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Volatility transmission across markets: a Multichain Markov Switching model

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  • Giampiero M. Gallo
  • Edoardo Otranto

Abstract

The integration of financial markets across countries has modified the way prices react to news. Innovations originating in one market diffuse to other markets following patterns which usually stress the presence of interdependence. In some cases, though, covariances across markets have an asymmetric component which reflects the dominance of one over the others. The volatility transmission mechanisms in such events may be more complex than what can be modelled as a multivariate GARCH model. In this article, we adopt a new Markov Switching approach and we suppose that periods of high volatility and periods of low volatility represent the states of an ergodic Markov Chain where the transition probability is made dependent on the state of the 'dominant' series. We provide some theoretical background, and illustrate the model on Asian markets data showing support for the idea of dominant market and the good prediction performance of the model on a multi-period horizon.

Suggested Citation

  • Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2007. "Volatility transmission across markets: a Multichain Markov Switching model," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 17(8), pages 659-670.
  • Handle: RePEc:taf:apfiec:v:17:y:2007:i:8:p:659-670 DOI: 10.1080/09603100600722151
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    Cited by:

    1. Bubák, Vít & Kocenda, Evzen & Zikes, Filip, 2011. "Volatility transmission in emerging European foreign exchange markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 35(11), pages 2829-2841, November.
    2. Edoardo Otranto & Romana Gargano, 2015. "Financial clustering in presence of dominant markets," Advances in Data Analysis and Classification, Springer;German Classification Society - Gesellschaft für Klassifikation (GfKl);Japanese Classification Society (JCS);Classification and Data Analysis Group of the Italian Statistical Society (CLADAG);International Federation of Classification Societies (IFCS), vol. 9(3), pages 315-339, September.
    3. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-500 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Awartani, Basel & Hilu, Khalil Al, 2015. "Dynamic transmissions between the U.S. and equity markets in the MENA countries: New evidence from pre- and post-global financial crisis," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 123-138.
    5. Gagliardini, Patrick & Gouriéroux, Christian, 2013. "Correlated risks vs contagion in stochastic transition models," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 2241-2269.
    6. A. Khalifa & S. Hammoudeh & E. Otranto, 2012. "Volatility Spillover, Interdependence, Comovements across GCC, Oil and U.S. Markets and Portfolio Management Strategies in a Regime-Changing Environment," Working Paper CRENoS 201209, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    7. Awartani, Basel & Maghyereh, Aktham I. & Shiab, Mohammad Al, 2013. "Directional spillovers from the U.S. and the Saudi market to equities in the Gulf Cooperation Council countries," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 27(C), pages 224-242.
    8. Margherita Velucchi, 2009. "Regime switching: Italian financial markets over a century," Statistical Methods & Applications, Springer;Società Italiana di Statistica, vol. 18(1), pages 67-86, March.
    9. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2014. "Forecasting Realized Volatility with Changes of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2014_03, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Feb 2014.
    10. Khalifa, Ahmed A.A. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Otranto, Edoardo, 2014. "Extracting portfolio management strategies from volatility transmission models in regime-changing environments: Evidence from GCC and global markets," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 365-374.
    11. Koulakiotis, Athanasios & Dasilas, Apostolos & Papasyriopoulos, Nicholas, 2009. "Volatility and error transmission spillover effects: Evidence from three European financial regions," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 858-869, August.
    12. A. Maghyereh & B. Awartani, 2012. "Return and volatility spillovers between Dubai financial market and Abu Dhabi Stock Exchange in the UAE," Applied Financial Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, pages 837-848.
    13. Giampiero M. Gallo & Edoardo Otranto, 2012. "Realized Volatility and Change of Regimes," Econometrics Working Papers Archive 2012_02, Universita' degli Studi di Firenze, Dipartimento di Statistica, Informatica, Applicazioni "G. Parenti", revised Jul 2012.
    14. Khalifa, Ahmed A. & Alsarhan, Abdulwahab A. & Bertuccelli, Pietro, 2017. "Causes and consequences of energy price shocks on petroleum-based stock market using the spillover asymmetric multiplicative error model," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(PA), pages 307-314.
    15. Otranto, Edoardo, 2008. "Clustering heteroskedastic time series by model-based procedures," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, pages 4685-4698.
    16. Emanuele Bacchiocchi & Marta Bevilacqua, 2009. "International crises, instability periods and contagion: the case of the ERM," International Review of Economics, Springer;Happiness Economics and Interpersonal Relations (HEIRS), vol. 56(2), pages 105-122, June.
    17. E. Otranto, 2012. "Spillover Effects in the Volatility of Financial Markets," Working Paper CRENoS 201217, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    18. Robert F. Engle & Giampiero M. Gallo & Margherita Velucchi, 2012. "Volatility Spillovers in East Asian Financial Markets: A Mem-Based Approach," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(1), pages 222-223, February.
    19. Gallo, Giampiero M. & Otranto, Edoardo, 2015. "Forecasting realized volatility with changing average levels," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 620-634.
    20. Marcel Aloy & Gilles De Truchis & Gilles Dufrénot & Benjamin Keddad, 2013. "Shift-Volatility Transmission in East Asian Equity Markets," Working Papers halshs-00935364, HAL.
    21. Khalifa, Ahmed A.A. & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Otranto, Edoardo, 2014. "Patterns of volatility transmissions within regime switching across GCC and global markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 29(C), pages 512-524.
    22. A. Khalifa & S. Hammoudeh & E. Otranto & S. Ramchander, 2012. "Volatility Transmission across Currency, Commodity and Equity Markets under Multi-Chain Regime Switching: Implications for Hedging and Portfolio Allocation," Working Paper CRENoS 201214, Centre for North South Economic Research, University of Cagliari and Sassari, Sardinia.
    23. Giampiero M. Gallo & Margherita Velucchi, 2009. "Market interdependence and financial volatility transmission in East Asia," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 14(1), pages 24-44.
    24. Khalifa, Ahmed A.A. & Otranto, Edoardo & Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Ramchander, Sanjay, 2016. "Volatility transmission across currencies and commodities with US uncertainty measures," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 63-83.

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