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Estimating Nonlinear DSGE Models by the Simulated Method of Moments

  • RUGE-MURCIA, Francisco J.

This paper studies the application of the simulated method of moments (SMM) for the estimation of nonlinear dynamic stochastic general equilibrium (DSGE) models. Monte Carlo analysis is employed to examine the small-sample properties of SMM in specifications with different curvature. Results show that SMM is computationally efficient and delivers accurate estimates, even when the simulated series are relatively short. However, asymptotic standard errors tend to overstate the actual variability of the estimates and, consequently, statistical inference is conservative. A simple strategy to incorporate priors in a method of moments context is proposed. An empirical application to the macroeconomic effects of rare events indicates that negatively skewed productivity shocks induce agents to accumulate additional capital and can endogenously generate asymmetric business cycles.

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Paper provided by Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ in its series Cahiers de recherche with number 19-2010.

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Length: 62 pages
Date of creation: 2010
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:mtl:montec:19-2010
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