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A Dynamic Theory of Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict

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  • Morelli, Massimo
  • Esteban, Joan
  • Flamand, Sabine
  • Rohner, Dominic

Abstract

This paper proposes an integrated dynamic theory of bargaining and conflict between ethnic groups, delivering novel predictions on secessionist versus centrist conflict. Ethnic identities, inequality and intertemporal preferences are predicted to impact the risk of secessionist conflict and the risk of centrist conflict in different directions. Beside obtaining a full characterization of equilibrium for every set of conditions, we also show empirical evidence that cultural similarity reduces the scope for secessionist conflict (compared to centrist conflict); that small ethnic groups stick more often to peaceful union; that higher patience and higher group inequality fuels secessionism.

Suggested Citation

  • Morelli, Massimo & Esteban, Joan & Flamand, Sabine & Rohner, Dominic, 2020. "A Dynamic Theory of Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 14635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:14635
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

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    2. Dominic Rohner & Mathias Thoenig, 2021. "The Elusive Peace Dividend of Development Policy: From War Traps to Macro Complementarities," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 13(1), pages 111-131, August.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secessions; Conflict; Surplus sharing; Patience;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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