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How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

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  • Fuster, Andreas
  • Hizmo, Aurel
  • Lambie-Hanson, Lauren
  • Vickery, James
  • Willen, Paul

Abstract

We study the resilience of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic---the most significant shock since the financial crisis---and draw out broader lessons about the functioning of this important market. While mortgage lending boomed in 2020-21, we find that a sharp increase in intermediation markups limited the pass-through of low rates to households. We link this increase in markups to capacity constraints amplified by pandemic-related operational and labor market frictions. We also present new evidence that capacity constraints in the mortgage market are national in scope and have not yet been significantly mitigated by recent technological change. Nonbank lenders, often thought to be fragile, gained market share from banks but remain reliant on securitization. We also find evidence that government credit guarantees support the flow of credit to risky borrowers but are not always sufficient, and that quantitative easing boosts supply particularly for the types of loans being purchased.

Suggested Citation

  • Fuster, Andreas & Hizmo, Aurel & Lambie-Hanson, Lauren & Vickery, James & Willen, Paul, 2021. "How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," CEPR Discussion Papers 16110, Centre for Economic Policy Research.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:16110
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    2. Larson, William D. & Makridis, Christos A. & Redmer, Chad A., 2025. "Borrower expectations and mortgage performance: Evidence from the COVID-19 pandemic," Journal of Financial Intermediation, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    3. Kristopher Gerardi & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul S. Willen, 2022. "Lessons Learned from Mortgage Borrower Policies and Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2022(9), July.
    4. Kristopher Gerardi & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul S. Willen, 2021. "Racial Differences in Mortgage Refinancing, Distress, and Housing Wealth Accumulation during COVID-19," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2021(6), pages 1-40, June.
    5. Andreas Fuster & Stephanie H. Lo & Paul S. Willen, 2024. "The Time‐Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2553-2602, August.
    6. Jakučionytė, Eglė & Singh, Swapnil, 2022. "Bowling alone, buying alone: The decline of co-borrowers in the US mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    7. Ferilli, Greta Benedetta & Altunbas, Yener & Stefanelli, Valeria & Palmieri, Egidio & Boscia, Vittorio, 2024. "Fintech governance and performance: Implications for banking and financial stability," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 70(PB).
    8. Abdul Rahman, Mohd Shahril & Awang, Mariah & Jagun, Zainab Toyin, 2024. "Polycrisis: Factors, impacts, and responses in the housing market," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 202(C).
    9. Tobias Berg & Andreas Fuster & Manju Puri, 2022. "FinTech Lending," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 187-207, November.
    10. Silva, Thiago Christiano & de Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato & Guerra, Solange Maria & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "COVID-19 and bank branch lending: The moderating effect of digitalization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    11. Diamond, William & Landvoigt, Tim & Sánchez, Germán Sánchez, 2025. "Printing away the mortgages: Fiscal inflation and the post-covid boom," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 171(C).
    12. Sean Chanwook Lee & Omeed Maghzian, 2023. "Household Liquidity and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Mortgage Forbearance," Working Papers 23-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    13. Julia Fonseca & Lu Liu, 2024. "Mortgage Lock‐In, Mobility, and Labor Reallocation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(6), pages 3729-3772, December.
    14. Jude, Cristina & Levieuge, Grégory, 2025. "Doubling down: The synergy of CCyB release and monetary policy easing," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 155(C).
    15. Xiaoqing Zhou, 2025. "Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks," Journal of Political Economy Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 3(1), pages 122-164.
    16. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    17. Karen Pence, 2022. "Liquidity in the mortgage market: How does the COVID‐19 crisis compare with the global financial crisis?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(6), pages 1405-1424, November.
    18. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    19. Lara Loewenstein, 2021. "Why Wasn’t there a Nonbank Mortgage Servicer Liquidity Crisis?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(15), pages 1-7, July.
    20. Augeraud-Véron, E. & Boungou, W. & Gupta, P., 2025. "Do better capitalized and bigger banks recover faster from a pandemic-led shock? Evidence from US Banks’ lending behavior," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

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