International Crisis, Instability Periods and Contagion: The Case of the ERM
In this paper we propose a two step procedure for modelling the propagation of financial shocks. The first step consists in the estimation, by means of SWARCH models, of the conditional probability of being in a period of high volatility while, in the second step such indicators are included in a structural simultaneous models for interdependences among different countries. The results show that episodes of financial crisis effectively happened during periods of high volatility and that such measures of instability are important in explaining the propagation of devaluation expectations between six European Countries during the ERM period.
|Date of creation:||28 Oct 2008|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Via Conservatorio 7 - 20122 Milano|
Phone: +39 02 503 16486
Fax: +39 02 503 16475
Web page: http://services.bepress.com/unimi
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pesaran, M.H. & Pick, A., 2004.
"Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Contagion,"
Cambridge Working Papers in Economics
0402, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2004. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Contagion," Money Macro and Finance (MMF) Research Group Conference 2004 67, Money Macro and Finance Research Group.
- M. Hashem Pesaran & Andreas Pick, 2004. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Contagion," CESifo Working Paper Series 1176, CESifo Group Munich.
- Kumar, Mohan & Moorthy, Uma & Perraudin, William, 2003.
"Predicting emerging market currency crashes,"
Journal of Empirical Finance,
Elsevier, vol. 10(4), pages 427-454, September.
- Melvyn Weeks & Mark R. Stone, 2001. "Systemic Financial Crises, Balance Sheets, and Model Uncertainity," IMF Working Papers 01/162, International Monetary Fund.
- Marcel Fratzscher, 2000.
"On Currency Crises and Contagion,"
Working Paper Series
WP00-9, Peterson Institute for International Economics.
- Kristin J. Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 2002.
"No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Comovements,"
Journal of Finance,
American Finance Association, vol. 57(5), pages 2223-2261, October.
- Kristin Forbes & Roberto Rigobon, 1999. "No Contagion, Only Interdependence: Measuring Stock Market Co-movements," NBER Working Papers 7267, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Eichengreen, Barry & Rose, Andrew & Wyplosz, Charles, 1996. " Contagious Currency Crises: First Tests," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 98(4), pages 463-84, December.
- Massacci, D., 2007. "Identification and Estimation in an Incoherent Model of Contagion," Cambridge Working Papers in Economics 0744, Faculty of Economics, University of Cambridge.
- Martin, V. & Dungey & M., 2004.
"Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies,"
Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings
574, Econometric Society.
- Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo & Vance Martin, 2005. "Empirical modelling of contagion: a review of methodologies," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(1), pages 9-24.
- Mardi Dungey & Renee Fry & Vance Martin & Brenda GonzÃ¡lez-Hermosillo, 2004. "Empirical Modeling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," IMF Working Papers 04/78, International Monetary Fund.
- Vance L. Martin & Brenda Gonzalez-Hermosillo, & Mardi Dungey & Renee A. Fry, 2004. "Empirical Modelling of Contagion: A Review of Methodologies," Econometric Society 2004 Australasian Meetings 243, Econometric Society.
- Giampiero Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2006.
"Volatility Transmission Across Markets: A Multi-Chain Markov Switching Model,"
Econometrics Working Papers Archive
wp2006_04, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti".
- Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2007. "Volatility transmission across markets: a Multichain Markov Switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 659-670.
- Helen Higgs & Andrew Worthington, 2004. "Transmission of returns and volatility in art markets: a multivariate GARCH analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 217-222.
- King, Mervyn A & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1990.
"Transmission of Volatility between Stock Markets,"
Review of Financial Studies,
Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(1), pages 5-33.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Roberto Rigobon, 2003. "Identification Through Heteroskedasticity," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 777-792, November.
- Hamao, Yasushi & Masulis, Ronald W & Ng, Victor, 1990. "Correlations in Price Changes and Volatility across International Stock Markets," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 3(2), pages 281-307.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bep:unimip:unimi-1079. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Christopher F. Baum)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.