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Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting

Author

Listed:
  • Eichler Michael
  • Grothe Oliver
  • Tuerk Dennis
  • Manner Hans

    (METEOR)

Abstract

Predicting the occurrence of extreme prices, so-called spikes, is one of the greatest challengeswhen modeling electricity spot prices. Despite the fact that recently new insights have beenachieved, the contemporaneous literature seems to be still at its beginning of understanding thedi fferentmechanisms that drive spike probabilities. We therefore reconsider the problem offorecasting the occurrence of spikes, in the Australian electricity market. For this purpose, we first discuss properties of the price data with a focus on the occurrence of spikes. We thenpropose simple models for the probability of spikes which take these properties into account. Themodels compare favorably for in- and out-of-sample forecasts to a competing approach based on theautoregressive conditional hazard model.

Suggested Citation

  • Eichler Michael & Grothe Oliver & Tuerk Dennis & Manner Hans, 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
  • Handle: RePEc:unm:umamet:2012029
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    File URL: https://cris.maastrichtuniversity.nl/portal/files/873464/content
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Stephen Machin & Olivier Marie & Sunčica Vujić, 2012. "Youth Crime and Education Expansion," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 13(4), pages 366-384, November.
    2. Eichler, M. & Türk, D., 2013. "Fitting semiparametric Markov regime-switching models to electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 614-624.
    3. Volodymyr Korniichuk, 2012. "Forecasting extreme electricity spot prices," Cologne Graduate School Working Paper Series 03-14, Cologne Graduate School in Management, Economics and Social Sciences.

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