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Civil conflict and secessions

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  • Enrico Spolaore

Abstract

This paper studies secessions as the outcome of conflict between regions. We study under what conditions regions will divert costly resources to fight each other over political borders. We derive the probability of secession and the amount of resources diverted to separatist conflict, and show how those variables depend on factors such as heterogeneity costs, economies of scale, relative size, and external threats. We also model civil conflict over types of government, after borders have been determined, and study how this political conflict affects the incentives to secede.
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Suggested Citation

  • Enrico Spolaore, 2008. "Civil conflict and secessions," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 9(1), pages 45-63, January.
    • Handle: RePEc:spr:ecogov:v:9:y:2008:i:1:p:45-63
    DOI: 10.1007/s10101-007-0034-3
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    1. Alberto Alesina & Enrico Spolaore, 1997. "On the Number and Size of Nations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 112(4), pages 1027-1056.
    2. Enrico Spolaore & Alberto Alesina & Romain Wacziarg, 2000. "Economic Integration and Political Disintegration," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 90(5), pages 1276-1296, December.
    3. Stergios Skaperdas & Samarth Vaidya, 2012. "Persuasion as a contest," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 51(2), pages 465-486, October.
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    5. Grossman, Herschel I, 1994. "Production, Appropriation, and Land Reform," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(3), pages 705-712, June.
    6. Alesina, Alberto & Spolaore, Enrico, 2005. "War, peace, and the size of countries," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 89(7), pages 1333-1354, July.
    7. Grossman, Herschel I & Kim, Minseong, 1995. "Swords or Plowshares? A Theory of the Security of Claims to Property," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(6), pages 1275-1288, December.
    8. Hirshleifer, Jack, 1995. "Anarchy and Its Breakdown," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 103(1), pages 26-52, February.
    9. Bordignon, Massimo & Brusco, Sandro, 2001. "Optimal secession rules," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 45(10), pages 1811-1834, December.
    10. Münster, Johannes & Staal, Klaas, 2005. "War with Outsiders Makes Peace Inside," Discussion Paper Series of SFB/TR 15 Governance and the Efficiency of Economic Systems 75, Free University of Berlin, Humboldt University of Berlin, University of Bonn, University of Mannheim, University of Munich.
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    Cited by:

    1. Enrico Spolaore & Romain Wacziarg, 2016. "War and Relatedness," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 98(5), pages 925-939, December.
    2. Enrico Spolaore, 2016. "The economics of political borders," Chapters, in: Eugene Kontorovich & Francesco Parisi (ed.), Economic Analysis of International Law, chapter 1, pages 11-43, Edward Elgar Publishing.
    3. Enrico Spolaore, 2009. "National Borders, Conflict and Peace," CESifo Working Paper Series 2860, CESifo.
    4. Morelli, Massimo & Esteban, Joan & Flamand, Sabine & Rohner, Dominic, 2020. "A Dynamic Theory of Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict," CEPR Discussion Papers 14635, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    5. Flamand, Sabine, 2019. "Partial decentralization as a way to prevent secessionist conflict," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 159-178.
    6. Markus Brückner, 2010. "Population Size and Civil Conflict Risk: Is there a Causal Link?," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 120(544), pages 535-550, May.
    7. Samuel Bazzi & Matthew Gudgeon, "undated". "Local Government Proliferation, Diversity, and Conflict," Boston University - Department of Economics - The Institute for Economic Development Working Papers Series dp-271, Boston University - Department of Economics.
    8. Klaus Abbink & Jordi Brandts, 2016. "Political autonomy and independence: Theory and experimental evidence," Journal of Theoretical Politics, , vol. 28(3), pages 461-496, July.
    9. Tanzi, Vito, 2008. "The future of fiscal federalism," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Market Processes and Governance SP II 2008-03, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
    10. Ahmed Mahmud & Juan Vargas, 2011. "Combatant recruitment and the outcome of war," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 12(1), pages 51-74, March.
    11. Musatov, D. & Savvateev, A., 2022. "Mathematical models of stable jurisdiction partitions: A survey of results and new directions," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 54(2), pages 12-38.
    12. Libman, Alexander Mikhailovich, 2009. "Эндогенные Границы И Распределение Власти В Федерациях И Международных Сообществах [ENDOGENOUS BOUNDARIES AND DISTRIBUTION OF POWER In the Federation]," MPRA Paper 16473, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    13. Vincent Anesi & Philippe De Donder, 2013. "Voting under the threat of secession: accommodation versus repression," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 41(2), pages 241-261, July.
    14. Sambanis, Nicholas & Milanovic, Branko, 2011. "Explaining the demand for sovereignty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5888, The World Bank.
    15. Friedhelm Hentschel, 2022. "Third-party intervention in secessions," Economics of Governance, Springer, vol. 23(1), pages 65-82, March.
    16. Joan Esteban & Sabine Flamand & Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2017. "Stay, Split or Strike: Theory and Evidence on Secessionist vs Centrist Conflict," Working Papers 609, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
    17. Joan-Maria Esteban & Sabine Flamand & Massimo Morelli & Dominic Rohner, 2018. "The Survival and Demise of the State: A Dynamic Theory of Secession," Working Papers 1028, Barcelona School of Economics.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Secessions; Conflict technology; Heterogeneity costs; Economies of scale; External threats; D74; H10; H56; H77;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • D74 - Microeconomics - - Analysis of Collective Decision-Making - - - Conflict; Conflict Resolution; Alliances; Revolutions
    • H10 - Public Economics - - Structure and Scope of Government - - - General
    • H56 - Public Economics - - National Government Expenditures and Related Policies - - - National Security and War
    • H77 - Public Economics - - State and Local Government; Intergovernmental Relations - - - Intergovernmental Relations; Federalism

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