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Peaceful development: Natural resources, global agendas and conflict in Africa

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  • Bitoto, Fabrice Ewolo
  • Nguepi, Nelson Derrick
  • Mbognou, Cerapis Nchinda
  • Petnga, Ruth Dzokou

Abstract

Natural wealth, such as precious minerals, has often been blamed for driving armed conflict. The aim of this study is twofold. Firstly, the study aims to reexamine the impact of natural resource dependence on the likelihood of conflict in Africa. Secondly, to examine the moderating role of development programs in the relationship between natural resources and conflict in Africa. The analysis carried out on data from 40 African countries over the period 1996–2022 yielded several main results. Firstly, natural resource rents significantly increase the probability of conflict in Africa. Secondly, the interaction between natural resource rents and development programs, namely the Millennium Development Goals (MDGs), the Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs), and Agenda 2063, reveals contrasting effects. While the SDGs and Agenda 2063 significantly reduce the likelihood of conflict, this is not the case for the MDGs. Indeed, the MDGs focused more on poverty reduction and did not include all dimensions, whereas recent development programs are more inclusive and integrate the dimensions of governance, peace and security, partnerships, and conflict prevention. The SDGs place greater emphasis on environmental sustainability and the management of natural resources, which could help ease tensions around rents. These results are robust to various consistency checks. We suggest that governments continue efforts to promote greater ownership of recent development programs in Africa.

Suggested Citation

  • Bitoto, Fabrice Ewolo & Nguepi, Nelson Derrick & Mbognou, Cerapis Nchinda & Petnga, Ruth Dzokou, 2026. "Peaceful development: Natural resources, global agendas and conflict in Africa," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 112(C).
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jrpoli:v:112:y:2026:i:c:s0301420725003381
    DOI: 10.1016/j.resourpol.2025.105796
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    JEL classification:

    • O13 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Agriculture; Natural Resources; Environment; Other Primary Products
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H53 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - Government Expenditures and Welfare Programs

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