Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: the 'optimal thermal causal path' method
We introduce a novel non-parametric methodology to test for the dynamical time evolution of the lag-lead structure between two arbitrary time series. The method consists of constructing a distance matrix based on the matching of all sample data pairs between the two time series. Then, the lag-lead structure is searched for as the optimal path in the distance matrix landscape that minimizes the total mismatch between the two time series, and that obeys a one-to-one causal matching condition. To make the solution robust to the presence of a large amount of noise that may lead to spurious structures in the distance matrix landscape, we generalize this optimal search by introducing a fuzzy search by sampling over all possible paths, each path being weighted according to a multinomial logit or equivalently Boltzmann factor proportional to the exponential of the global mismatch of this path. We present the efficient transfer matrix method that solves the problem and test it on simple synthetic examples to demonstrate its properties and usefulness compared with the standard running-time cross-correlation method. We then apply our 'optimal thermal causal path' method to the question of the lag-dependence between the US stock market and the treasury bond yields and confirm our earlier results on an arrow of the stock markets preceding the Federal Reserve Funds' adjustments, as well as the yield rates at short maturities in the period 2000-2003. Our application of this technique to inflation, inflation change, GDP growth rate and unemployment rate unearths non-trivial lag relationships: the GDP changes lead inflation especially since the 1980s, inflation changes leads GDP only in the 1980 decade, and inflation leads unemployment rates since the 1970s. In addition, our approach seems to detect multiple competing lag structures in which one can have inflation leading GDP with a certain lag time and GDP feeding back/leading inflation with another lag time.
If you experience problems downloading a file, check if you have the proper application to view it first. In case of further problems read the IDEAS help page. Note that these files are not on the IDEAS site. Please be patient as the files may be large.
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to look for a different version under "Related research" (further below) or search for a different version of it.
Volume (Year): 5 (2005)
Issue (Month): 6 ()
|Contact details of provider:|| Web page: http://www.tandfonline.com/RQUF20|
|Order Information:||Web: http://www.tandfonline.com/pricing/journal/RQUF20|
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
- D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
- Apergis, Nicholas, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, volatility and causality: evidence from panel data and the G7 countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-191, May.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos,Menelaos, 2001.
"Inflation and Output Growth Uncertainty and their Relationship with Inflation and Output Growth,"
0053, National University of Ireland Galway, Department of Economics, revised 2001.
- Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2002. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty and their relationship with inflation and output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 293-301, May.
- Hyeon-Seung Huh & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2002. "Asymmetric output cost of lowering inflation: empirical evidence for Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 218-238, May.
- Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
- Strozzi, Fernanda & Zaldı́var, José-Manuel & Zbilut, Joseph P, 2002. "Application of nonlinear time series analysis techniques to high-frequency currency exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 520-538.
- Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005.
"The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty,"
Review of Economic Dynamics,
Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
- Cogley, Timothy & Sargent, Thomas J., 2005. "The conquest of U.S. inflation: learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Working Paper Series 0478, European Central Bank.
- Fischer, Stanley, 1974. "Money and the Production Function," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(4), pages 517-533, December.
- Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280-280.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:taf:quantf:v:5:y:2005:i:6:p:577-591. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Michael McNulty)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.