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Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa

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  • Hsiang, Solomon M
  • Meng, Kyle C

Abstract

A recent study by Burke et al. [Burke M, Miguel E, Satyanath S, Dykema J, Lobell D (2009) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 106(49):20670-20674] reports statistical evidence that the likelihood of civil wars in African countries was elevated in hotter years. A following study by Buhaug [Buhaug H (2010) Proc Natl Acad Sci USA 107(38):16477-16482] reports that a reexamination of the evidence overturns Burke et al.'s findings when alternative statistical models and alternative measures of conflict are used. We show that the conclusion by Buhaug is based on absent or incorrect statistical tests, both in model selection and in the comparison of results with Burke et al. When we implement the correct tests, we find there is no evidence presented in Buhaug that rejects the original results of Burke et al.

Suggested Citation

  • Hsiang, Solomon M & Meng, Kyle C, 2014. "Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa," University of California at Santa Barbara, Recent Works in Economics qt8g60j076, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    • Handle: RePEc:cdl:ucsbrw:qt8g60j076
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Ore Koren & Benjamin E. Bagozzi, 2016. "From global to local, food insecurity is associated with contemporary armed conflicts," Food Security: The Science, Sociology and Economics of Food Production and Access to Food, Springer;The International Society for Plant Pathology, vol. 8(5), pages 999-1010, October.
    2. Masoud Bijani & Dariush Hayati & Hossein Azadi & Vjekoslav Tanaskovik & Frank Witlox, 2020. "Causes and Consequences of the Conflict among Agricultural Water Beneficiaries in Iran," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 12(16), pages 1-22, August.
    3. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    4. repec:fpr:2020cp:3(3 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Richard A. Marcantonio & Shahzeen Z. Attari & Tom P. Evans, 2018. "Farmer Perceptions of Conflict Related to Water in Zambia," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 10(2), pages 1-18, January.
    6. Busby, Joshua & Smith, Todd G. & Krishnan, Nisha & Wight, Charles & Vallejo-Gutierrez, Santiago, 2018. "In harm's way: Climate security vulnerability in Asia," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 112(C), pages 88-118.
    7. Sébastien Mary, 2022. "A replication note on humanitarian aid and violence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1465-1494, March.
    8. Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    9. H. Buhaug & J. Nordkvelle & T. Bernauer & T. Böhmelt & M. Brzoska & J. Busby & A. Ciccone & H. Fjelde & E. Gartzke & N. Gleditsch & J. Goldstone & H. Hegre & H. Holtermann & V. Koubi & J. Link & P. Li, 2014. "One effect to rule them all? A comment on climate and conflict," Climatic Change, Springer, vol. 127(3), pages 391-397, December.
    10. Maiden, Emily & Brockway, Mark, 2018. "Parlez-vous français? Language and agricultural aid allocation strategies in northern Mali," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 356-375.
    11. Mary, Sebastien, 2022. "Dams mitigate the effect of rainfall shocks on Hindus-Muslims riots," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
    12. Solomon M. Hsiang & Amir S. Jina, 2014. "The Causal Effect of Environmental Catastrophe on Long-Run Economic Growth: Evidence From 6,700 Cyclones," NBER Working Papers 20352, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & John O’Loughlin & J. Terrence McCabe & Jaroslav Tir, 2018. "Drought, Local Institutional Contexts, and Support for Violence in Kenya," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(7), pages 1544-1578, August.
    14. Burke, Marshall & Hsiang, Solomon M & Miguel, Edward, 2015. "Global non-linear effect of temperature on economic production," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt3g72r0zv, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
    15. Mary, Sébastien & Mishra, Ashok K., 2020. "Humanitarian food aid and civil conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).

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