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Sustainability of the Brazilian fiscal policy and central bank independence

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  • Viviane Luporini

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Abstract

This paper analyses the sustainability of fiscal policy in Brazil since the financial reform of 1965 and discusses how the relationship between the Treasury and the Central Bank has determined the federal government's capacity to finance itself. A sustainable policy is defined as one such that the discounted government debt as a ratio to GDP is backed by expected primary surpluses of equal present-value. In the context of an infinite-horizon framework, sustainability is tested through the mean-zero stationarity of the discounted debt/GDP ratio. Although the overall results indicate sustainability, tests on sub-samples show that the fiscal policy was sustainable prior to 1980, but it assumed an unsustainable path during the 1980s and early 1990s.

Suggested Citation

  • Viviane Luporini, 1999. "Sustainability of the Brazilian fiscal policy and central bank independence," Textos para Discussão Cedeplar-UFMG td125, Cedeplar, Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais.
  • Handle: RePEc:cdp:texdis:td125
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    File URL: http://www.cedeplar.ufmg.br/pesquisas/td/TD%20125.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Peter C.B. Phillips & Pierre Perron, 1986. "Testing for a Unit Root in Time Series Regression," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 795R, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University, revised Sep 1987.
    2. Bohn, Henning, 1991. "The Sustainability of Budget Deficits with Lump-Sum and with Income-Based Taxation," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(3), pages 580-604, August.
    3. Ahmed, Shaghil & Rogers, John H., 1995. "Government budget deficits and trade deficits Are present value constraints satisfied in long-term data?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 351-374, November.
    4. Wilcox, David W, 1989. "The Sustainability of Government Deficits: Implications of the Present-Value Borrowing Constraint," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 21(3), pages 291-306, August.
    5. Hamilton, James D & Flavin, Marjorie A, 1986. "On the Limitations of Government Borrowing: A Framework for EmpiricalTesting," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 76(4), pages 808-819, September.
    6. Hakkio, Craig S & Rush, Mark, 1991. "Is the Budget Deficit "Too Large?"," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 29(3), pages 429-445, July.
    7. Trehan, Bharat & Walsh, Carl E, 1991. "Testing Intertemporal Budget Constraints: Theory and Applications to U.S. Federal Budget and Current Account Deficits," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 23(2), pages 206-223, May.
    8. McCallum, Bennett T, 1984. "Are Bond-Financed Deficits Inflationary? A Ricardian Analysis," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 92(1), pages 123-135, February.
    9. Cukierman, Alex & Webb, Steven B & Neyapti, Bilin, 1992. "Measuring the Independence of Central Banks and Its Effect on Policy Outcomes," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 6(3), pages 353-398, September.
    10. Kwiatkowski, Denis & Phillips, Peter C. B. & Schmidt, Peter & Shin, Yongcheol, 1992. "Testing the null hypothesis of stationarity against the alternative of a unit root : How sure are we that economic time series have a unit root?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 54(1-3), pages 159-178.
    11. Phillips, P C B, 1987. "Time Series Regression with a Unit Root," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 277-301, March.
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    fiscal policy; federal debt; central bank independence; Brazil;

    JEL classification:

    • E5 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Monetary Policy, Central Banking, and the Supply of Money and Credit
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy

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