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Oil prices and interstate conflict

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  • Cullen S. Hendrix

    (Korbel School, University of Denver and Peterson Institute for International Economics, USA)

Abstract

Anecdotal evidence suggests that high oil prices embolden oil-rich states to behave more aggressively. This article contends that arguments linking oil-exporter status to interstate conflict are implicitly price contingent, and tests this via a reanalysis of works by Colgan and Weeks. It finds a contingent effect of oil prices on interstate disputes, with high oil prices associated with significant increases in dispute behavior in petrostates, for which oil exports constitute more than 10% of GDP, while having a null effect in non-petrostates. Directed-dyadic tests indicate that this is due to petrostates initiating disputes, rather than becoming more attractive targets for conquest or coercion.

Suggested Citation

  • Cullen S. Hendrix, 2017. "Oil prices and interstate conflict," Conflict Management and Peace Science, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 34(6), pages 575-596, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:compsc:v:34:y:2017:i:6:p:575-596
    DOI: 10.1177/0738894215606067
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    References listed on IDEAS

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