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Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: The "optimal thermal causal path" method with applications to economic data

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  • Zhou, Wei-Xing
  • Sornette, Didier

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  • Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2006. "Non-parametric determination of real-time lag structure between two time series: The "optimal thermal causal path" method with applications to economic data," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 28(1), pages 195-224, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jmacro:v:28:y:2006:i:1:p:195-224
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    1. Robert J. Barro, 2013. "Inflation and Economic Growth," Annals of Economics and Finance, Society for AEF, vol. 14(1), pages 121-144, May.
    2. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Quantitative Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 1(4), pages 452-471.
    3. Gary Shelley & Frederick Wallace, 2004. "Inflation, money, and real GDP in Mexico: a causality analysis," Applied Economics Letters, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 11(4), pages 223-225.
    4. Neil R. Ericsson & John S. Irons & Ralph W. Tryon, 2001. "Output and inflation in the long run," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 16(3), pages 241-253.
    5. Hyeon-Seung Huh & Hyun-Hoon Lee, 2002. "Asymmetric output cost of lowering inflation: empirical evidence for Canada," Canadian Journal of Economics, Canadian Economics Association, vol. 35(2), pages 218-238, May.
    6. Timothy Cogley & Thomas J. Sargent, 2005. "The conquest of US inflation: Learning and robustness to model uncertainty," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 8(2), pages 528-563, April.
    7. Ashley, R & Granger, C W J & Schmalensee, R, 1980. "Advertising and Aggregate Consumption: An Analysis of Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1149-1167, July.
    8. Strozzi, Fernanda & Zaldı́var, José-Manuel & Zbilut, Joseph P, 2002. "Application of nonlinear time series analysis techniques to high-frequency currency exchange data," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 312(3), pages 520-538.
    9. Fischer, Stanley, 1974. "Money and the Production Function," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 12(4), pages 517-533, December.
    10. Robert Mundell, 1963. "Inflation and Real Interest," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 71, pages 280-280.
    11. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2004. "Causal slaving of the US treasury bond yield antibubble by the stock market antibubble of August 2000," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 337(3), pages 586-608.
    12. D. Sornette & A. Johansen, 2001. "Significance of log-periodic precursors to financial crashes," Papers cond-mat/0106520, arXiv.org.
    13. Chamberlain, Gary, 1982. "The General Equivalence of Granger and Sims Causality," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 50(3), pages 569-581, May.
    14. Apergis, Nicholas, 2004. "Inflation, output growth, volatility and causality: evidence from panel data and the G7 countries," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 83(2), pages 185-191, May.
    15. Fountas, Stilianos & Karanasos, Menelaos & Kim, Jinki, 2002. "Inflation and output growth uncertainty and their relationship with inflation and output growth," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 75(3), pages 293-301, May.
    16. Geweke, John, 1984. "Inference and causality in economic time series models," Handbook of Econometrics,in: Z. Griliches† & M. D. Intriligator (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 19, pages 1101-1144 Elsevier.
    17. Hyeon-seung Huh, 2002. "Estimating Asymmetric Output Cost of Lowering Inflation for Australia," Southern Economic Journal, Southern Economic Association, vol. 68(3), pages 600-616, January.
    18. Fama, Eugene F, 1982. "Inflation, Output, and Money," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 55(2), pages 201-231, April.
    19. Kevin J. Lansing, 2000. "Exploring the causes of the Great Inflation," FRBSF Economic Letter, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue jul7.
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    2. repec:spr:qualqt:v:51:y:2017:i:3:d:10.1007_s11135-016-0341-2 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2007. "Lead-lag cross-sectional structure and detection of correlated–anticorrelated regime shifts: Application to the volatilities of inflation and economic growth rates," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 380(C), pages 287-296.
    4. Yao, Can-Zhong & Lin, Ji-Nan & Lin, Qing-Wen & Zheng, Xu-Zhou & Liu, Xiao-Feng, 2016. "A study of causality structure and dynamics in industrial electricity consumption based on Granger network," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 462(C), pages 297-320.
    5. repec:eee:phsmap:v:483:y:2017:i:c:p:299-308 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. repec:eee:phsmap:v:486:y:2017:i:c:p:535-541 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Guo, Kun & Sun, Yi & Qian, Xin, 2017. "Can investor sentiment be used to predict the stock price? Dynamic analysis based on China stock market," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 469(C), pages 390-396.
    8. Wang, Xuan & Guo, Kun & Lu, Xiaolin, 2016. "The long-run dynamic relationship between exchange rate and its attention index: Based on DCCA and TOP method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 453(C), pages 108-115.
    9. Xu, Hai-Chuan & Zhou, Wei-Xing & Sornette, Didier, 2017. "Time-dependent lead-lag relationship between the onshore and offshore Renminbi exchange rates," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 173-183.
    10. Jia, Rui-Lin & Wang, Dong-Hua & Tu, Jing-Qing & Li, Sai-Ping, 2016. "Correlation between agricultural markets in dynamic perspective—Evidence from China and the US futures markets," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 464(C), pages 83-92.
    11. repec:eee:phsmap:v:513:y:2019:i:c:p:709-723 is not listed on IDEAS
    12. Stübinger, Johannes, 2018. "Statistical arbitrage with optimal causal paths on high-frequencydata of the S&P 500," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 01/2018, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
    13. Gong, Chen-Chen & Ji, Shen-Dan & Su, Li-Ling & Li, Sai-Ping & Ren, Fei, 2016. "The lead–lag relationship between stock index and stock index futures: A thermal optimal path method," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 444(C), pages 63-72.

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