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Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate and Inflation Inertia in Chile: a Structural Approach

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  • Rodrigo Caputo
  • Felipe Liendo

Abstract

This paper estimates a DSGE model for Chile during the IT period using Bayesian techniques. In this setup, we investigate the way in which monetary policy has been designed. We also assess the performance of simple optimal rules under alternative preferences that the central bank may have, and we investigate whether the Phillips curve can be represented by a hybrid specification which considers inflation persistence. We conclude that the conduct of monetary policy in Chile during the last fifteen years can be characterized by a feedback rule in which the interest rate reacts to contemporaneous inflation misalignment from the target and to output deviations from its natural level. This policy presents an important degree of persistence, that has, however, declined in the past five years. Furthermore, fluctuations in the nominal exchange rate are not offset by the monetary authority: the interest rate response to movements in this variable is not different from zero. A second set of results indicates that inflation persistence, which is usually absent from the standard neo-Keynesian models, is a feature of the Chilean economy. In particular, a model in which the Phillips equation contains a lagged inflation term is preferred to an alternative one which does not consider inflation persistence. This inflation persistence has change in recent years, becoming less important than in the early nineties. On the other hand, since 1999 prices are adjusted less frequently: the probability of resetting prices has fallen. Finally, optimal simple rules for alternative preferences of the central bank show that, besides reacting to inflation and output, there are no welfare gains from reacting to exchange rate movements.

Suggested Citation

  • Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo, 2005. "Monetary Policy, Exchange Rate and Inflation Inertia in Chile: a Structural Approach," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 352, Central Bank of Chile.
  • Handle: RePEc:chb:bcchwp:352
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Guillermo A. Calvo & Carmen M. Reinhart, 2002. "Fear of Floating," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 117(2), pages 379-408.
    2. Clarida, Richard H, 2001. "The Empirics of Monetary Policy Rules in Open Economies," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 6(4), pages 315-323, October.
    3. Juan Pablo Medina & Claudio Soto, 2005. "Oil Shocks and Monetary Policy in an Estimated DSGE Model for a Small Open Economy," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 353, Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Rabanal, Pau & Rubio-Ramirez, Juan F., 2005. "Comparing New Keynesian models of the business cycle: A Bayesian approach," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 52(6), pages 1151-1166, September.
    5. Andrew T.. Levin & Volker Wieland & John Williams, 1999. "Robustness of Simple Monetary Policy Rules under Model Uncertainty," NBER Chapters,in: Monetary Policy Rules, pages 263-318 National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. Batini, Nicoletta & Harrison, Richard & Millard, Stephen P., 2003. "Monetary policy rules for an open economy," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(11), pages 2059-2094.
    7. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2007. "New Keynesian Models for Chile in the Inflation-Targeting Period," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 13, pages 507-546 Central Bank of Chile.
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    Cited by:

    1. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2006. "New Keynesian Models For Chile During The Inflation Targeting Regime: A Structural Approach," Journal Economía Chilena (The Chilean Economy), Central Bank of Chile, vol. 9(3), pages 73-95, December.
    2. Ather Maqsood Ahmed & Wasim Shahid Malik, 2011. "The Economics of Inflation, Issues in the Design of Monetary Policy Rule, and Monetary Policy Reaction Function in Pakistan," Lahore Journal of Economics, Department of Economics, The Lahore School of Economics, vol. 16(Special E), pages 213-232, September.
    3. Marco Del Negro & Frank Schorfheide, 2009. "Inflation Dynamics in a Small Open Economy Model under Inflation Targeting: Some Evidence from Chile," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Carl E. Walsh & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Series (ed.), Monetary Policy under Uncertainty and Learning, edition 1, volume 13, chapter 13, pages 511-562 Central Bank of Chile.
    4. Rodrigo Caputo & Felipe Liendo & Juan Pablo Medina, 2007. "New Keynesian Models for Chile in the Inflation-Targeting Period," Central Banking, Analysis, and Economic Policies Book Series,in: Frederic S. Miskin & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel & Norman Loayza (Series Editor) & Klaus Schmidt-Hebbel (Se (ed.), Monetary Policy under Inflation Targeting, edition 1, volume 11, chapter 13, pages 507-546 Central Bank of Chile.
    5. Rodrigo Caputo G. & Igal Magendzo, 2009. "Do Exchange Rate Regimes Matter For Inflation And Exchange Rate Dynamics? The Case Of Central America," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 517, Central Bank of Chile.
    6. Luis Felipe Céspedes & Rodrigo Valdés, 2006. "Autonomía de Bancos Centrales: La Experiencia Chilena," Working Papers Central Bank of Chile 358, Central Bank of Chile.

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