Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate and Inflation Inertia in Chile: a Structural Approach
This paper estimates a DSGE model for Chile during the IT period using Bayesian techniques. In this setup, we investigate the way in which monetary policy has been designed. We also assess the performance of simple optimal rules under alternative preferences that the central bank may have, and we investigate whether the Phillips curve can be represented by a hybrid specification which considers inflation persistence. We conclude that the conduct of monetary policy in Chile during the last fifteen years can be characterized by a feedback rule in which the interest rate reacts to contemporaneous inflation misalignment from the target and to output deviations from its natural level. This policy presents an important degree of persistence, that has, however, declined in the past five years. Furthermore, fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate are not offset by the monetary authority: the interest rate response to movements in this variable is not different from zero. A second set of results indicates that inflation persistence, which is usually absent from the standard neo-Keynesian models, is a feature of the Chilean economy. In particular, a model in which the Phillips equation contains a lagged inflation term is preferred to an alternative one which does not consider inflation persistence. This inflation persistence has change in recent years, becoming less important than in the early nineties. On the other hand, since 1999 prices are adjusted less frequently: the probability of resetting prices has fallen. Finally, optimal simple rules for alternative preferences of the central bank show that, besides reacting to inflation and output, there are no welfare gains from reacting to exchange rate movements.
|Date of creation:||Dec 2005|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Casilla No967, Santiago|
Phone: (562) 670 2000
Fax: (562) 698 4847
Web page: http://www.bcentral.cl/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002.
"Fear of Floating,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
- Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2000. "Fear of Floating," NBER Working Papers 7993, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Reinhart, Carmen & Calvo, Guillermo, 2002. "Fear of floating," MPRA Paper 14000, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Clarida, Richard H, 2001. "The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 315-323, October.
- Richard Clarida, 2001. "The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies," NBER Working Papers 8603, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
- Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
- Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew Levin & Volker Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Working Papers 6570, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Andrew T. Levin & Volker W. Wieland & John C. Williams, 1998. "Robustness of simple monetary policy rules under model uncertainty," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 1998-45, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2059-2094.
- Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11-12), pages 2059-2094, September.
- Nicoletta Batini & Richard Harrison & Stephen P. Millard, 2001. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
- Nicoletta Batini & Stephen P. Millard & Richard Harrison, 2000. "Monetary Policy Rules For An Open Economy," Computing in Economics and Finance 2000 361, Society for Computational Economics.
- Nicoletta Batini & Richard Harrison & Stephen P Millard, 2001. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Bank of England working papers 149, Bank of England.
- Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2007. "New Keynesian Models for Chile in the Inflation-Targeting Period," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 13, pages 507-546 Central Bank of Chile. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)