Modelling Stock Market Excess Returns by Markov Modulated Gaussian Noise
A basic analysis of stock market excess return data shows both linear and non-linear dependence present. Previous papers have used this to argue that it must therefore be possible to predict future values. However, this paper shows that the linear and non-linear dependence can be explained by simply allowing the mean and variance of Gaussian noise to be modulated by a (typically 3 state) hidden Markov model. Attempting to fit a Markov modulated AR process proved fruitless; the conclusion is that there is no AR-predictability present in excess return data.
|Date of creation:|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Adam Smith Building, Glasgow G12 8RT|
Phone: 0141 330 4618
Fax: 0141 330 4940
Web page: http://www.gla.ac.uk/schools/business/research/
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Pagan, Adrian, 1996. "The econometrics of financial markets," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 3(1), pages 15-102, May.
- Campbell, John Y. & Hentschel, Ludger, 1992.
"No news is good news *1: An asymmetric model of changing volatility in stock returns,"
Journal of Financial Economics,
Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 281-318, June.
- Hentschel, Ludger & Campbell, John, 1992. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," Scholarly Articles 3220232, Harvard University Department of Economics.
- John Y. Campbell & Ludger Hentschel, 1991. "No News is Good News: An Asymmetric Model of Changing Volatility in Stock Returns," NBER Working Papers 3742, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Culter, D.M. & Poterba, J.M. & Summers, L.H., 1990.
544, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Fama, Eugene F & French, Kenneth R, 1988. "Permanent and Temporary Components of Stock Prices," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 96(2), pages 246-73, April.
- Lo, Andrew W. (Andrew Wen-Chuan), 1989.
"Long-term memory in stock market prices,"
3014-89., Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
- Hamilton, James D. & Susmel, Raul, 1994.
"Autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity and changes in regime,"
Journal of Econometrics,
Elsevier, vol. 64(1-2), pages 307-333.
- Tom Doan, . "RATS programs to estimate Hamilton-Susmel Markov Switching ARCH model," Statistical Software Components RTZ00083, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- Andrew Harvey & Esther Ruiz & Neil Shephard, 1994. "Multivariate Stochastic Variance Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 61(2), pages 247-264.
- Gallant, A.R. & Hsieh, D. & Tauchen, G., 1988. "On Fitting A Recalcitrant Series: The Pound/Dollar Exchange Rate, 1974- 83," Papers 88-60, Chicago - Graduate School of Business.
- Crato, Nuno & de Lima, Pedro J. F., 1994. "Long-range dependence in the conditional variance of stock returns," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 45(3), pages 281-285.
- Engle, Robert F. & Mustafa, Chowdhury, 1992. "Implied ARCH models from options prices," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 289-311.
- Jarque, Carlos M. & Bera, Anil K., 1980. "Efficient tests for normality, homoscedasticity and serial independence of regression residuals," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 6(3), pages 255-259.
- Gallant, A Ronald & Rossi, Peter E & Tauchen, George, 1992. "Stock Prices and Volume," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 5(2), pages 199-242.
- Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-84, March.
- Enrique Sentana & Sushil Wadhwani, 1991. "Semi-parametric Estimation and the Predictability of Stock Market Returns: Some Lessons from Japan," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(3), pages 547-563.
- James M. Poterba & Lawrence H. Summers, 1987.
"Mean Reversion in Stock Prices: Evidence and Implications,"
NBER Working Papers
2343, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Poterba, James M. & Summers, Lawrence H., 1988. "Mean reversion in stock prices : Evidence and Implications," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 22(1), pages 27-59, October.
- Bollerslev, Tim & Chou, Ray Y. & Kroner, Kenneth F., 1992. "ARCH modeling in finance : A review of the theory and empirical evidence," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 5-59.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:gla:glaewp:9806. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Jeanette Findlay)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.