IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/eee/wdevel/v150y2022ics0305750x21003466.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Dams mitigate the effect of rainfall shocks on Hindus-Muslims riots

Author

Listed:
  • Mary, Sebastien

Abstract

Sarsons (2015) finds that, while agricultural income in India is less sensitive to rainfall in dam-fed districts, rainfall shocks have a larger (or equally large) effect on religious riots between Muslims and Hindus in dam-fed districts than in rain-fed districts. This is inconsistent with agricultural income being the sole channel through which rainfall affects religious conflict in India. In this comment, we show that this result originates from the use of state-specific time trends and interaction models. Once we replace state-specific time trends with state-year fixed effects (in slit sample regressions) and allow state-year fixed effects to be different between rain-fed and dam-fed districts (in interaction models), we find that while (fractional) rainfall shocks affect agricultural production and religious violence in rain-fed districts, they have no effect on agricultural production and religious violence in dam-fed districts. In other words, dams fully mitigate the effect of rainfall shocks on agricultural output and religious violence in the Indian context.

Suggested Citation

  • Mary, Sebastien, 2022. "Dams mitigate the effect of rainfall shocks on Hindus-Muslims riots," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 150(C).
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:150:y:2022:i:c:s0305750x21003466
    DOI: 10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105731
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0305750X21003466
    Download Restriction: Full text for ScienceDirect subscribers only

    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1016/j.worlddev.2021.105731?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Anne T. Kuriakose & Rasmus Heltberg & William Wiseman & Cecilia Costella & Rachel Cipryk & Sabine Cornelius, 2013. "Climate-Responsive Social Protection," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 31, pages 19-34, November.
    2. Sarsons, Heather, 2015. "Rainfall and conflict: A cautionary tale," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 62-72.
    3. Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2014. "Drought and Civil War In Sub‐Saharan Africa," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 124(575), pages 201-244, March.
      • Couttenier, Mathieu & Hofstetter, Annie & Soubeyran, Raphael, 2013. "Drought and civil war in sub-Saharan Africa," INRAE Sciences Sociales, Institut national de recherche pour l'agriculture, l'alimentation et l'environnement (INRAE), Departement Sciences Sociales, Agriculture et Alimentation, Espace et Environnement (SAE2), vol. 2013, pages 1-6, March.
    4. Brambor, Thomas & Clark, William Roberts & Golder, Matt, 2006. "Understanding Interaction Models: Improving Empirical Analyses," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 14(1), pages 63-82, January.
    5. Anthony C. Fisher & W. Michael Hanemann & Michael J. Roberts & Wolfram Schlenker, 2012. "The Economic Impacts of Climate Change: Evidence from Agricultural Output and Random Fluctuations in Weather: Comment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 102(7), pages 3749-3760, December.
    6. Sylvain Weber, 2010. "bacon: An effective way to detect outliers in multivariate data using Stata (and Mata)," Stata Journal, StataCorp LP, vol. 10(3), pages 331-338, September.
    7. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    8. Strobl, Eric & Strobl, Robert O., 2011. "The distributional impact of large dams: Evidence from cropland productivity in Africa," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 432-450, November.
    9. Ricardo Mora & Iliana Reggio, 2019. "Alternative diff-in-diffs estimators with several pretreatment periods," Econometric Reviews, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(5), pages 465-486, May.
    10. Griliches, Zvi & Hausman, Jerry A., 1986. "Errors in variables in panel data," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(1), pages 93-118, February.
    11. Carter, David B. & Signorino, Curtis S., 2010. "Back to the Future: Modeling Time Dependence in Binary Data," Political Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 18(3), pages 271-292, July.
    12. Anirban Mitra & Debraj Ray, 2014. "Implications of an Economic Theory of Conflict: Hindu-Muslim Violence in India," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 122(4), pages 719-765.
    13. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    14. Samuel Bazzi & Christopher Blattman, 2014. "Economic Shocks and Conflict: Evidence from Commodity Prices," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 6(4), pages 1-38, October.
    15. Sara Cools & Martin Flatø & Andreas Kotsadam, 2020. "Rainfall shocks and intimate partner violence in sub-Saharan Africa," Journal of Peace Research, Peace Research Institute Oslo, vol. 57(3), pages 377-390, May.
    16. Skoufias, Emmanuel, 2003. "Economic Crises and Natural Disasters: Coping Strategies and Policy Implications," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(7), pages 1087-1102, July.
    17. Marshall Burke & Solomon M. Hsiang & Edward Miguel, 2015. "Climate and Conflict," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 577-617, August.
    18. Solomon Asfaw & Alessandro Carraro & Benjamin Davis & Sudhanshu Handa & David Seidenfeld, 2017. "Cash transfer programmes, weather shocks and household welfare: evidence from a randomised experiment in Zambia," Journal of Development Effectiveness, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 9(4), pages 419-442, October.
    19. Mary, Sébastien & Mishra, Ashok K., 2020. "Humanitarian food aid and civil conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. Hsiang, Solomon M & Meng, Kyle C, 2014. "Reconciling disagreement over climate–conflict results in Africa," University of California at Santa Barbara, Recent Works in Economics qt8g60j076, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
    21. Solomon M. Hsiang & Kyle C. Meng & Mark A. Cane, 2011. "Civil conflicts are associated with the global climate," Nature, Nature, vol. 476(7361), pages 438-441, August.
    22. Mathew Koll Roxy, 2017. "Land warming revives monsoon," Nature Climate Change, Nature, vol. 7(8), pages 549-550, August.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. repec:ags:aaea22:335448 is not listed on IDEAS

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Sébastien Mary, 2022. "A replication note on humanitarian aid and violence," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 62(3), pages 1465-1494, March.
    2. Breckner, Miriam & Sunde, Uwe, 2019. "Temperature extremes, global warming, and armed conflict: new insights from high resolution data," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 123(C), pages 1-1.
    3. Nicolas Berman & Mathieu Couttenier & Raphael Soubeyran, 2021. "Fertile Ground for Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 19(1), pages 82-127.
    4. Crost, Benjamin & Duquennois, Claire & Felter, Joseph H. & Rees, Daniel I., 2018. "Climate change, agricultural production and civil conflict: Evidence from the Philippines," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 379-395.
    5. Ishak, Phoebe W., 2022. "Murder nature: Weather and violent crime in rural Brazil," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    6. Camille Laville, 2018. "The econometrical causal analysis of internal conflicts: The evolutions of a growing literature [L’analyse économétrique des conflits internes par l’approche causale : les évolutions d’une littérat," Working Papers hal-01940461, HAL.
    7. Lu, Yifan & Yamazaki, Satoshi, 2023. "Fish to fight: Does catching more fish increase conflicts in Indonesia?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 170(C).
    8. Martin-Shields, Charles P. & Stojetz, Wolfgang, 2019. "Food security and conflict: Empirical challenges and future opportunities for research and policy making on food security and conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 150-164.
    9. Melissa Dell & Benjamin F. Jones & Benjamin A. Olken, 2014. "What Do We Learn from the Weather? The New Climate-Economy Literature," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 52(3), pages 740-798, September.
    10. Benjamin Crost & Joseph H Felter, 2020. "Export Crops and Civil Conflict," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 18(3), pages 1484-1520.
    11. Stoop, Nik & Verpoorten, Marijke & van der Windt, Peter, 2019. "Artisanal or industrial conflict minerals? Evidence from Eastern Congo," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 122(C), pages 660-674.
    12. Eoin McGuirk & Marshall Burke, 2020. "The Economic Origins of Conflict in Africa," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 128(10), pages 3940-3997.
    13. Gatti, N. & Baylis, K. & Crost, B., 2018. "Does climate change cause conflict? Damned if you do, damned if you don’t," 2018 Conference, July 28-August 2, 2018, Vancouver, British Columbia 275936, International Association of Agricultural Economists.
    14. Unfried, Kerstin & Kis-Katos, Krisztina & Poser, Tilman, 2022. "Water scarcity and social conflict," Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, Elsevier, vol. 113(C).
    15. Mary, Sebastien & Shaw, Kelsey & Colen, Liesbeth & Gomez y Paloma, Sergio, 2020. "Does agricultural aid reduce child stunting?," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 130(C).
    16. Sunde, Uwe & Cervellati, Matteo & Esposito, Elena & Valmori, Simona, 2016. "Malaria Risk and Civil Violence," CEPR Discussion Papers 11496, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Panza, Laura & Swee, Eik Leong, 2023. "Fanning the flames: Rainfall shocks, inter‐ethnic income inequality, and conflict intensification in Mandate Palestine," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 206(C), pages 71-94.
    18. Andrew M. Linke & Frank D. W. Witmer & John O’Loughlin & J. Terrence McCabe & Jaroslav Tir, 2018. "Drought, Local Institutional Contexts, and Support for Violence in Kenya," Journal of Conflict Resolution, Peace Science Society (International), vol. 62(7), pages 1544-1578, August.
    19. Mary, Sébastien & Mishra, Ashok K., 2020. "Humanitarian food aid and civil conflict," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 126(C).
    20. Nicolas Gatti & Kathy Baylis & Benjamin Crost, 2021. "Can Irrigation Infrastructure Mitigate the Effect of Rainfall Shocks on Conflict? Evidence from Indonesia," American Journal of Agricultural Economics, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 103(1), pages 211-231, January.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Rainfall; Religious conflict; Dams; Time dependence; Common shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • F35 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Foreign Aid
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O19 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - International Linkages to Development; Role of International Organizations
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices
    • Q18 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Agricultural Policy; Food Policy; Animal Welfare Policy

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:wdevel:v:150:y:2022:i:c:s0305750x21003466. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/worlddev .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.