IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/fip/fedpwp/92115.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic

Author

Abstract

We study the evolution of US mortgage credit supply during the COVID-19 pandemic. Although the mortgage market experienced a historic boom in 2020, we show there was also a large and sustained increase in intermediation markups that limited the pass-through of low rates to borrowers. Markups typically rise during periods of peak demand, but this historical relationship explains only part of the large increase during the pandemic. We present evidence that pandemic-related labor market frictions and operational bottlenecks contributed to unusually inelastic credit supply, and that technology-based lenders, likely less constrained by these frictions, gained market share. Rising forbearance and default risk did not significantly affect rates on “plainvanilla” conforming mortgages, but it did lead to higher spreads on mortgages without government guarantees and loans to the riskiest borrowers. Mortgage backed securities purchases by the Federal Reserve also supported the flow of credit in the conforming segment.

Suggested Citation

  • Andreas Fuster & Aurel Hizmo & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & James Vickery & Paul S. Willen, 2021. "How Resilient Is Mortgage Credit Supply? Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," Working Papers 21-20, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:92115
    DOI: 10.21799/frbp.wp.2021.20
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/working-papers/2021/wp21-20.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.21799/frbp.wp.2021.20?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andreas Fuster & Stephanie H. Lo & Paul S. Willen, 2024. "The Time‐Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2553-2602, August.
    2. Davidson, Andrew & Levin, Alexander, 2014. "Mortgage Valuation Models: Embedded Options, Risk, and Uncertainty," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, number 9780199998166.
    3. Andreas Fuster & Matthew Plosser & Philipp Schnabl & James Vickery, 2019. "The Role of Technology in Mortgage Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1854-1899.
    4. repec:bin:bpeajo:v:49:y:2019:i:2018-01:p:347-428 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Asher Wolinsky, 1986. "True Monopolistic Competition as a Result of Imperfect Information," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 101(3), pages 493-511.
    6. Keys, Benjamin J. & Pope, Devin G. & Pope, Jaren C., 2016. "Failure to refinance," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 482-499.
    7. Susan Cherry & Erica Jiang & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2021. "Government and Private Household Debt Relief during COVID-19," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 52(2 (Fall)), pages 141-221.
    8. James Vickery & Joshua Wright, 2013. "TBA trading and liquidity in the agency MBS market," Economic Policy Review, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, vol. 19(May), pages 1-18.
    9. Paul Calem & Francisco Covas & Jason Wu, 2013. "The Impact of the 2007 Liquidity Shock on Bank Jumbo Mortgage Lending," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45, pages 59-91, August.
    10. Nina Boyarchenko & Andreas Fuster & David O Lucca, 2019. "Understanding Mortgage Spreads," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(10), pages 3799-3850.
    11. Erel, Isil & Liebersohn, Jack, 2020. "Does FinTech Substitute for Banks? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," Working Paper Series 2020-16, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    12. Steve Sharpe & Shane Sherlund, 2016. "Crowding Out Effects of Refinancing on New Purchase Mortgages," Review of Industrial Organization, Springer;The Industrial Organization Society, vol. 48(2), pages 209-239, March.
    13. Gene Amromin & Neil Bhutta & Benjamin J. Keys, 2020. "Refinancing, Monetary Policy, and the Credit Cycle," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 12(1), pages 67-93, December.
    14. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Christopher J Palmer, 2020. "How Quantitative Easing Works: Evidence on the Refinancing Channel," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(3), pages 1498-1528.
    15. Isil Erel & Jack Liebersohn, 2020. "Does FinTech Substitute for Banks? Evidence from the Paycheck Protection Program," NBER Working Papers 27659, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. John Y. Campbell & Nuno Clara & João F. Cocco, 2021. "Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2525-2576, October.
    17. You Suk Kim & Steven M. Laufer & Karen Pence & Richard Stanton & Nancy Wallace, 2018. "Liquidity Crises in the Mortgage Market," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 347-428.
    18. Buchak, Greg & Matvos, Gregor & Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2018. "Fintech, regulatory arbitrage, and the rise of shadow banks," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 130(3), pages 453-483.
    19. Surico, Paolo & Bracke, Philippe & Croxson, Karen & Fakhri, Daoud & Valletti, Tommaso, 2020. "Mortgage Market Disruptions," CEPR Discussion Papers 15381, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    20. Erica Jiang & Gregor Matvos & Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2020. "Which Banks are (Over) Levered? Insights from Shadow Banks and Uninsured Leverage," NBER Working Papers 26903, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    21. Marco Di Maggio & Amir Kermani & Benjamin J. Keys & Tomasz Piskorski & Rodney Ramcharan & Amit Seru & Vincent Yao, 2017. "Interest Rate Pass-Through: Mortgage Rates, Household Consumption, and Voluntary Deleveraging," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 107(11), pages 3550-3588, November.
    22. Andreas Fuster & Paul S. Willen, 2017. "Payment Size, Negative Equity, and Mortgage Default," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 9(4), pages 167-191, November.
    23. Anthony A Defusco & Stephanie Johnson & John Mondragon, 2020. "Regulating Household Leverage," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 87(2), pages 914-958.
    24. Janice Eberly & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2014. "Efficient Credit Policies in a Housing Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(2 (Fall)), pages 73-136.
    25. Fabozzi, Frank J. (ed.), 2016. "The Handbook of Mortgage-Backed Securities, 7th Edition," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 7, number 9780198785774.
    26. Janice Eberly & Arvind Krishnamurthy, 2014. "Efficient Credit Policies in a Housing Debt Crisis," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 45(2 (Fall)), pages 73-136.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Tobias Berg & Andreas Fuster & Manju Puri, 2022. "FinTech Lending," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 187-207, November.
    2. William D. Larson & Christos Makridis & Chad Redmer, 2021. "Borrower Expectations and Mortgage Performance: Evidence from the COVID-19 Pandemic," FHFA Staff Working Papers 21-02, Federal Housing Finance Agency.
    3. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    4. Kristopher Gerardi & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul S. Willen, 2022. "Lessons Learned from Mortgage Borrower Policies and Outcomes during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Policy Hub, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta, vol. 2022(9), July.
    5. repec:fip:a00001:92867 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Kristopher Gerardi & Lauren Lambie-Hanson & Paul S. Willen, 2021. "Racial Differences in Mortgage Refinancing, Distress, and Housing Wealth Accumulation during COVID-19," Consumer Finance Institute discussion papers 21-02, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    7. Jakučionytė, Eglė & Singh, Swapnil, 2022. "Bowling alone, buying alone: The decline of co-borrowers in the US mortgage market," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).
    8. Silva, Thiago Christiano & de Souza, Sergio Rubens Stancato & Guerra, Solange Maria & Tabak, Benjamin Miranda, 2023. "COVID-19 and bank branch lending: The moderating effect of digitalization," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    9. Sean Chanwook Lee & Omeed Maghzian, 2023. "Household Liquidity and Macroeconomic Stabilization: Evidence from Mortgage Forbearance," Working Papers 23-12, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
    10. Cristina Jude & Grégory Levieuge, 2024. "Doubling Down: The Synergy of CCyB Release and Monetary Policy Easing," Working papers 961, Banque de France.
    11. Xiaoqing Zhou, 2022. "Financial Technology and the Transmission of Monetary Policy: The Role of Social Networks," Working Papers 2203, Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas, revised 14 Feb 2023.
    12. Karen Pence, 2022. "Liquidity in the mortgage market: How does the COVID‐19 crisis compare with the global financial crisis?," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 50(6), pages 1405-1424, November.
    13. Horvath, Akos & Kay, Benjamin & Wix, Carlo, 2023. "The COVID-19 shock and consumer credit: Evidence from credit card data," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 152(C).
    14. Lara Loewenstein, 2021. "Why Wasn’t there a Nonbank Mortgage Servicer Liquidity Crisis?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 2021(15), pages 1-7, July.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andreas Fuster & David Lucca & James Vickery, 2023. "Mortgage-backed securities," Chapters, in: Refet S. Gürkaynak & Jonathan H. Wright (ed.), Research Handbook of Financial Markets, chapter 15, pages 331-357, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    2. Piskorski, Tomasz & Seru, Amit, 2021. "Debt relief and slow recovery: A decade after Lehman," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 141(3), pages 1036-1059.
    3. Matteo Benetton & Philippe Bracke & João F Cocco & Nicola Garbarinoifo, 2022. "Housing Consumption and Investment: Evidence from Shared Equity Mortgages," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 35(8), pages 3525-3573.
    4. Francisco Gomes & Michael Haliassos & Tarun Ramadorai, 2021. "Household Finance," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 59(3), pages 919-1000, September.
    5. W. Scott Frame & Andreas Fuster & Joseph Tracy & James Vickery, 2015. "The Rescue of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(2), pages 25-52, Spring.
    6. Joshua Abel & Andreas Fuster, 2021. "How Do Mortgage Refinances Affect Debt, Default, and Spending? Evidence from HARP," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 13(2), pages 254-291, April.
    7. You Suk Kim & Donghoon Lee & Tess C. Scharlemann & James Vickery, 2022. "Intermediation Frictions in Debt Relief: Evidence from CARES Act Forbearance," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2022-017, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    8. Andreas Fuster & Matthew Plosser & James Vickery, 2018. "Does CFPB Oversight Crimp Credit?," Staff Reports 857, Federal Reserve Bank of New York.
    9. Andreas Fuster & Matthew Plosser & Philipp Schnabl & James Vickery, 2019. "The Role of Technology in Mortgage Lending," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 32(5), pages 1854-1899.
    10. Marco Di Maggio & Ankit Kalda & Vincent Yao, 2019. "Second Chance: Life without Student Debt," NBER Working Papers 25810, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Andreas Fuster & Stephanie H. Lo & Paul S. Willen, 2024. "The Time‐Varying Price of Financial Intermediation in the Mortgage Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 79(4), pages 2553-2602, August.
    12. Paul Beaumont & Huan Tang & Éric Vansteenberghe, 2024. "Collateral Effects: The Role of FinTech in Small Business Lending [Effets collatéraux : le rôle des Fintechs dans le financement des petites et moyennes entreprises]," Débats économiques et financiers 42, Banque de France.
    13. Bartlett, Robert & Morse, Adair & Stanton, Richard & Wallace, Nancy, 2022. "Consumer-lending discrimination in the FinTech Era," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 143(1), pages 30-56.
    14. Tan, Changchun & Mo, Lingyu & Wu, Xiaomeng & Zhou, Peng, 2024. "Fintech development and corporate credit risk: Evidence from an emerging market," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    15. Sumit Agarwal & Slava Mikhed & Barry Scholnick & Man Zhang, 2022. "Reducing Strategic Default in a Financial Crisis," Working Papers 21-36, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia.
    16. Tobias Berg & Andreas Fuster & Manju Puri, 2022. "FinTech Lending," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 14(1), pages 187-207, November.
    17. Adam M. Guren & Arvind Krishnamurthy & Timothy J. Mcquade, 2021. "Mortgage Design in an Equilibrium Model of the Housing Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(1), pages 113-168, February.
    18. Tomasz Piskorski & Amit Seru, 2018. "Mortgage Market Design: Lessons from the Great Recession," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 49(1 (Spring), pages 429-513.
    19. John Y. Campbell & Nuno Clara & João F. Cocco, 2021. "Structuring Mortgages for Macroeconomic Stability," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 76(5), pages 2525-2576, October.
    20. Bhutta, Neil & Ringo, Daniel, 2021. "The effect of interest rates on home buying: Evidence from a shock to mortgage insurance premiums," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 118(C), pages 195-211.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    mortgage; credit; financial intermediation; fintech; COVID-19;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G21 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Banks; Other Depository Institutions; Micro Finance Institutions; Mortgages
    • G23 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Non-bank Financial Institutions; Financial Instruments; Institutional Investors
    • G28 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Government Policy and Regulation

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedpwp:92115. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Beth Paul (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbphus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.