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The Economics of Inflation, Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rule, and Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Pakistan

  • Ather Maqsood Ahmed

    ()

    (National University of Sciences and Technology (Business School), Islamabad, Pakistan.)

  • Wasim Shahid Malik

    ()

    (Quaid-i-Azam University, Islamabad, Pakistan)

The objective of this study is to estimate a monetary policy reaction function for Pakistan. To do this, we use data for the period 1992Q4–2010Q2. Our results show that the State Bank of Pakistan reacts to changes in the inflation rate and economic activity in a manner that is consistent with the Taylor (1993) rule, and with the explicit objective of interest rate smoothing and exchange rate management. This policy has remained consistent for most of the sample period, except for the last two years, during which a price hike and the massive depreciation of domestic currency led to a significant change in the parameters of the policy reaction function. We also find evidence of nonlinearity in the reaction function as the response to an inflation rate above 6.4 percent is found to be more aggressive than that in low inflationary episodes.

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Article provided by Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics in its journal Lahore Journal of Economics.

Volume (Year): 16 (2011)
Issue (Month): Special Edition (September)
Pages: 213-232

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Handle: RePEc:lje:journl:v:16:y:2011:i:sp:p:213-232
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  1. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  2. Laurence Ball, 1998. "Policy Rules for Open Economies," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp9806, Reserve Bank of Australia.
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  7. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate and Inflation Inertia in Chile: a Structural Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 352, Central Bank of Chile.
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  10. Arby, Muhammad Farooq, 2008. "Some Issues in the National Income Accounts of Pakistan (Rebasing, Quarterly and Provincial Accounts and Growth Accounting)," MPRA Paper 32048, University Library of Munich, Germany.
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