choice; Investment Decisions

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:dyncon:v:39:y:2014:i:c:p:18-36. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Dana Niculescu). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/jedc .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.