IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bgo/journl/v7y2023i1p121-135.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

The Relationship Between the Stock Market Volatility, Liquidity, Exchange Rate Return, and Stock Return During the COVID-19 Period: The case of the BIST 100 Index

Author

Listed:
  • Emre BULUT

    (Fırat University)

  • Ahmed İhsan ŞİMŞEK

    (Fırat University)

Abstract

The COVID-19 Pandemic, emerged in China at the end of 2019, negatively affected many sectors on global scale. This study examined the period between March 11, 2020, when the first case was seen in Turkey, and May 23, 2022, when the pandemic measures were largely lifted. The study aims to research the relationship between stock exchange return, stock exchange volatility, liquidity, and exchange rate return; and to research the movement characteristics of selected variables in different regimes by using Markov Switching Method during the COVID-19 period. The results showed a negative correlation between the BIST-100 Index Return of Borsa Istanbul (BIST) and volatility and exchange rate returns. Simultaneously there is a positive correlation between the BIST-100 Index Return and liquidity. Furthermore, it has been determined that the data movements in the examined period occurred within the framework of two different regimes. It has been observed that the probability of the BIST-100 Index Return, volatility, and exchange rate returns to remain in the same regime is high, and the probability of switching from one regime to another is relatively low.

Suggested Citation

  • Emre BULUT & Ahmed İhsan ŞİMŞEK, 2023. "The Relationship Between the Stock Market Volatility, Liquidity, Exchange Rate Return, and Stock Return During the COVID-19 Period: The case of the BIST 100 Index," Bingol University Journal of Economics and Administrative Sciences, Bingol University, Faculty of Economics and Administrative Sciences, vol. 7(1), pages 121-135, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:bgo:journl:v:7:y:2023:i:1:p:121-135
    DOI: https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1222386
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://repec.bingol.edu.tr/bgo/The-Relationship-Between-the-Stock-Market-Volatility-Liquidity-Exchange-Rate-Return-and-Stock-Return-During-the-COVID-19-Period-The-case-of-the-BIST-100-Index.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/https://doi.org/10.33399/biibfad.1222386?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Baek, Seungho & Mohanty, Sunil K. & Glambosky, Mina, 2020. "COVID-19 and stock market volatility: An industry level analysis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 37(C).
    2. Chang, Yuk Ying & Faff, Robert & Hwang, Chuan-Yang, 2010. "Liquidity and stock returns in Japan: New evidence," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 90-115, January.
    3. Narayan, Paresh Kumar, 2022. "Understanding exchange rate shocks during COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(C).
    4. Song, Ying & Bouri, Elie & Ghosh, Sajal & Kanjilal, Kakali, 2021. "Rare earth and financial markets: Dynamics of return and volatility connectedness around the COVID-19 outbreak," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    5. Uddin, Moshfique & Chowdhury, Anup & Anderson, Keith & Chaudhuri, Kausik, 2021. "The effect of COVID – 19 pandemic on global stock market volatility: Can economic strength help to manage the uncertainty?," Journal of Business Research, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 31-44.
    6. Li, Qi & Yang, Jian & Hsiao, Cheng & Chang, Young-Jae, 2005. "The relationship between stock returns and volatility in international stock markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 12(5), pages 650-665, December.
    7. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Zheng, Xinwei, 2011. "The relationship between liquidity and returns on the Chinese stock market," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(3), pages 259-266, June.
    8. repec:eme:sef000:sef-09-2020-0389 is not listed on IDEAS
    9. Shahzad, Syed Jawad Hussain & Naeem, Muhammad Abubakr & Peng, Zhe & Bouri, Elie, 2021. "Asymmetric volatility spillover among Chinese sectors during COVID-19," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    10. Pyo, Dong-Jin, 2021. "The COVID-19 and Stock Return Volatility: Evidence from South Korea," East Asian Economic Review, Korea Institute for International Economic Policy, vol. 25(2), pages 205-230, June.
    11. Goldfeld, Stephen M. & Quandt, Richard E., 1973. "A Markov model for switching regressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 3-15, March.
    12. Bijoy Rakshit & Yadawananda Neog, 2021. "Effects of the COVID-19 pandemic on stock market returns and volatilities: evidence from selected emerging economies," Studies in Economics and Finance, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 39(4), pages 549-571, July.
    13. Letife Özdemir & Ercan OZEN & Simon Grima & Inna RomÄ nova, 2021. "Determining the Return Volatility of Major Stock Markets Before and During the COVID-19 Pandemic by Applying the EGARCH Model," Scientific Annals of Economics and Business (continues Analele Stiintifice), Alexandru Ioan Cuza University, Faculty of Economics and Business Administration, vol. 68(4), pages 405-419, October.
    14. Martin S Eichenbaum & Sergio Rebelo & Mathias Trabandt, 2021. "The Macroeconomics of Epidemics [Economic activity and the spread of viral diseases: Evidence from high frequency data]," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 34(11), pages 5149-5187.
    15. Bakry, Walid & Kavalmthara, Peter John & Saverimuttu, Vivienne & Liu, Yiyang & Cyril, Sajan, 2022. "Response of stock market volatility to COVID-19 announcements and stringency measures: A comparison of developed and emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    16. Assefa, Tibebe A. & Mollick, André Varella, 2014. "African stock market returns and liquidity premia," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 325-342.
    17. Wang, Hua & Xu, Liao & Sharma, Susan Sunila, 2021. "Does investor attention increase stock market volatility during the COVID-19 pandemic?," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 69(C).
    18. Omair Haroon & Mohsin Ali & Abdullah Khan & Mudeer A. Khattak & Syed Aun R. Rizvi, 2021. "Financial Market Risks during the COVID-19 Pandemic," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 57(8), pages 2407-2414, June.
    19. Jin, Xiaoye, 2017. "Time-varying return-volatility relation in international stock markets," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 157-173.
    20. Hui Hong & Zhicun Bian & Chien-Chiang Lee, 2021. "COVID-19 and instability of stock market performance: evidence from the U.S," Financial Innovation, Springer;Southwestern University of Finance and Economics, vol. 7(1), pages 1-18, December.
    21. Kusumahadi, Teresia Angelia & Permana, Fikri C, 2021. "Impact of COVID-19 on Global Stock Market Volatility," Journal of Economic Integration, Center for Economic Integration, Sejong University, vol. 36(1), pages 20-45.
    22. Shaista Wasiuzzaman, 2022. "Impact of COVID-19 on the Saudi stock market: analysis of return, volatility and trading volume," Journal of Asset Management, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 23(4), pages 350-363, July.
    23. Park, Jin Suk & Newaz, Mohammad Khaleq, 2021. "Liquidity and short-run predictability: Evidence from international stock markets," Global Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).
    24. Jonathan A. Batten & Xuan Vinh Vo, 2014. "Liquidity and Return Relationships in an Emerging Market," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 50(1), pages 5-21, January.
    25. Karan Rai & Bhavesh Garg, 2022. "Dynamic correlations and volatility spillovers between stock price and exchange rate in BRIICS economies: evidence from the COVID-19 outbreak period," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 29(8), pages 738-745, May.
    26. Tan, Zhengxun & Xiao, Binuo & Huang, Yilong & Zhou, Li, 2021. "Value at risk and return in Chinese and the US stock markets: Double long memory and fractional cointegration," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C).
    27. Dimitriou, Dimitrios & Simos, Theodore, 2011. "The relationship between stock returns and volatility in the seventeen largest international stock markets: A semi-parametric approach," MPRA Paper 37528, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    28. Mert Topcu & Ibrahim Yagli & Furkan Emirmahmutoglu, 2021. "COVID-19 and stock market volatility: A time-varying perspective," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 41(3), pages 1681-1689.
    29. Corbet, Shaen & Hou, Yang (Greg) & Hu, Yang & Oxley, Les, 2021. "Volatility spillovers during market supply shocks: The case of negative oil prices," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    30. Martinez, Miguel A. & Nieto, Belen & Rubio, Gonzalo & Tapia, Mikel, 2005. "Asset pricing and systematic liquidity risk: An empirical investigation of the Spanish stock market," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 81-103.
    31. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    32. Bingyu Zhao & Wanping Yang & Jun Wen & Wei Zhang, 2022. "The Financial Market in China under the COVID-19," Emerging Markets Finance and Trade, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(13), pages 3726-3738, October.
    33. Albulescu, Claudiu Tiberiu, 2021. "COVID-19 and the United States financial markets’ volatility," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    34. Izzeldin, Marwan & Muradoğlu, Yaz Gülnur & Pappas, Vasileios & Sivaprasad, Sheeja, 2021. "The impact of Covid-19 on G7 stock markets volatility: Evidence from a ST-HAR model," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    35. Feng, Gen-Fu & Yang, Hao-Chang & Gong, Qiang & Chang, Chun-Ping, 2021. "What is the exchange rate volatility response to COVID-19 and government interventions?," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 705-719.
    36. Bissoondoyal-Bheenick, Emawtee & Do, Hung & Hu, Xiaolu & Zhong, Angel, 2021. "Learning from SARS: Return and volatility connectedness in COVID-19," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 41(C).
    37. Scott R. Baker & Nicholas Bloom & Steven J. Davis & Kyle J. Kost & Marco C. Sammon & Tasaneeya Viratyosin, 2020. "The Unprecedented Stock Market Impact of COVID-19," NBER Working Papers 26945, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    38. Engelhardt, Nils & Krause, Miguel & Neukirchen, Daniel & Posch, Peter N., 2021. "Trust and stock market volatility during the COVID-19 crisis," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 38(C).
    39. Mutaju Isaack Marobhe & Jonathan Mukiza Peter Kansheba, 2022. "Stock market reactions to COVID-19 shocks: do financial market interventions walk the talk?," China Finance Review International, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 12(4), pages 623-645, May.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Pham, Son Duy & Nguyen, Thao Thac Thanh & Do, Hung Xuan & Vo, Xuan Vinh, 2023. "Portfolio diversification during the COVID-19 pandemic: Do vaccinations matter?," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
    2. Annika Fischer & Noel Opala & Svend Reuse & Martin Svoboda, 2022. "The Impact of the Corona Crisis on the Worldwide Stock Markets: An Empirical Analysis with Cross National Event Study Approach," International Journal of Economics and Financial Issues, Econjournals, vol. 12(6), pages 162-172, November.
    3. Semei Coronado & Jose N. Martinez & Victor Gualajara & Rafael Romero-Meza & Omar Rojas, 2023. "Time-Varying Granger Causality of COVID-19 News on Emerging Financial Markets: The Latin American Case," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(2), pages 1-18, January.
    4. Chaiyuth Padungsaksawasdi & Sirimon Treepongkaruna, 2023. "Investor Attention and Global Stock Market Volatility: Evidence from COVID-19," Journal of Emerging Market Finance, Institute for Financial Management and Research, vol. 22(1), pages 85-104, March.
    5. Bakry, Walid & Kavalmthara, Peter John & Saverimuttu, Vivienne & Liu, Yiyang & Cyril, Sajan, 2022. "Response of stock market volatility to COVID-19 announcements and stringency measures: A comparison of developed and emerging markets," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 46(PA).
    6. Maneejuk, Paravee & Kaewtathip, Nuttaphong & Jaipong, Peemmawat & Yamaka, Woraphon, 2022. "The transition of the global financial markets' connectedness during the COVID-19 pandemic," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 63(C).
    7. Kim, Eung-Bin & Byun, Suk-Joon, 2021. "Risk, ambiguity, and equity premium: International evidence," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 76(C), pages 321-335.
    8. Herjuna Qobush Izzahdi & Ani Wilujeng Suryani, 2023. "COVID-19 Vaccination, Government Strict Policy and Capital Market Volatility: Evidence from ASEAN Countries," Economic Studies journal, Bulgarian Academy of Sciences - Economic Research Institute, issue 2, pages 117-135.
    9. Wang, Zhixuan & Dong, Yanli & Liu, Ailan, 2022. "How does China's stock market react to supply chain disruptions from COVID-19?," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 82(C).
    10. Aharon, David Y. & Siev, Smadar, 2021. "COVID-19, government interventions and emerging capital markets performance," Research in International Business and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 58(C).
    11. S. Shameem BANU & N.S. SHIBU, 2022. "Volatility and asymmetric analysis of Indian indices during Covid-19 pandemic period," Theoretical and Applied Economics, Asociatia Generala a Economistilor din Romania - AGER, vol. 0(1(630), S), pages 215-222, Spring.
    12. Tomás Gómez Rodríguez & Humberto Ríos Bolívar & Adriana Zambrano Reyes, 2021. "Volatilidad y COVID-19: evidencia empírica internacional," Remef - Revista Mexicana de Economía y Finanzas Nueva Época REMEF (The Mexican Journal of Economics and Finance), Instituto Mexicano de Ejecutivos de Finanzas, IMEF, vol. 16(3), pages 1-20, Julio - S.
    13. Hadhri, Sinda & Ftiti, Zied, 2019. "Commonality in liquidity among Middle East and North Africa emerging stock markets: Does it really matter?," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 43(3).
    14. Ayhan Kuloğlu, 2021. "Covıd-19 Krizinin Petrol Fiyatları Üzerine Etkisi," Journal of Research in Economics, Politics & Finance, Ersan ERSOY, vol. 6(3), pages 710-727.
    15. Piñeiro-Chousa, Juan & López-Cabarcos, M. Ángeles & Quiñoá-Piñeiro, Lara & Pérez-Pico, Ada M., 2022. "US biopharmaceutical companies' stock market reaction to the COVID-19 pandemic. Understanding the concept of the ‘paradoxical spiral’ from a sustainability perspective," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 175(C).
    16. Hasan, Md. Tanvir, 2022. "The sum of all SCARES COVID-19 sentiment and asset return," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 86(C), pages 332-346.
    17. Ashraf, Badar Nadeem & Goodell, John W., 2022. "COVID-19 social distancing measures and economic growth: Distinguishing short- and long-term effects," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 47(PA).
    18. Harjoto, Maretno Agus & Rossi, Fabrizio & Lee, Robert & Sergi, Bruno S., 2021. "How do equity markets react to COVID-19? Evidence from emerging and developed countries," Journal of Economics and Business, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
    19. Nguyen, Nhut H. & Lo, Ka Hei, 2013. "Asset returns and liquidity effects: Evidence from a developed but small market," Pacific-Basin Finance Journal, Elsevier, vol. 21(1), pages 1175-1190.
    20. Zhang, Xu & Ding, Zhijing & Hang, Jianqin & He, Qizhi, 2022. "How do stock price indices absorb the COVID-19 pandemic shocks?," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 60(C).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Volatility; exchange rate; BIST; stock return; emerging markets;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • C58 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric Modeling - - - Financial Econometrics
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bgo:journl:v:7:y:2023:i:1:p:121-135. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Halim Tatli (email available below). General contact details of provider: .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.