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Rational Panics, Absorbing Regime Switching and Stock Market

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  • Dengta CHEN
  • Yinggang ZHOU

Abstract

A government policy regarding the reduction of state shares in state-owned enterprises (SOE) triggered a crash in the Chinese stock market. The sus- tained depression even after policy adjustments constitutes a puzzle— the so called “state-share paradox.”The empirical evidence shows that the sustained depression is supported by a regime switching model with an absorbing state. The theoretical explanation developed in this paper arises from the concept of rational panics, which generates an inverted-S actual demand curve and gives rise to potential multiple equilibria. Rational panics hypothesis in this paper suggests that the dual pricing system and the quota on the overall stock supply represent major policy failures

Suggested Citation

  • Dengta CHEN & Yinggang ZHOU, 2004. "Rational Panics, Absorbing Regime Switching and Stock Market," Econometric Society 2004 Far Eastern Meetings 680, Econometric Society.
  • Handle: RePEc:ecm:feam04:680
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Gennotte, Gerard & Leland, Hayne, 1990. "Market Liquidity, Hedging, and Crashes," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 80(5), pages 999-1021, December.
    2. Chien-Hsun Chen & Hui-Tzu Shih, 2002. "The Evolution of the Stock Market in China’s Transitional Economy," Books, Edward Elgar Publishing, number 2792, December.
    3. Basu, Kaushik & Genicot, Garance & Stiglitz, Joseph E., 2000. "Unemployment and Wage Rigidity When Labor Supply Is a Household Decision," Working Papers 00-10, Cornell University, Center for Analytic Economics.
    4. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    5. Barlevy, Gadi & Veronesi, Pietro, 2003. "Rational panics and stock market crashes," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 110(2), pages 234-263, June.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Chinese Stock Market; Market Crash; and Inverted-S Demand;

    JEL classification:

    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • E65 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Studies of Particular Policy Episodes
    • O16 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Financial Markets; Saving and Capital Investment; Corporate Finance and Governance

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