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International crises, instability periods and contagion: the case of the ERM

  • Emanuele Bacchiocchi

    ()

  • Marta Bevilacqua

    ()

In this paper we propose a two step procedure for modelling the propagation of financial shocks. The first step consists in the estimation, by means of SWARCH models, of the conditional probability of being in a period of high volatility while, in the second step such indicators are included in a structural simultaneous models for interdependences among different countries. The results show that episodes of financial crisis effectively happened during periods of high volatility and that such measures of instability are important in explaining the propagation of devaluation expectations between six European Countries during the ERM period.

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File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1007/s12232-009-0064-y
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Article provided by Springer in its journal International Review of Economics.

Volume (Year): 56 (2009)
Issue (Month): 2 (June)
Pages: 105-122

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Handle: RePEc:spr:inrvec:v:56:y:2009:i:2:p:105-122
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  1. Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
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  7. Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 574, Econometric Society.
  8. Marcel Fratzscher, 2000. "On Currency Crises and Contagion," Working Paper Series WP00-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
  9. Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
  10. Melvyn Weeks & Mark R. Stone, 2001. "Systemic Financial Crises, Balance Sheets, and Model Uncertainity," IMF Working Papers 01/162, International Monetary Fund.
  11. W. R. M. Perraudin & Manmohan S. Kumar & Uma Moorthy, 2002. "Predicting Emerging Market Currency Crashes," IMF Working Papers 02/7, International Monetary Fund.
  12. King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990. "Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
  13. Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222.
  14. Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
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