IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/h/nbr/nberch/12789.html

The Geography of the Great Recession

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012

Author

Listed:
  • Alessandra Fogli
  • Enoch Hill
  • Fabrizio Perri

Abstract

This paper documents, using county level data, some geographical features of the US business cycle over the past 30 years, with particular focus on the Great Recession. It shows that county level unemployment rates are spatially dispersed and spatially correlated, and documents how these characteristics evolve during recessions. It then shows that some of these features of county data can be generated by a model which includes simple channels of transmission of economic conditions from a county to its neighbors. The model suggests that these local channels are quantitatively important for the amplification/muting of aggregate shocks.
(This abstract was borrowed from another version of this item.)

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandra Fogli & Enoch Hill & Fabrizio Perri, 2012. "The Geography of the Great Recession," NBER Chapters, in: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012, pages 305-331, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12789
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.nber.org/chapters/c12789.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Klaus Desmet & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2014. "Spatial Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(4), pages 1211-1243, April.
    2. Burgess, Simon & Profit, Stefan, 2001. "Externalities in the matching of workers and firms in ritain," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 313-333, June.
    3. Michael Greenstone & Richard Hornbeck & Enrico Moretti, 2010. "Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plant Openings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 536-598, June.
    4. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 58(1), pages 74-117, August.
    5. Martin, Philippe & Mayer, Thierry & Mayneris, Florian, 2011. "Spatial concentration and plant-level productivity in France," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 69(2), pages 182-195, March.
    6. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2011. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 7, pages 125-173.
    7. James LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2010. "Spatial Econometrics," Book Chapters, in: Web Book of Regional Science, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    8. Klaus Desmet & Esteban Rossi‐Hansberg, 2010. "On Spatial Dynamics," Journal of Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 50(1), pages 43-63, February.
    9. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2012. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 94(4), pages 935-947, November.
    10. Eleonora Patacchini & Yves Zenou, 2007. "Spatial dependence in local unemployment rates," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 169-191, March.
    11. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(4), pages 1567-1606.
    12. John Y. Campbell & Stefano Giglio & Parag Pathak, 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(5), pages 2108-2131, August.
    13. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/c8dmi8nm4pdjkuc9g8mc6ihim is not listed on IDEAS
    14. Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp, 2011. "Nature or Nurture? Learning and the Geography of Female Labor Force Participation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1103-1138, July.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Lorenzo Caliendo & Fernando Parro & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg & Pierre-Daniel Sarte, 2018. "The Impact of Regional and Sectoral Productivity Changes on the U.S. Economy," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 85(4), pages 2042-2096.
    2. Hyun, Junghwan, 2016. "Financial crises and the evolution of credit reallocation: Evidence from Korea," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 25-34.
    3. Wall, Howard, 2023. "The Great, Greater, and Greatest Recessions of US States," Journal of Regional Analysis and Policy, Mid-Continent Regional Science Association, vol. 53(01), January.
    4. Vicente Cuñat & Dragana Cvijanović & Kathy Yuan, 2018. "Within-Bank Spillovers of Real Estate Shocks," The Review of Corporate Finance Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 7(2), pages 157-193.
    5. Saara Tamminen, 2017. "Regional effects or none? Firms' profitability during the Great Recession in Finland," Papers in Regional Science, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 96(1), pages 33-59, March.
    6. Sarah Bohn & Robert Santillano, 2017. "Local Immigration Enforcement and Local Economies," Industrial Relations: A Journal of Economy and Society, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 56(2), pages 236-262, April.
    7. Erin McGuire, 2021. "Entrepreneurial experience and firm exit over the business cycle," Journal of Economics & Management Strategy, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 308-337, May.
    8. Stumpner, Sebastian, 2019. "Trade and the geographic spread of the great recession," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 169-180.
    9. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2014. "Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States and Europe," IMF Working Papers 2014/026, International Monetary Fund.
    10. Mai Dao & Davide Furceri & Mr. Prakash Loungani, 2014. "Regional Labor Market Adjustments in the United States," IMF Working Papers 2014/211, International Monetary Fund.
    11. Rodney Ramcharan & Stéphane Verani & Skander J. Van Den Heuvel, 2016. "From Wall Street to Main Street: The Impact of the Financial Crisis on Consumer Credit Supply," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(3), pages 1323-1356, June.
    12. Andrew Foote & Michel Grosz & Ann Stevens, 2019. "Locate Your Nearest Exit: Mass Layoffs and Local Labor Market Response," ILR Review, Cornell University, ILR School, vol. 72(1), pages 101-126, January.
    13. Arabinda Basistha & Casto Martin Montero Kuscevic, 2017. "The role of spatial GDP spillovers in state-level Okun’s law," Letters in Spatial and Resource Sciences, Springer, vol. 10(3), pages 353-360, October.
    14. Ivan Luzardo-Luna, 2022. "Regional Employment Polarization in a Time of Crisis: The case of Interwar Britain," PIER Working Paper Archive 22-025, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    15. Sergei S. Shibaev, 2016. "Recession Propagation In Small Regional Economies: Spatial Spillovers And Endogenous Clustering," Working Paper 1369, Economics Department, Queen's University.
    16. Jaqueson K. Galimberti, 2020. "Forecasting GDP Growth from Outer Space," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 82(4), pages 697-722, August.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. enoch hill & Fabrizio Perri & Alessandra Fogli, 2015. "Spatial Business Cycles," 2015 Meeting Papers 1356, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    2. Breinlich, Holger & Ottaviano, Gianmarco I.P. & Temple, Jonathan R.W., 2014. "Regional Growth and Regional Decline," Handbook of Economic Growth, in: Philippe Aghion & Steven Durlauf (ed.), Handbook of Economic Growth, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 4, pages 683-779, Elsevier.
    3. repec:esx:essedp:729 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Janet Currie & Erdal Tekin, 2015. "Is There a Link between Foreclosure and Health?," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(1), pages 63-94, February.
    5. Sumit Agarwal & Itzhak Ben-David & Vincent Yao, 2015. "Collateral Valuation and Borrower Financial Constraints: Evidence from the Residential Real Estate Market," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 61(9), pages 2220-2240, September.
    6. Jaison R. Abel & Richard Deitz, 2017. "Underemployment in the Early Careers of College Graduates following the Great Recession," NBER Chapters, in: Education, Skills, and Technical Change: Implications for Future US GDP Growth, pages 149-181, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    7. Nicholas Kacher & Luke Petach, 2021. "Boon or Burden? Evaluating the Competing Effects of House-Price Shocks on Regional Entrepreneurship," Economic Development Quarterly, , vol. 35(4), pages 287-304, November.
    8. Stephen J. Redding & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2017. "Quantitative Spatial Economics," Annual Review of Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 21-58, September.
    9. Luis Angeles, 2020. "Four Phases in the History of Money," Working Papers 2020_24, Business School - Economics, University of Glasgow.
    10. Tsangaris, Spyridon & Xepapadeas, Anastasios & Yannacopoulos, Athanasios N. & Salvati, Luca, 2024. "Spatial externalities, R&D spillovers, and endogenous technological change," Regional Science and Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C).
    11. Yifan Chen & Sean Wilkoff & Jiro Yoshida, 2024. "Amazon is coming to town: Sequential information revelation in the housing market," Real Estate Economics, American Real Estate and Urban Economics Association, vol. 52(2), pages 277-323, March.
    12. Bernstein, Shai & Colonnelli, Emanuele & Giroud, Xavier & Iverson, Benjamin, 2019. "Bankruptcy spillovers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 133(3), pages 608-633.
    13. Gathmann, Christina & Helm, Ines & Schönberg, Uta, 2014. "Spillover Effects in Local Labor Markets: Evidence from Mass Layoffs," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100378, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    14. Zhang, Wenjia & Kockelman, Kara M., 2016. "Optimal policies in cities with congestion and agglomeration externalities: Congestion tolls, labor subsidies, and place-based strategies," Journal of Urban Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 64-86.
    15. Paolo Gelain & Kevin J. Lansing & Caterina Mendicino, 2013. "House Prices, Credit Growth, and Excess Volatility: Implications for Monetary and Macroprudential Policy," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 9(2), pages 219-276, June.
    16. repec:beo:journl:v:62:y:2018:i:216:p:7-34 is not listed on IDEAS
    17. Gene Amromin & Jennifer Huang & Clemens Sialm & Edward Zhong, 2018. "Complex Mortgages [Why don’t lenders renegotiate more home mortgages? Redefaults, self-cures, and securitization]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 22(6), pages 1975-2007.
    18. Dimitris Christelis & Dimitris Georgarakos & Tullio Jappelli & Luigi Pistaferri & Maarten van Rooij, 2019. "Asymmetric Consumption Effects of Transitory Income Shocks," The Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 129(622), pages 2322-2341.
    19. Òscar Jordá & Moritz Schularick & Alan M. Taylor, 2016. "Sovereigns Versus Banks: Credit, Crises, and Consequences," Journal of the European Economic Association, European Economic Association, vol. 14(1), pages 45-79.
    20. Dimitris Christelis & Michael Ehrmann & Dimitris Georgarakos, 2021. "Exploring Differences in Household Debt across the United States and Euro Area Countries," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 53(2-3), pages 477-501, March.
    21. Combes, Pierre-Philippe & Gobillon, Laurent, 2015. "The Empirics of Agglomeration Economies," Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, in: Gilles Duranton & J. V. Henderson & William C. Strange (ed.), Handbook of Regional and Urban Economics, edition 1, volume 5, chapter 0, pages 247-348, Elsevier.
    22. Karpestam, Peter & Johansson, Sebastian, 2019. "Interest-only-mortgages and housing market fluctuations in Denmark," Journal of Housing Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(C).

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • E32 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Prices, Business Fluctuations, and Cycles - - - Business Fluctuations; Cycles
    • R12 - Urban, Rural, Regional, Real Estate, and Transportation Economics - - General Regional Economics - - - Size and Spatial Distributions of Regional Economic Activity; Interregional Trade (economic geography)

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12789. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: the person in charge (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/nberrus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.