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Is Abe's Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?

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  • Takero Doi

Abstract

The second arrow of Abenomics is flexible fiscal policy. However, it does not mean just fiscal stimulus as the Abe administration decided on the fiscal consolidation target of achieving a primary surplus by fiscal year 2020. Improving the primary balance implies making government debt more sustainable. Although the consumption tax rate was raised from 5% to 8% in April 2014, the Abe administration has decided twice to postpone increasing the consumption tax from 8% to 10%. In addition, a fiscal stimulus package was implemented. We use a Fiscal Stance Index to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of fiscal sustainability and a Markov switching model to examine fiscal policy from the viewpoint of the fiscal theory of the price level, and find that the Abe's fiscal stance is not Ricardian.

Suggested Citation

  • Takero Doi, 2018. "Is Abe's Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 46-63, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:asiapr:v:13:y:2018:i:1:p:46-63
    DOI: 10.1111/aepr.12199
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    2. Takatoshi Ito, 2021. "An Assessment of Abenomics: Evolution and Achievements," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 16(2), pages 190-219, July.
    3. Gautam Negi, 2021. "Fiscal Impulse And Sectoral Output €“ Evidence From Indian States," Review of Economic and Business Studies, Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, issue 28, pages 151-167, December.
    4. Motohiro Sato, 2018. "Comment on “Is Abe's Fiscal Policy Ricardian? What Does the Fiscal Theory of Prices Mean for Japan?â€," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 66-67, January.
    5. Tomomi Miyazaki & Haruo Kondoh, 2022. "Effects of Monetary and Fiscal Policy Interactions on Regional Employment: Evidence from Japan," Discussion Papers 2206, Graduate School of Economics, Kobe University.
    6. Takatoshi Ito & Kazumasa Iwata & Colin McKenzie & Shujiro Urata, 2018. "Did Abenomics Succeed?: Editors' Overview," Asian Economic Policy Review, Japan Center for Economic Research, vol. 13(1), pages 1-22, January.

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