Oil Price Shocks and Monetary Policy Aggregates in Nigeria: A Structural VAR Approach
Studies have shown that the impact of oil price volatility varies significantly across countries and within the different sectors of a particular economy. The impact vary according to the prevailing state of an economy: whether the economy is a net importer or exporter of oil; the exchange rate regime; monetary policy framework; the vulnerability of the key sectors of the economy and the degree of openness of the economy. In this study, we have used both restricted and unrestricted structural VAR models to decompose the impact of oil price shocks. Using a seven-variable VAR matrix which include monetary policy aggregates, we forecast the impact of a one standard deviation innovation to oil price on inflation rate, money supply, interest rate, government expenditure, GDP per capita growth rate, exchange rate and manufacturing output over a ten-year period. We imposed identification restrictions on the VAR model to identify the structural parameters of the seven equations and show the variance decomposition analysis. The results shows that the second-round effects of oil price shocks may be transmitted to the other sectors of the economy through the government expenditure - inflation rate channels with significant direct impact on the real sector and other monetary aggregates.
|Date of creation:||01 Jun 2009|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Ludwigstraße 33, D-80539 Munich, Germany|
Web page: https://mpra.ub.uni-muenchen.de
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 2002.
"An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output,"
The Quarterly Journal of Economics,
Oxford University Press, vol. 117(4), pages 1329-1368.
- Olivier Blanchard & Roberto Perotti, 1999. "An Empirical Characterization of the Dynamic Effects of Changes in Government Spending and Taxes on Output," NBER Working Papers 7269, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Juncal Cuñado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, "undated".
"Do Oil Price Shocks Matter? Evidence For Some Europesan Countries,"
Working Papers on International Economics and Finance
- Cunado, Juncal & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(2), pages 137-154, March.
- Juncal Cuñado & Fernando Pérez de Gracia, 2001. "Do oil price shocks matter? Evidence for some European countries," Working Papers 01-02, Asociación Española de Economía y Finanzas Internacionales.
- Rebeca Jimenez-Rodriguez & Marcelo Sanchez, 2005.
"Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries,"
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(2), pages 201-228.
- Jiménez-Rodríguez, Rebeca & Sánchez, Marcelo, 2004. "Oil price shocks and real GDP growth: empirical evidence for some OECD countries," Working Paper Series 0362, European Central Bank.
- Sims, Christopher A, 1980. "Macroeconomics and Reality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(1), pages 1-48, January.
- Luis Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2006.
"Understanding the large negative impact of oil shocks,"
2005-042, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
- Luís Aguiar-Conraria & Yi Wen, 2007. "Understanding the Large Negative Impact of Oil Shocks," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 39(4), pages 925-944, 06.
- Cushman, David O. & Zha, Tao, 1997.
"Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates,"
Journal of Monetary Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 433-448, August.
- David O. Cushman & Tao Zha, 1995. "Identifying monetary policy in a small open economy under flexible exchange rates," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 95-7, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
- Burbidge, John & Harrison, Alan, 1984.
"Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions,"
International Economic Review,
Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(2), pages 459-84, June.
- John Burbidge & Alan Harrison, 1982. "Testing for the Effects of Oil-Price Rises Using Vector Autoregressions," School of Economics Working Papers 1982-01, University of Adelaide, School of Economics.
- Andrea Brischetto & Graham Voss, 1999. "A Structural Vector Autoregression Model of Monetary Policy in Australia," RBA Research Discussion Papers rdp1999-11, Reserve Bank of Australia.
- Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Quah, Danny, 1989.
"The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances,"
American Economic Review,
American Economic Association, vol. 79(4), pages 655-73, September.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BQDODRAWS: RATS procedure to implement Monte Carlo draws from a VAR with Blanchard-Quah factorization," Statistical Software Components RTS00030, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbances," NBER Working Papers 2737, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate Blanchard and Quah AER 1989," Statistical Software Components RTZ00017, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Olivier Jean Blanchard & Danny Quah, 1988. "The Dynamic Effects of Aggregate Demand and Supply Disturbance," Working papers 497, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- James D. Hamilton, 2000.
"What is an Oil Shock?,"
NBER Working Papers
7755, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Bjornland, Hilde Christiane, 1998. "The Economic Effects of North Sea Oil on the Manufacturing Sector," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 45(5), pages 553-85, November.
- Akaike, Hirotugu, 1981. "Likelihood of a model and information criteria," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 3-14, May.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 1997.
"Lag Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power,"
Boston College Working Papers in Economics
369, Boston College Department of Economics, revised 01 Sep 2000.
- Serena Ng & Pierre Perron, 2001. "LAG Length Selection and the Construction of Unit Root Tests with Good Size and Power," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 69(6), pages 1519-1554, November.
- Dickey, David A & Fuller, Wayne A, 1981. "Likelihood Ratio Statistics for Autoregressive Time Series with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 49(4), pages 1057-72, June.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:25908. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Joachim Winter)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.