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What is the Impact of Stock Market Contagion on an Investor's Portfolio Choice?

Author

Listed:
  • Nicole Branger

  • Holger Kraft

  • Christoph Meinerding

Abstract

Stocks are exposed to the risk of sudden downward jumps. Additionally, a crash in one stock (or index) can increase the risk of crashes in other stocks (or indices). Our pape explicitly takes this contagion risk into account and studies its impact on the portfolio decision of a CRRA investor both in complete and in incomplete market settings. We find that the investor significantly adjusts his portfolio when contagion is more likely to occur. Capturing the time dimension of contagion, i.e. the time span between jumps in two stocks or stock indices, is thus of first-order importance when analyzing portfolio decisions. Investors ignoring contagion completely or accounting for contagion while ignoring its time dimension suffer large and economically significant utility losses. These losses are larger in complete than in incomplete markets, and the investor might be better off if he does not trade derivatives. Furthermore, we emphasize that the risk of contagion has a crucial impact on investors' security demands, since it reduces their ability to diversify their portfolios.

Suggested Citation

  • Nicole Branger & Holger Kraft & Christoph Meinerding, 2009. "What is the Impact of Stock Market Contagion on an Investor's Portfolio Choice?," Working Paper Series: Finance and Accounting 198, Department of Finance, Goethe University Frankfurt am Main.
    • Handle: RePEc:fra:franaf:198
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    2. Karimi, Parinaz & Mirzaee Ghazani, Majid & Ebrahimi, Seyed Babak, 2023. "Analyzing spillover effects of selected cryptocurrencies on gold and brent crude oil under COVID-19 pandemic: Evidence from GJR-GARCH and EVT copula methods," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
    3. Branger, Nicole & Kraft, Holger & Meinerding, Christoph, 2014. "Partial information about contagion risk, self-exciting processes and portfolio optimization," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 18-36.
    4. Zhou, Wei & Huang, Yang & Chen, Jin, 2018. "The bubble and anti-bubble risk resistance analysis on the metal futures in China," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 503(C), pages 947-957.
    5. Patrick Konermann & Christoph Meinerding & Olga Sedova, 2013. "Asset allocation in markets with contagion: The interplay between volatilities, jump intensities, and correlations," Review of Financial Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 22(1), pages 36-46, January.
    6. Ma, Yong & Jiang, Hao & Xiao, Weilin, 2021. "Tax evasion, audits with memory, and portfolio choice," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 896-909.
    7. Buccioli, Alice & Kokholm, Thomas & Nicolosi, Marco, 2019. "Expected shortfall and portfolio management in contagious markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C), pages 100-115.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing

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