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The Geography of the Great Recession

In: NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012

  • Alessandra Fogli
  • Enoch Hill
  • Fabrizio Perri

This paper documents, using county level data, some geographical features of the US business cycle over the past 30 years, with particular focus on the Great Recession. It shows that county level unemployment rates are spatially dispersed and spatially correlated, and documents how these characteristics evolve during recessions. It then shows that some of these features of county data can be generated by a model which includes simple channels of transmission of economic conditions from a county to its neighbors. The model suggests that these local channels are quantitatively important for the amplification/muting of aggregate shocks.

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This chapter was published in:
  • Francesco Giavazzi & Kenneth D. West, 2013. "NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics 2012," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number giav12-1, Abril.
  • This item is provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Chapters with number 12789.
    Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberch:12789
    Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
    Phone: 617-868-3900
    Web page: http://www.nber.org
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    1. Michael Greenstone & Richard Hornbeck & Enrico Moretti, 2010. "Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plant Openings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 536-598, 06.
    2. Giglio, Stefano & Pathak, Parag & Campbell, John Y., 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," Scholarly Articles 9887623, Harvard University Department of Economics.
    3. Burgess, Simon & Profit, Stefan, 1998. "Externalities in the Matching of Workers and Firms in Britain," CEPR Discussion Papers 1854, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    4. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2010. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 77(4), pages 1567-1606.
    5. Klaus Desmet & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2009. "On Spatial dynamics," Working Papers 2009-16, Instituto Madrileño de Estudios Avanzados (IMDEA) Ciencias Sociales.
    6. Eleonora Patacchini & Yves Zenou, 2007. "Spatial dependence in local unemployment rates," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 169-191, March.
    7. James LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2010. "Spatial Econometrics," Book Chapters, in: Web Book of Regional Science Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
    8. Klaus Desmet & Esteban Rossi-Hansberg, 2009. "Spatial Development," NBER Working Papers 15349, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    9. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2011. "The Propagation of Regional Recessions," NBER Working Papers 16657, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    10. MARTIN, Philippe & MAYER, Thierry & MAYNERIS, Florian, . "Spatial concentration and plant-level productivity in France," CORE Discussion Papers RP -2273, Université catholique de Louvain, Center for Operations Research and Econometrics (CORE).
    11. Simon Burgess & Stefan Profit, 2001. "Externalities in the matching of workers and firms in Britain," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 20130, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    12. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009," NBER Working Papers 15896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp, 2011. "Nature or Nurture? Learning and the Geography of Female Labor Force Participation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1103-1138, 07.
    14. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 74-117, August.
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