IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/fip/fedcer/y1990iqivp13-21nv.26no.4.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Expectations and the core rate of inflation

Author

Listed:
  • Richard H. Jefferis

Abstract

A comparison of actual inflation rates with expected inflation rates generated by a wide variety of econometric models, concluding that expected inflation may serve as an effective guide to monetary policy.

Suggested Citation

  • Richard H. Jefferis, 1990. "Expectations and the core rate of inflation," Economic Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, vol. 26(Q IV), pages 13-21.
  • Handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1990:i:qiv:p:13-21:n:v.26no.4
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.clevelandfed.org/Research/Review/1990/90-q4-jefferis.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    File URL: https://fraser.stlouisfed.org/scribd/?toc_id=298139&filepath=/docs/publications/frbclevreview/rev_frbclev_1990q4.pdf&start_page=15#scribd-open
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Hamilton, James D, 1985. "Uncovering Financial Market Expectations of Inflation," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 93(6), pages 1224-1241, December.
    2. Fama, Eugene F, 1982. "Inflation, Output, and Money," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 201-231, April.
    3. Burmeister, Edwin & Wall, Kent D & Hamilton, James D, 1986. "Estimation of Unobserved Expected Monthly Inflation Using Kalman Filtering," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 4(2), pages 147-160, April.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Prakash Kumar Shrestha, 2006. "Some Measures of Core Inflation and Their Evaluations in Nepal," NRB Economic Review, Nepal Rastra Bank, Research Department, vol. 18, pages 37-69, April.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew Ang & Geert Bekaert & Min Wei, 2008. "The Term Structure of Real Rates and Expected Inflation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(2), pages 797-849, April.
    2. Robert Faff & Richard Heaney, 1999. "An examination of the relationship between Australian industry equity returns and expected inflation," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 31(8), pages 915-933.
    3. Nathan S. Balke & Mark E. Wohar, 2002. "Low-Frequency Movements in Stock Prices: A State-Space Decomposition," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 84(4), pages 649-667, November.
    4. Victor Bystrov, 2018. "Measuring the Natural Rates of Interest in Germany and Italy," Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(4), pages 333-353, December.
    5. Benati, Luca, 2007. "Drift and breaks in labor productivity," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 31(8), pages 2847-2877, August.
    6. Juha Seppala & Federico Ravenna, 2007. "Monetary Policy, Expected Inflation, and Inflation Risk Premium," 2007 Meeting Papers 513, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    7. Ang, Andrew & Bekaert, Geert & Wei, Min, 2007. "Do macro variables, asset markets, or surveys forecast inflation better?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(4), pages 1163-1212, May.
    8. Chatrath, Arjun & Ramchander, Sanjay & Song, Frank, 1996. "Stock prices, inflation and output: Evidence from India," Journal of Asian Economics, Elsevier, vol. 7(2), pages 237-245.
    9. Baumeister, Christiane, 2021. "Measuring Market Expectations," CEPR Discussion Papers 16520, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    10. Lim, Terence & Lo, Andrew W. & Merton, Robert C. & Scholes, Myron S., 2006. "The Derivatives Sourcebook," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(5–6), pages 365-572, April.
    11. Luca Benati, 2018. "Cagan s Paradox Revisited," Diskussionsschriften dp1826, Universitaet Bern, Departement Volkswirtschaft.
    12. Chari, V.V. & Kehoe, Patrick J. & McGrattan, Ellen R., 2008. "Are structural VARs with long-run restrictions useful in developing business cycle theory?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 55(8), pages 1337-1352, November.
    13. Ellen R. McGrattan, 2010. "Measurement with minimal theory," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue July, pages 2-13.
    14. Chan Il Park, 1998. "Transactions Demand for Money and the Inverse Relation Between Inflation and Output: the Case of Korean Economy," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(1), pages 39-51.
    15. Chattopadhyay, Siddhartha & Sahu, Sohini & Jha, Saakshi, 2016. "Estimation of Unobserved Inflation Expectations in India using State-Space Model," MPRA Paper 72710, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    16. Didier Sornette & Wei-Xing Zhou, 2005. "Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: the 'optimal thermal causal path' method," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 5(6), pages 577-591.
    17. Junttila, Juha, 2001. "Structural breaks, ARIMA model and Finnish inflation forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 17(2), pages 203-230.
    18. Rodríguez, Alejandro & Ruiz, Esther, 2012. "Bootstrap prediction mean squared errors of unobserved states based on the Kalman filter with estimated parameters," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 56(1), pages 62-74, January.
    19. Yasuo Nishiyama, 2007. "Are Banks Risk-Averse?," Eastern Economic Journal, Eastern Economic Association, vol. 33(4), pages 471-490, Fall.
    20. Kelly, Bryan & Pruitt, Seth, 2015. "The three-pass regression filter: A new approach to forecasting using many predictors," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 186(2), pages 294-316.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:fip:fedcer:y:1990:i:qiv:p:13-21:n:v.26no.4. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: 4D Library (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/frbclus.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.