IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/rjr/romjef/vy2016i4p115-134.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

On the Linkage between the International Crude Oil Price and Stock Markets: Evidence from the Nordic and Other European Oil Importing and Oil Exporting Countries

Author

Listed:
  • Murad A. BEIN

    () (Department of Accounting and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Cyprus International University. Lefkosa, via Mersin 10, Turkey.)

  • Mehmet AGA

    () (Department of Accounting and Finance, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Cyprus International University. Lefkosa, via Mersin 10, Turkey.)

Abstract

The paper investigates the interrelationship between the stock market and the crude oil price for the Nordic countries (Denmark, Finland, Iceland, Norway, and Sweden) and two other European countries that have the highest imports (Germany) and exports (Russia) of oil using data from 1995 to the end of 2015. We found that the time-varying correlation among the oil exporting (importing) countries are different. We also found that the two oil exporting countries (Norway and Russia) have higher integration with the Brent and West Texas Intermediate (WTI) oil indices, which reveals that these markets are less attractive to international investors during periods of high turbulence. Furthermore, contrary to previous literature documenting negative relations between the stock market and crude oil, our results demonstrate that, although the negative association was evident up to the period prior to the global financial crisis (GFC), starting from the GFC period (especially for the oil importing countries), we noticed a positive time-varying relationship that continued until the end of our sample study. In addition, the time-varying correlation response was more pronounced during the financial market turmoil of 2015. Further, we investigated the two price indices (Brent and WTI) using the Markov regime-switching autoregressive (MRS-AR) approach to model periods of high volatility (turbulence) and low volatility (stable period). The Markov model revealed that in regime 0 (1998-2002, 2008-2009, and 2015), which can be characterized as the most volatile period for the oil market, the probability reached close to 1. We noticed that during the GFC and in the period prior to the GFC, the time-varying relationship was positive and at a higher level in high-volatility regimes, whereas during low-volatility regimes the time-varying relationship was negative and at a low level.

Suggested Citation

  • Murad A. BEIN & Mehmet AGA, 2016. "On the Linkage between the International Crude Oil Price and Stock Markets: Evidence from the Nordic and Other European Oil Importing and Oil Exporting Countries," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 115-134, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:4:p:115-134
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.ipe.ro/rjef/rjef4_16/rjef4_2016p115-134.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Drost, Feike C & Nijman, Theo E, 1993. "Temporal Aggregation of GARCH Processes," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 61(4), pages 909-927, July.
    2. Robert F. Engle & Jose Gonzalo Rangel, 2008. "The Spline-GARCH Model for Low-Frequency Volatility and Its Global Macroeconomic Causes," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 21(3), pages 1187-1222, May.
    3. Park, Jungwook & Ratti, Ronald A., 2008. "Oil price shocks and stock markets in the U.S. and 13 European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(5), pages 2587-2608, September.
    4. Bouri, Elie, 2015. "Oil volatility shocks and the stock markets of oil-importing MENA economies: A tale from the financial crisis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 590-598.
    5. Arouri, Mohamed El Hedi & Lahiani, Amine & Nguyen, Duc Khuong, 2011. "Return and volatility transmission between world oil prices and stock markets of the GCC countries," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 1815-1825, July.
    6. Filis, George & Degiannakis, Stavros & Floros, Christos, 2011. "Dynamic correlation between stock market and oil prices: The case of oil-importing and oil-exporting countries," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 152-164, June.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    8. Sadorsky, Perry, 1999. "Oil price shocks and stock market activity," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 21(5), pages 449-469, October.
    9. Jones, Charles M & Kaul, Gautam, 1996. " Oil and the Stock Markets," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(2), pages 463-491, June.
    10. Avdulaj, Krenar & Barunik, Jozef, 2015. "Are benefits from oil–stocks diversification gone? New evidence from a dynamic copula and high frequency data," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 31-44.
    11. Backus, David K. & Crucini, Mario J., 2000. "Oil prices and the terms of trade," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 50(1), pages 185-213, February.
    12. Hamilton, James D., 1990. "Analysis of time series subject to changes in regime," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1-2), pages 39-70.
    13. Sadorsky, Perry, 2006. "Modeling and forecasting petroleum futures volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(4), pages 467-488, July.
    14. Juan Reboredo, 2010. "Nonlinear effects of oil shocks on stock returns: a Markov-switching approach," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 42(29), pages 3735-3744.
    15. Moore, Tomoe & Wang, Ping, 2014. "Dynamic linkage between real exchange rates and stock prices: Evidence from developed and emerging Asian markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 1-11.
    16. Reboredo, Juan C. & Rivera-Castro, Miguel A. & Ugolini, Andrea, 2016. "Downside and upside risk spillovers between exchange rates and stock prices," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 62(C), pages 76-96.
    17. Melike Bildirici & Özgür Ömer Ersin, 2014. "Nonlinearity, Volatility and Fractional Integration in Daily Oil Prices: Smooth Transition Autoregressive ST-FI(AP)GARCH Models," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(3), pages 108-135, October.
    18. Corina Saman, 2015. "Asymmetric Interaction between Stock Price Index and Exchange Rates: Empirical Evidence for Romania," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(4), pages 90-109, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Dohyun CHUN & Hoon CHO & Doojin RYU, 2018. "Macroeconomic Structural Changes in a Leading Emerging Market: The Effects of the Asian Financial Crisis," Journal for Economic Forecasting, Institute for Economic Forecasting, vol. 0(2), pages 22-42, December.
    2. Dejan Živkov & Jovan Njegiæ & Mirela Momèiloviæ, 2018. "Bidirectional spillover effect between Russian stock index and the selected commodities," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 36(1), pages 29-53.
    3. Daniel Ştefan Armeanu & Camelia Cătălina Joldeş & Ştefan Cristian Gherghina, 2019. "On the Linkage between the Energy Market and Stock Returns: Evidence from Romania," Energies, MDPI, Open Access Journal, vol. 12(8), pages 1-21, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    oil price; oil importing; oil exporting volatility; financial crisis;

    JEL classification:

    • C5 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets
    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets
    • Q4 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rjr:romjef:v::y:2016:i:4:p:115-134. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Corina Saman). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/ipacaro.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.