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Public Debt and the Macroeconomic Stability of Japan

Author

Listed:
  • Keigo Kameda

    (Associate Professor, Faculty of Economics, Niigata University.)

  • Masao Nakata

    (Senior Economist, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance, Japan)

Abstract

Recently, the outstanding debt of the Japanese government amounts to 695 trillion yen, which implies 139.5% of GDP. In this paper, we constructed three IS-LM type dynamic models and estimate the eigenvalues of their differential systems. Then we confirm whether or not the huge amount of public debt violates the stability conditions for the Japanese economy. Our estimation concludes the Japanese economy to be unstable with the existence of a saddle-point equilibrium. Our simulation also shows that severe tax reform would be required to restore the economic stability. Concretely, the government has to raise the consumption tax rate to 15% from 5%, and in addition, allowing the income elasticities of income taxes and inhabitant taxes to increase by 0.033 each, which is equivalent to tax hikes of about 8.3 trillion yen. We assert that structural reform for the government budget including a tax system is essential and emergent.

Suggested Citation

  • Keigo Kameda & Masao Nakata, 2005. "Public Debt and the Macroeconomic Stability of Japan," Public Policy Review, Policy Research Institute, Ministry of Finance Japan, vol. 1(1), pages 49-90, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:mof:journl:ppr001d
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    File URL: http://warp.ndl.go.jp/info:ndljp/pid/9908001/www.mof.go.jp/english/pri/publication/pp_review/ppr001/ppr001d.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Turnovsky,Stephen J., 1977. "Macroeconomic Analysis and Stabilization Policy," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521291873, September.
    2. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    3. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
    4. Ihori, Toshihiro & Doi, Takero & Kondo, Hiroki, 2001. "Japanese fiscal reform: fiscal reconstruction and fiscal policy," Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 351-370, December.
    5. Toshihiro Ihori & Toru Nakazato & Masumi Kawade, 2003. "Japan's Fiscal Policies in the 1990s," The World Economy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(3), pages 325-338, March.
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • H63 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - Debt; Debt Management; Sovereign Debt
    • H25 - Public Economics - - Taxation, Subsidies, and Revenue - - - Business Taxes and Subsidies
    • H60 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt - - - General

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