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Stock market contagion in Central and Eastern Europe: unexpected volatility and extreme co-exceedance

Author

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  • Roman Horváth
  • Štefan Lyócsa
  • Eduard Baumöhl

Abstract

We examine whether there is contagion from the US stock market to six Central and Eastern European stock markets. We use a novel measure of contagion that examines whether volatility shocks in the US stock market coupled with negative returns are followed by higher co-exceedance between US and emerging stock markets. Using our approach and controlling for a set of market-related variables, we show that during the period from 1998 to 2014, financial contagion occurred, that is, unexpected negative events in the US market are followed by higher co-exceedance between US and Central and Eastern European stock markets. Even though contagion is stronger during the financial crisis, it also occurs in tranquil times.

Suggested Citation

  • Roman Horváth & Štefan Lyócsa & Eduard Baumöhl, 2018. "Stock market contagion in Central and Eastern Europe: unexpected volatility and extreme co-exceedance," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 24(5), pages 391-412, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:taf:eurjfi:v:24:y:2018:i:5:p:391-412
    DOI: 10.1080/1351847X.2017.1307773
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    Cited by:

    1. Iordache Andreea & Tătaru Răzvan Ioan & Tătaru George-Cristian, 2025. "Revisiting the Dynamics of CEE Capital Markets," Proceedings of the International Conference on Business Excellence, Sciendo, vol. 19(1), pages 1856-1874.
    2. Roman Horvath, 2018. "Financial market fragmentation and monetary transmission in the euro area: what do we know?," Journal of Economic Policy Reform, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 21(4), pages 319-334, October.
    3. Adriana AnaMaria Davidescu & Eduard Mihai Manta & Razvan Gabriel Hapau & Mihaela Gruiescu & Oana Mihaela Vacaru (Boita), 2023. "Exploring the Contagion Effect from Developed to Emerging CEE Financial Markets," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(3), pages 1-50, January.
    4. Hsiao, Cody Yu-Ling & Chiu, Yi-Bin, 2024. "Financial contagion and networks among the oil and BRICS stock markets during seven episodes of crisis events," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
    5. Peter Arendas & Jana Kotlebova, 2019. "The Turn of the Month Effect on CEE Stock Markets," IJFS, MDPI, vol. 7(4), pages 1-19, October.
    6. Lyócsa, Štefan & Plíhal, Tomáš & Výrost, Tomáš, 2024. "Forecasting day-ahead expected shortfall on the EUR/USD exchange rate: The (I)relevance of implied volatility," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 40(4), pages 1275-1301.
    7. Pavel Gertler & Roman Horváth & Júlia Jonášová, 2020. "Central Bank Communication and Financial Market Comovements in the Euro Area," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 31(2), pages 257-272, April.
    8. Lu, Xunfa & He, Pengchao & Zhang, Zhengjun & Apergis, Nicholas & Roubaud, David, 2024. "Extreme co-movements between decomposed oil price shocks and sustainable investments," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 134(C).
    9. Jasmina Ðuraškovic & Slavica Manic & Dejan Živkov, 2019. "Multiscale Volatility Transmission and Portfolio Construction Between the Baltic Stock Markets," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 69(2), pages 211-235, April.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G01 - Financial Economics - - General - - - Financial Crises
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • G15 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - International Financial Markets

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