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The effect of interest rates on home buying: Evidence from a shock to mortgage insurance premiums

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  • Bhutta, Neil
  • Ringo, Daniel

Abstract

Regression discontinuity estimates indicate that home buying is highly responsive to interest rates in a large segment of the population. A surprise 50 basis point cut in the effective interest rate for mortgages insured by the Federal Housing Administration (FHA) led to an immediate 14 percent increase in home buying among the FHA-reliant population. We show that this large, extensive-margin effect arises from the rate cut helping borrowers overcome maximum debt payment to income (DTI) thresholds. We conclude that binding DTI constraints are an important feature of the mortgage market that amplify the effect of interest rate shocks.

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  • Bhutta, Neil & Ringo, Daniel, 2021. "The effect of interest rates on home buying: Evidence from a shock to mortgage insurance premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 195-211.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:moneco:v:118:y:2021:i:c:p:195-211
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jmoneco.2020.10.001
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    Cited by:

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    2. Denis Gorea & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Marianna Kudlyak, 2022. "House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data," Working Paper Series 2022-16, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco.
    3. Claes Bäckman & Natalia Khorunzhina, 2024. "Interest‐Only Mortgages And Consumption Growth: Evidence From A Mortgage Market Reform," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 65(2), pages 1049-1079, May.
    4. Egan, Paul & McQuinn, Kieran, 2023. "Monetary tightening in the Euro Area: Implications for residential investment," Papers WP767, Economic and Social Research Institute (ESRI).
    5. Lang, Jan Hannes & Menno, Dominik, 2023. "The state-dependent impact of changes in bank capital requirements," Discussion Papers 19/2023, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    6. Bruno Albuquerque & Martin Iseringhausen & Frederic Opitz, 2024. "The Housing Supply Channel of Monetary Policy," IMF Working Papers 2024/023, International Monetary Fund.
    7. Anenberg, Elliot & Ringo, Daniel, 2024. "Volatility in Home Sales and Prices: Supply or Demand?," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 139(C).
    8. Daniel R. Ringo, 2023. "Monetary Policy and Home Buying Inequality," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2023-006, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Gorea, Denis & Kryvtsov, Oleksiy & Kudlyak, Marianna, 2023. "House Price Responses to Monetary Policy Surprises: Evidence from the U.S. Listings Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 18545, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Alexei Alexandrov & Thomas S. Conkling & Sergei Koulayev, 2024. "Changing the Scope of GSE Loan Guarantees: Estimating Effects on Mortgage Pricing and Availability," The Journal of Real Estate Finance and Economics, Springer, vol. 69(3), pages 409-451, October.
    11. Gill, Balbinder Singh, 2023. "Health uninsurance premium and mortgage interest rates," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 87(C).
    12. Kim, Jeong Ho (John) & Lee, Heebum & Lee, Sung Kwan, 2022. "Do credit supply shocks affect fertility choices?," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(C).
    13. Denis Gorea & Oleksiy Kryvtsov & Marianna Kudlyak, 2024. "House price responses to monetary policy surprises: evidence from US listings data," BIS Working Papers 1212, Bank for International Settlements.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Interest rates; Home buying; FHA; Mortgages; Mortgage insurance; Credit rationing; Regression discontinuity; Monetary policy; Stimulus;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • R21 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Housing Demand
    • R28 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - Household Analysis - - - Government Policy
    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • G18 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Government Policy and Regulation
    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages

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