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On the Effect of Bank of Japan’s Outright Purchase on the JGB Yield Curve

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  • Masafumi Nakano

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Akihiko Takahashi

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Soichiro Takahashi

    (University of Tokyo)

  • Takami Tokioka

    (GCI Asset Management)

Abstract

This paper examines an impact of Bank of Japan (BOJ)’s outright purchase on the Japanese government bond (JGB) yield curve. Particularly, we develop a simple state space model, which incorporates new factors regarding the BOJ’s announcement for its outright purchase and the current market outstanding with standard level and spread factors. Based on the model with a filtering method, we also implement an empirical analysis with time series of the BOJ’s announcement records during 2014/10/22–2017/8/3 in the quantitative–qualitative easing period to estimate the sensitivities of interest rates against the changes in the market expectation for the net supply with each sector of JGB. We expect the current work provides a basis for considering quantitative effects on the term structure by BOJ’s policy changes such as termination or significant reduction of the BOJ’s outright purchase. For instance, our scenario analysis shows substantial increase in the 30 year yield with widening of 20–30 year spread.

Suggested Citation

  • Masafumi Nakano & Akihiko Takahashi & Soichiro Takahashi & Takami Tokioka, 2018. "On the Effect of Bank of Japan’s Outright Purchase on the JGB Yield Curve," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 25(1), pages 47-70, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:kap:apfinm:v:25:y:2018:i:1:d:10.1007_s10690-018-9238-5
    DOI: 10.1007/s10690-018-9238-5
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    Cited by:

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    2. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2019. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," Asia-Pacific Financial Markets, Springer;Japanese Association of Financial Economics and Engineering, vol. 26(3), pages 297-337, September.
    3. Inaba, Kei-Ichiro, 2020. "Japan’s impactful augmentation of quantitative easing sovereign-bond purchases," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
    4. Souta Nakatani & Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Taiga Saito & Akihiko Takahashi, 2020. "Interest Rate Model with Investor Attitude and Text Mining," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1152, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.
    5. Kiyohiko G. Nishimura & Seisho Sato & Akihiko Takahashi, 2018. "Term Structure Models During the Global Financial Crisis: A Parsimonious Text Mining Approach," CIRJE F-Series CIRJE-F-1101, CIRJE, Faculty of Economics, University of Tokyo.

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