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A Dynamic Theory of Secession

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  • Rohner, Dominic
  • Esteban, Joan
  • Flamand, Sabine
  • Morelli, Massimo

Abstract

This paper builds a dynamic theory of secessions, conflictual or peaceful, analyzing the forward looking interaction between groups in a country. The proposed framework allows us to jointly address several key stylized facts on secession, and generates several novel predictions. We find that if a group out of power is small enough, then the group in power can always maintain peace with an acceptable offer of surplus sharing for every period, while when there is a mismatch between the relative size and the relative surplus contribution of the minority group, conflict followed by secession can occur. Accepted peaceful secession is predicted for large groups of similar prosperity, and higher patience is associated to a higher chance of secession. We formulate as a result a number of policy recommendations on various dimensions of federalism and other institutions.

Suggested Citation

  • Rohner, Dominic & Esteban, Joan & Flamand, Sabine & Morelli, Massimo, 2018. "A Dynamic Theory of Secession," CEPR Discussion Papers 12398, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    • Handle: RePEc:cpr:ceprdp:12398
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    Cited by:

    1. Flamand, Sabine, 2019. "Partial decentralization as a way to prevent secessionist conflict," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 159-178.
    2. Enriqueta Aragonès & Clara Ponsatí, 2021. "The stability of multi-level governments," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 33(1), pages 140-166, January.
    3. Enriqueta Aragonès & Clara Ponsatí, 2019. "The Stability of Multi-Level Governments," Working Papers 1109, Barcelona School of Economics.
    4. Musatov, D. & Savvateev, A., 2022. "Mathematical models of stable jurisdiction partitions: A survey of results and new directions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 54(2), pages 12-38.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secessions; Conflict; Surplus sharing; Mismatch;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C7 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Game Theory and Bargaining Theory
    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions

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