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International Crisis, Instability Periods and Contagion: The Case of the ERM

Author

Listed:
  • Emanuele Bacchiocchi

    (University of Milan)

  • Marta Bevilacqua

Abstract

In this paper we propose a two step procedure for modelling the propagation of financial shocks. The first step consists in the estimation, by means of SWARCH models, of the conditional probability of being in a period of high volatility while, in the second step such indicators are included in a structural simultaneous models for interdependences among different countries. The results show that episodes of financial crisis effectively happened during periods of high volatility and that such measures of instability are important in explaining the propagation of devaluation expectations between six European Countries during the ERM period.

Suggested Citation

  • Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Marta Bevilacqua, 2008. "International Crisis, Instability Periods and Contagion: The Case of the ERM," UNIMI - Research Papers in Economics, Business, and Statistics unimi-1079, Universitá degli Studi di Milano.
    • Handle: RePEc:bep:unimip:unimi-1079
    Note: oai:cdlib1:unimi-1079
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    1. is not listed on IDEAS
    2. Listorti, Giulia & Esposti, Roberto, . "Horizontal Price Transmission in Agricultural Markets: Fundamental Concepts and Open Empirical Issues," Bio-based and Applied Economics Journal, Italian Association of Agricultural and Applied Economics (AIEAA), vol. 1(01), pages 1-28.
    3. Emanuele Bacchiocchi, 2017. "On the Identification of Interdependence and Contagion of Financial Crises," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 79(6), pages 1148-1175, December.
    4. Chang, Guang-Di & Chen, Chia-Shih, 2014. "Evidence of contagion in global REITs investment," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(C), pages 148-158.
    5. Emanuele BACCHIOCCHI, 2011. "Identification through heteroskedasticity: a likelihood-based approach," Departmental Working Papers 2011-19, Department of Economics, Management and Quantitative Methods at Università degli Studi di Milano.
    6. Chang, Guang-Di & Cheng, Po-Ching, 2016. "Evidence of cross-asset contagion in U.S. markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 219-226.

    More about this item

    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • C3 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables
    • E3 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles
    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance

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