What Do We Learn from Unit Roots in Macroeconomic Time Series?
It is often argued that the presence of a unit root in aggregate output implies that there is no "business cycle": the economy does not return to trend following a disturbance. This paper makes this notion precise, but then develops a simple aggregative model where this relation is contradicted. In the model output both has a unit root, and displays repeated short-run fluctuations around a deterministic trend. Some summary statistical evidence is presented that suggests the phenomena described in the paper is not without empirical basis.
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- Durlauf, Steven N & Phillips, Peter C B, 1988.
"Trends versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis,"
Econometric Society, vol. 56(6), pages 1333-54, November.
- Steven N. Durlauf & Peter C.B. Phillips, 1986. "Trends Versus Random Walks in Time Series Analysis," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 788, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
- Francis X. Diebold & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 1987. "Does the business cycle have duration memory?," Special Studies Papers 223, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
- J. Bradford De Long & Lawrence H. Summers, 1986. "Are Business Cycles Symmetric?," NBER Working Papers 1444, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
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