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Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices




During periods of market stress, electricity prices can rise dramatically. Electricity retailers cannot pass these extreme prices on to customers because of retail price regulation. Improved prediction of these price spikes therefore is important for risk management. This paper builds a time-varying-probability Markov-switching model of Queensland electricity prices, aimed particularly at forecasting price spikes. Variables capturing demand and weather patterns are used to drive the transition probabilities. Unlike traditional Markov-switching models that assume normality of the prices in each state, the model presented here uses a generalised beta distribution to allow for the skewness in the distribution of electricity prices during high-price episodes. Copyright © 2007 The Economic Society of Australia.

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  • Ralf Becker & Stan Hurn & Vlad Pavlov, 2007. "Modelling Spikes in Electricity Prices," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 83(263), pages 371-382, December.
  • Handle: RePEc:bla:ecorec:v:83:y:2007:i:263:p:371-382

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    References listed on IDEAS

    1. Borland, Jeff, 1999. "Earnings Inequality in Australia: Changes, Causes and Consequences," The Economic Record, The Economic Society of Australia, vol. 75(229), pages 177-202, June.
    2. Peter Gottschalk, 1997. "Inequality, Income Growth, and Mobility: The Basic Facts," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 11(2), pages 21-40, Spring.
    3. Mills, Jeffrey A & Zandvakili, Sourushe, 1997. "Statistical Inference via Bootstrapping for Measures of Inequality," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 12(2), pages 133-150, March-Apr.
    4. Biewen, Martin, 2002. "Bootstrap inference for inequality, mobility and poverty measurement," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 108(2), pages 317-342, June.
    5. Coulter, Fiona A E & Cowell, Frank A & Jenkins, Stephen P, 1992. "Equivalence Scale Relativities and the Extent of Inequality and Poverty," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 102(414), pages 1067-1082, September.
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