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Policy Rules for Capital Controls

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  • Gurnain Pasricha

Abstract

This paper attempts to borrow the tradition of estimating policy reaction functions in monetary policy literature and apply it to capital controls policy literature. Using a novel weekly dataset on capital controls policy actions in 21 emerging economies over the period 1 January 2001 to 31 December 2015, I examine the mercantilist and macroprudential motivations for capital control policies. I introduce a new proxy for mercantilist motivations: the weighted appreciation of an emerging-market currency against its top five trade competitors. There is clear evidence that past emerging-market policy systematically responds to both mercantilist and macroprudential motivations. The choice of instruments is also systematic: policy-makers respond to mercantilist concerns by using both instruments — inflow tightening and outflow easing. They use only inflow tightening in response to macroprudential concerns. I also find that policy is acyclical to foreign debt but is countercyclical to domestic bank credit to the private non-financial sector. The adoption of explicit financial stability mandates by central banks or the creation of inter-agency financial stability councils increased the weight of macroprudential factors in the use of capital controls policies. Countries with higher exchange rate pass-through to export prices are more responsive to mercantilist concerns.

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  • Gurnain Pasricha, 2017. "Policy Rules for Capital Controls," Staff Working Papers 17-42, Bank of Canada.
  • Handle: RePEc:bca:bocawp:17-42
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    Cited by:

    1. Radhika Pandey & Rajeswari Sengupta & Aatmin Shah & Bhargavi Zaveri, 2019. "Evolution of capital controls on foreign institutional investment in India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2019-034, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    2. Valerio Nispi Landi & Alessandro Schiavone, 2021. "The Effectiveness of Capital Controls," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 32(1), pages 183-211, February.
    3. Alfaro, Laura & Chari, Anusha & Kanczuk, Fabio, 2017. "The real effects of capital controls: Firm-level evidence from a policy experiment," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 191-210.
    4. Yang Zhou, 2022. "The Effects of Capital Controls on Housing Prices," Discussion Paper Series DP2022-29, Research Institute for Economics & Business Administration, Kobe University.
    5. Daniel Carvalho & Etienne Lepers & Rogelio Jr Mercado, 2021. "Taming the "Capital Flows-Credit Nexus": A Sectoral Approach," Trinity Economics Papers tep0921, Trinity College Dublin, Department of Economics.
    6. Lepers, Etienne & Mercado, Rogelio, 2021. "Sectoral capital flows: Covariates, co-movements, and controls," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).
    7. Edward Nelson, 2020. "The Continuing Validity of Monetary Policy Autonomy under Floating Exchange Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 16(2), pages 81-123, March.
    8. Pasricha, Gurnain Kaur & Falagiarda, Matteo & Bijsterbosch, Martin & Aizenman, Joshua, 2018. "Domestic and multilateral effects of capital controls in emerging markets," Journal of International Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C), pages 48-58.
    9. Radhika Pandey & Gurnain K. Pasricha & Ila Patnaik & Ajay Shah, 2021. "Motivations for capital controls and their effectiveness," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 26(1), pages 391-415, January.
    10. Chertman, Fernando & Hutchison, Michael & Zink, David, 2020. "Facing the Quadrilemma: Taylor rules, intervention policy and capital controls in large emerging markets," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
    11. Nicolas Gavoille & Katharina Hofer, 2021. "Capital Controls and Electoral Cycles," IMF Economic Review, Palgrave Macmillan;International Monetary Fund, vol. 69(2), pages 275-324, June.
    12. Filippo Gori & Etienne Lepers & Caroline Mehigan, 2020. "Capital flow deflection under the magnifying glass," OECD Economics Department Working Papers 1613, OECD Publishing.
    13. Carlos Madeira, 2023. "The evolution of macroprudential policy use in Chile, Latin America and the OECD," Journal of Banking Regulation, Palgrave Macmillan, vol. 24(3), pages 357-380, September.
    14. Apoorv Bhargava & Romain Bouis & Annamaria Kokenyne & Manuel Perez-Archila & Umang Rawat & Ms. Ratna Sahay, 2023. "Do Capital Controls Limit Inflow Surges?," IMF Working Papers 2023/050, International Monetary Fund.
    15. Wang, Jian & Wu, Jason, 2021. "Is capital flow management effective? Evidence based on U.S. monetary policy shocks," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 118(C).
    16. Yin Germaschewski, 2022. "House price, credit supply, and government policy in China," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(2), pages 971-1026, May.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Exchange rate regimes; Financial stability; Financial system regulation and policies; International topics;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F3 - International Economics - - International Finance
    • F4 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance
    • F5 - International Economics - - International Relations, National Security, and International Political Economy
    • G0 - Financial Economics - - General
    • G1 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets

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