IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/bla/ecorec/v89y2013i287p508-521.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Semi-parametric Forecasting of Spikes in Electricity Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Adam Clements
  • Joanne Fuller
  • Stan Hurn

Abstract

No abstract is available for this item.

Suggested Citation

  • Adam Clements & Joanne Fuller & Stan Hurn, 2013. "Semi-parametric Forecasting of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 89(287), pages 508-521, December.
    • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:89:y:2013:i:287:p:508-521
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1111/1475-4932.12072
    Download Restriction: Access to full text is restricted to subscribers.
    ---><---

    As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Fernandes, Marcelo & Grammig, Joachim, 2006. "A family of autoregressive conditional duration models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 130(1), pages 1-23, January.
    2. Crespo Cuaresma, Jesús & Hlouskova, Jaroslava & Kossmeier, Stephan & Obersteiner, Michael, 2004. "Forecasting electricity spot-prices using linear univariate time-series models," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 77(1), pages 87-106, January.
    3. James D. Hamilton & Oscar Jorda, 2002. "A Model of the Federal Funds Rate Target," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 110(5), pages 1135-1167, October.
    4. Mount, Timothy D. & Ning, Yumei & Cai, Xiaobin, 2006. "Predicting price spikes in electricity markets using a regime-switching model with time-varying parameters," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 62-80, January.
    5. Knittel, Christopher R. & Roberts, Michael R., 2005. "An empirical examination of restructured electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(5), pages 791-817, September.
    6. Bierbrauer, Michael & Menn, Christian & Rachev, Svetlozar T. & Truck, Stefan, 2007. "Spot and derivative pricing in the EEX power market," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(11), pages 3462-3485, November.
    7. Helyette Geman & A. Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," Post-Print halshs-00144198, HAL.
    8. Alvaro Cartea & Marcelo Figueroa, 2005. "Pricing in Electricity Markets: A Mean Reverting Jump Diffusion Model with Seasonality," Applied Mathematical Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 313-335.
    9. M. T. Barlow, 2002. "A Diffusion Model For Electricity Prices," Mathematical Finance, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 12(4), pages 287-298, October.
    10. Christensen, T.M. & Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 2012. "Forecasting spikes in electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-411.
    11. Mizrach, B, 1992. "Multivariate Nearest-Neighbor Forecasts of EMS Exchange Rates," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 7(S), pages 151-163, Suppl. De.
    12. Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
    13. Bystrom, Hans N. E., 2005. "Extreme value theory and extremely large electricity price changes," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 14(1), pages 41-55.
    14. Robert F. Engle & Jeffrey R. Russell, 1998. "Autoregressive Conditional Duration: A New Model for Irregularly Spaced Transaction Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(5), pages 1127-1162, September.
    15. Becker Ralf & Clements Adam E & Hurn Stan, 2011. "Semi-Parametric Forecasting of Realized Volatility," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 15(3), pages 1-23, May.
    16. Rudebusch, Glenn D. & Williams, John C., 2009. "Forecasting Recessions: The Puzzle of the Enduring Power of the Yield Curve," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 27(4), pages 492-503.
    17. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1433 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. Huisman, Ronald & Mahieu, Ronald, 2003. "Regime jumps in electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(5), pages 425-434, September.
    19. Hélyette Geman & Andrea Roncoroni, 2006. "Understanding the Fine Structure of Electricity Prices," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 79(3), pages 1225-1262, May.
    20. Ralf Becker & Stan Hurn & Vlad Pavlov, 2007. "Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(263), pages 371-382, December.
    21. Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
    22. Kosater, Peter & Mosler, Karl, 2006. "Can Markov regime-switching models improve power-price forecasts? Evidence from German daily power prices," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 83(9), pages 943-958, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
    2. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2018. "The influence of renewables on electricity price forecasting: a robust approach," Working Papers 2018/10, Institut d'Economia de Barcelona (IEB).
    3. Herrera, Rodrigo & González, Nicolás, 2014. "The modeling and forecasting of extreme events in electricity spot markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 477-490.
    4. A. Stan Hurn & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2016. "A Smooth Transition Logit Model of The Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 707-733, June.
    5. Giorgia Callegaro & Andrea Mazzoran & Carlo Sgarra, 2019. "A Self-Exciting Modelling Framework for Forward Prices in Power Markets," Papers 1910.13286, arXiv.org.
    6. Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
    7. Yan, Guan & Trück, Stefan, 2020. "A dynamic network analysis of spot electricity prices in the Australian national electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 92(C).
    8. Luigi Grossi & Fany Nan, 2017. "Forecasting electricity prices through robust nonlinear models," Working Papers 06/2017, University of Verona, Department of Economics.
    9. Pawel Maryniak & Rafal Weron, 2014. "Forecasting the occurrence of electricity price spikes in the UK power market," HSC Research Reports HSC/14/11, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
    10. Grossi, Luigi & Nan, Fany, 2019. "Robust forecasting of electricity prices: Simulations, models and the impact of renewable sources," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 141(C), pages 305-318.
    11. Lu, Ye & Suthaharan, Neyavan, 2023. "Electricity price spike clustering: A zero-inflated GARX approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    12. Lin Han & Ivor Cribben & Stefan Trueck, 2022. "Extremal Dependence in Australian Electricity Markets," Papers 2202.09970, arXiv.org.
    13. Jiao, Ying & Ma, Chunhua & Scotti, Simone & Sgarra, Carlo, 2019. "A branching process approach to power markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 144-156.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Christensen, T.M. & Hurn, A.S. & Lindsay, K.A., 2012. "Forecasting spikes in electricity prices," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 28(2), pages 400-411.
    2. Clements, A.E. & Herrera, R. & Hurn, A.S., 2015. "Modelling interregional links in electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 51(C), pages 383-393.
    3. Timothy Christensen & Stan Hurn & Kenneth Lindsay, 2009. "It Never Rains but it Pours: Modeling the Persistence of Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-48.
    4. Weron, Rafał, 2014. "Electricity price forecasting: A review of the state-of-the-art with a look into the future," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(4), pages 1030-1081.
    5. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
    6. Rafal Weron, 2006. "Modeling and Forecasting Electricity Loads and Prices: A Statistical Approach," HSC Books, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology, number hsbook0601.
    7. Michel Culot & Valérie Goffin & Steve Lawford & Sébastien de Meten & Yves Smeers, 2013. "Practical stochastic modelling of electricity prices," Post-Print hal-01021603, HAL.
    8. Janczura, Joanna & Trück, Stefan & Weron, Rafał & Wolff, Rodney C., 2013. "Identifying spikes and seasonal components in electricity spot price data: A guide to robust modeling," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 96-110.
    9. Lu, Ye & Suthaharan, Neyavan, 2023. "Electricity price spike clustering: A zero-inflated GARX approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 124(C).
    10. Herrera, Rodrigo & González, Nicolás, 2014. "The modeling and forecasting of extreme events in electricity spot markets," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 477-490.
    11. Le Pen, Yannick & Sévi, Benoît, 2010. "Volatility transmission and volatility impulse response functions in European electricity forward markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(4), pages 758-770, July.
    12. Rubin, Ofir David, 2010. "Equilibrium pricing in electricity markets with wind power," ISU General Staff Papers 201001010800002361, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
    13. Mayer, Klaus & Trück, Stefan, 2018. "Electricity markets around the world," Journal of Commodity Markets, Elsevier, vol. 9(C), pages 77-100.
    14. A. Stan Hurn & Annastiina Silvennoinen & Timo Teräsvirta, 2016. "A Smooth Transition Logit Model of The Effects of Deregulation in the Electricity Market," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 31(4), pages 707-733, June.
    15. Godin, Frédéric & Ibrahim, Zinatu, 2021. "An analysis of electricity congestion price patterns in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    16. Fanone, Enzo & Gamba, Andrea & Prokopczuk, Marcel, 2013. "The case of negative day-ahead electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 35(C), pages 22-34.
    17. Antonio Bello & Javier Reneses & Antonio Muñoz, 2016. "Medium-Term Probabilistic Forecasting of Extremely Low Prices in Electricity Markets: Application to the Spanish Case," Energies, MDPI, vol. 9(3), pages 1-27, March.
    18. Joanna Janczura, 2014. "Pricing electricity derivatives within a Markov regime-switching model: a risk premium approach," Mathematical Methods of Operations Research, Springer;Gesellschaft für Operations Research (GOR);Nederlands Genootschap voor Besliskunde (NGB), vol. 79(1), pages 1-30, February.
    19. Eichler, M. & Grothe, O. & Manner, H. & Türk, D.D.T., 2012. "Modeling spike occurrences in electricity spot prices for forecasting," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Maastricht Research School of Economics of Technology and Organization (METEOR).
    20. Carlo Lucheroni, 2012. "A hybrid SETARX model for spikes in tight electricity markets," Operations Research and Decisions, Wroclaw University of Science and Technology, Faculty of Management, vol. 22(1), pages 13-49.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:89:y:2013:i:287:p:508-521. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/esausea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.