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Analysis of the relationship between Oil price, Exchange rate and Stock market in Nigeria

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  • Raheem, Aremu Idowu
  • Ayodeji, Musa Adebiyi

Abstract

The objective of this paper is to analyze the dynamic effects of oil price shock and exchange rate on the Nigeria stock market using monthly data from June 1999 to December 2014, applying Vector Autoregression (VAR) Model. Granger Causality Test, Impulse Response Functions (IRFs) and Variance Decomposition (VDC) were also used to aid in the analysis of the results. The findings showed that oil price, exchange rate and stock market are not co-integrated. Granger Causality Test result indicate that there is bidirectional causality between stock price and exchange rate, also there is bidirectional causality between oil price and exchange rate but unidirectional causality from oil proceed to exchange rate.

Suggested Citation

  • Raheem, Aremu Idowu & Ayodeji, Musa Adebiyi, 2016. "Analysis of the relationship between Oil price, Exchange rate and Stock market in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 73549, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:73549
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Dornbusch, Rudiger & Fischer, Stanley, 1980. "Exchange Rates and the Current Account," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 70(5), pages 960-971, December.
    2. Shahriar Hasan & Mohammad Mahbobi, 2013. "The Increasing Influence of Oil Prices on the Canadian Stock Market," The International Journal of Business and Finance Research, The Institute for Business and Finance Research, vol. 7(3), pages 27-39.
    3. Gavin, Michael, 1989. "The stock market and exchange rate dynamics," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 8(2), pages 181-200, June.
    4. Alok Kumar Mishra, 2004. "Stock Market and Foreign Exchange Market in India: Are they Related?," South Asia Economic Journal, Institute of Policy Studies of Sri Lanka, vol. 5(2), pages 209-232, September.
    5. Hamilton, James D, 1983. "Oil and the Macroeconomy since World War II," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 91(2), pages 228-248, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    JEL classification:

    • C32 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Multiple or Simultaneous Equation Models; Multiple Variables - - - Time-Series Models; Dynamic Quantile Regressions; Dynamic Treatment Effect Models; Diffusion Processes; State Space Models
    • E60 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - General

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