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Persuasion as a Contest

We examine how the probability of persuading an audience depends on resources expended by contending parties. We use a Bayesian approach whereby the audience makes inferences solely based on the evidence produced by the constants. We find conditions that yield the well-known additive contest success functions, including the logit function. We also find conditions that produce a generalized "difference" functional form. In all cases, there are three main determinants of audience choice: (i) the truth and other objective parameters of the environment; (ii) the biases of the audience; and (iii) the resources expended by the interested parties.

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File URL: http://www.deakin.edu.au/buslaw/aef/workingpapers/papers/2008_07eco.pdf
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Paper provided by Deakin University, Faculty of Business and Law, School of Accounting, Economics and Finance in its series Economics Series with number 2008_07.

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Length: 32 pages
Date of creation: 16 Oct 2008
Date of revision:
Handle: RePEc:dkn:econwp:eco_2008_07
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Web page: http://www.deakin.edu.au/buslaw/aef/index.php

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