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Volatility spillover between economic sectors in financial crisis prediction: Evidence spanning the great financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic

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  • Laborda, Ricardo
  • Olmo, Jose

Abstract

This paper measures volatility spillovers between sectors of economic activity using network connectivity measures. Volatility spillovers are an accurate proxy for the transmission of risk across sectors and are particularly informative during crisis periods. To do this, we apply the novel methodology proposed in Diebold and Yilmaz (2012) to seven economic sectors of U.S. economic activity and find that Banking&Insurance, Energy, Technology and Biotechnology are the main channels through which shocks propagate to the rest of the economy. Banking&Insurance is especially relevant during the 2007–2009 global financial crisis while the Energy sector and Technology are especially relevant during the COVID-19 crisis. We also show that volatility spillovers exhibit ability to predict high episodes of volatility for the S&P 500 index being useful as early financial crisis indicators.

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  • Laborda, Ricardo & Olmo, Jose, 2021. "Volatility spillover between economic sectors in financial crisis prediction: Evidence spanning the great financial crisis and Covid-19 pandemic," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 57(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:riibaf:v:57:y:2021:i:c:s0275531921000234
    DOI: 10.1016/j.ribaf.2021.101402
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    7. Md. Bokhtiar Hasan & Masnun Mahi & Tapan Sarker & Md. Ruhul Amin, 2021. "Spillovers of the COVID-19 Pandemic: Impact on Global Economic Activity, the Stock Market, and the Energy Sector," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(5), pages 1-18, May.
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    12. Sharma, Gagan Deep & Shahbaz, Muhammad & Singh, Sanjeet & Chopra, Ritika & Cifuentes-Faura, Javier, 2023. "Investigating the nexus between green economy, sustainability, bitcoin and oil prices: Contextual evidence from the United States," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 80(C).
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    15. Hernandez, Jose Arreola & Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Sadorsky, Perry & Uddin, Gazi Salah & Bouri, Elie & Kang, Sang Hoon, 2022. "Regime specific spillovers across US sectors and the role of oil price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C).
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    18. Gofran, Ruhana Zareen & Gregoriou, Andros & Haar, Lawrence, 2022. "Impact of Coronavirus on liquidity in financial markets," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
    19. Umar, Zaghum & Polat, Onur & Choi, Sun-Yong & Teplova, Tamara, 2022. "Dynamic connectedness between non-fungible tokens, decentralized finance, and conventional financial assets in a time-frequency framework," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 76(C).
    20. Al-Nassar, Nassar S. & Yousaf, Imran & Makram, Beljid, 2023. "Spillovers between positively and negatively affected service sectors from the COVID-19 health crisis: Implications for portfolio management," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
    21. Bouteska, Ahmed & Hajek, Petr & Fisher, Ben & Abedin, Mohammad Zoynul, 2023. "Nonlinearity in forecasting energy commodity prices: Evidence from a focused time-delayed neural network," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C).
    22. Zhang, Yi & Zhou, Long & Chen, Yajiao & Liu, Fang, 2022. "The contagion effect of jump risk across Asian stock markets during the Covid-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C).

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Covid-19; Financial crises; Sectoral connectedness; Volatility spillovers; S&P 500 volatility; Random forest;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G17 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Financial Forecasting and Simulation

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