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Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables

Author

Listed:
  • Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

  • Yoshino, Naoyuki

    (Asian Development Bank Institute)

Abstract

We attempt to ascertain how sharp oil price changes can affect oil-exporting and oil-importing economies. To this end, we applied a simultaneous equation model (SEM) through a weighted two-stage least squares estimation method to different countries with business relations from Q1 2000 to Q4 2015. In the case of oil-exporting countries—Iran, the Russian Federation, United Arab Emirates, Indonesia, and Kazakhstan—our findings revealed that they totally benefit from oil price increases. In the case of oil-importing countries, the effects are more diverse. To derive a better interpretation, we divided them into four groups: European Union (EU) members (Germany, Italy, the Netherlands, and Poland); East Asian economies (Japan; the People’s Republic of China; the Republic of Korea; Viet Nam; Taipei,China; Singapore; and Hong Kong, China); Commonwealth of Independent States (Ukraine and Belarus); and others (United States, India, and Turkey). Our results showed that all these countries importing oil face a negative supply shock, except Turkey, which benefits directly from an oil price shock. Furthermore, the indirect effect coefficient received through trade for all these countries was positive.

Suggested Citation

  • Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Rasoulinezhad, Ehsan & Yoshino, Naoyuki, 2017. "Trade Linkages and Transmission of Oil Price Fluctuations in a Model Incorporating Monetary Variables," ADBI Working Papers 777, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  • Handle: RePEc:ris:adbiwp:0777
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    crude oil price; trade linkage; direct and indirect effect of oil shocks;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C30 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - General
    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • Q43 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Energy - - - Energy and the Macroeconomy

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