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The Geography of the Great Recession

  • Alessandra Fogli
  • Enoch Hill
  • Fabrizio Perri

This paper documents, using county level data, some geographical features of the US business cycle over the past 30 years, with particular focus on the Great Recession. It shows that county level unemployment rates are spatially dispersed and spatially correlated, and documents how these characteristics evolve during recessions. It then shows that some of these features of county data can be generated by a model which includes simple channels of transmission of economic conditions from a county to its neighbors. The model suggests that these local channels are quantitatively important for the amplification/muting of aggregate shocks.

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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 18447.

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Date of creation: Oct 2012
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Publication status: published as Alessandra Fogli & Enoch Hill & Fabrizio Perri, 2013. "The Geography of the Great Recession," NBER International Seminar on Macroeconomics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 9(1), pages 305 - 331.
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:18447
Note: EFG
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  1. Burgess, Simon M. & Profit, Stefan, 1998. "Externalities in the matching of workers and firms in Britain," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,19, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
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  4. Giglio, Stefano & Pathak, Parag & Campbell, John Y., 2011. "Forced Sales and House Prices," Scholarly Articles 9887623, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  5. Michael Greenstone & Richard Hornbeck & Enrico Moretti, 2010. "Identifying Agglomeration Spillovers: Evidence from Winners and Losers of Large Plant Openings," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 118(3), pages 536-598, 06.
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  8. Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh & Pierre-Olivier Weill, 2006. "Why Has House Price Dispersion Gone Up?," NBER Working Papers 12538, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Alessandra Fogli & Laura Veldkamp, 2011. "Nature or Nurture? Learning and the Geography of Female Labor Force Participation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(4), pages 1103-1138, 07.
  10. Atif R. Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007 to 2009," NBER Working Papers 15896, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  11. James D. Hamilton & Michael T. Owyang, 2009. "The propagation of regional recessions," Working Papers 2009-013, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  12. James LeSage & R. Kelley Pace, 2010. "Spatial Econometrics," Book Chapters, in: Web Book of Regional Science Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
  13. Eleonora Patacchini & Yves Zenou, 2007. "Spatial dependence in local unemployment rates," Journal of Economic Geography, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 169-191, March.
  14. Atif Mian & Amir Sufi, 2010. "Household Leverage and the Recession of 2007–09," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 58(1), pages 74-117, August.
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