IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/wly/jmoncb/v54y2022i4p885-919.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

An Epidemiological Model of Economic Crisis Spread across Sectors in the United States

Author

Listed:
  • EVA F. JANSSENS
  • ROBIN L. LUMSDAINE
  • SEBASTIAAN H.L.C.G. VERMEULEN

Abstract

This paper develops a discrete‐time epidemiological model to characterize the spread of economic deterioration across sectors in the United States for the period 1952–2015. It is the first model to apply an epidemiological approach to consider such spread using macroeconomic Flow of Funds data. By extending the usual one‐period Markov model to a two‐period setting, we incorporate the possibility that an initial slow growth period may either continue further or improve such that further economic deterioration is averted. The estimated model can be used to classify more versus less contagious sectors and identify their channels of transmission.

Suggested Citation

  • Eva F. Janssens & Robin L. Lumsdaine & Sebastiaan H.L.C.G. Vermeulen, 2022. "An Epidemiological Model of Economic Crisis Spread across Sectors in the United States," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(4), pages 885-919, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:4:p:885-919
    DOI: 10.1111/jmcb.12862
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://doi.org/10.1111/jmcb.12862
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1111/jmcb.12862?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Andrew T. Foerster & Pierre-Daniel G. Sarte & Mark W. Watson, 2011. "Sectoral versus Aggregate Shocks: A Structural Factor Analysis of Industrial Production," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 119(1), pages 1-38.
    2. Christiano, Lawrence J & Eichenbaum, Martin & Evans, Charles, 1996. "The Effects of Monetary Policy Shocks: Evidence from the Flow of Funds," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 78(1), pages 16-34, February.
    3. Billio, Monica & Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Pelizzon, Loriana, 2012. "Econometric measures of connectedness and systemic risk in the finance and insurance sectors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 104(3), pages 535-559.
    4. Greg Kaplan & Benjamin Moll & Giovanni L. Violante, 2020. "The Great Lockdown and the Big Stimulus: Tracing the Pandemic Possibility Frontier for the U.S," NBER Working Papers 27794, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    5. Bianchi, Daniele & Billio, Monica & Casarin, Roberto & Guidolin, Massimo, 2019. "Modeling systemic risk with Markov Switching Graphical SUR models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 210(1), pages 58-74.
    6. Xavier Gabaix, 2011. "The Granular Origins of Aggregate Fluctuations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 79(3), pages 733-772, May.
    7. Hamilton, James D, 1989. "A New Approach to the Economic Analysis of Nonstationary Time Series and the Business Cycle," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 57(2), pages 357-384, March.
    8. Paul Glasserman & Peyton Young, 2015. "Contagion in Financial Networks," Economics Series Working Papers 764, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    9. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    10. Bisin, Alberto & Moro, Andrea, 2022. "Spatial‐SIR with network structure and behavior: Lockdown rules and the Lucas critique," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 198(C), pages 370-388.
    11. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(6), pages 1486-1517, June.
    12. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2013_019 is not listed on IDEAS
    13. Harding, Don & Pagan, Adrian, 2003. "Rejoinder to James Hamilton," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 27(9), pages 1695-1698, July.
    14. Robert J. Shiller, 2014. "Speculative Asset Prices (Nobel Prize Lecture)," Cowles Foundation Discussion Papers 1936, Cowles Foundation for Research in Economics, Yale University.
    15. R. Bonci & F. Columba, 2008. "Monetary policy effects: new evidence from the Italian flow-of-funds," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(21), pages 2803-2818.
    16. Glasserman, Paul & Young, H. Peyton, 2015. "How likely is contagion in financial networks?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 383-399.
    17. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Foreword to "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs"," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages -1, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    18. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Standard Business Cycle Analysis of Economic Time Series," NBER Chapters, in: Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs, pages 64-150, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    19. Peng, Roger, 2008. "A Method for Visualizing Multivariate Time Series Data," Journal of Statistical Software, Foundation for Open Access Statistics, vol. 25(c01).
    20. Gerhard Bry & Charlotte Boschan, 1971. "Cyclical Analysis of Time Series: Selected Procedures and Computer Programs," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number bry_71-1.
    21. Nikolaos Demiris & Theodore Kypraios & L. Vanessa Smith, 2014. "On the epidemic of financial crises," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 177(3), pages 697-723, June.
    22. Roberto Casarin & Domenico Sartore & Marco Tronzano, 2018. "A Bayesian Markov-Switching Correlation Model for Contagion Analysis on Exchange Rate Markets," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 101-114, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Eva (E.F.) Janssens & Robin (R.) Lumsdaine & Sebastiaan (S.H.L.C.G.) Vermeulen, 2018. "An Epidemiological Model of Crisis Spread Across Sectors in The United States," Tinbergen Institute Discussion Papers 18-008/III, Tinbergen Institute.
    2. Eva F. Janssens & Robin L. Lumsdaine, 2024. "Sectoral slowdowns in the United Kingdom: Evidence from transmission probabilities and economic linkages," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(1), pages 22-40, January.
    3. Erik Kole & Dick Dijk, 2017. "How to Identify and Forecast Bull and Bear Markets?," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 120-139, January.
    4. Monica Billio & Roberto Casarin & Matteo Iacopini, 2024. "Bayesian Markov-Switching Tensor Regression for Time-Varying Networks," Journal of the American Statistical Association, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 119(545), pages 109-121, January.
    5. Eduardo Bandrés & María Dolores Gadea-Rivas & Ana Gómez-Loscos, 2017. "Regional business cycles across europe," Occasional Papers 1702, Banco de España.
    6. Maria Gadea & Ana Gómez-Loscos & Antonio Montañés, 2012. "Cycles inside cycles: Spanish regional aggregation," SERIEs: Journal of the Spanish Economic Association, Springer;Spanish Economic Association, vol. 3(4), pages 423-456, December.
    7. Amrendra Kumar & Vikash Gautam, 2017. "Gold as inflation and exchange rate hedge: The case of India," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(2), pages 1168-1175.
    8. Carlo Altavilla, 2004. "Do EMU Members Share the Same Business Cycle?," Journal of Common Market Studies, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 42(5), pages 869-896, December.
    9. Raddant, Matthias & Kenett, Dror Y., 2021. "Interconnectedness in the global financial market," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
    10. Edwards, Sebastian & Biscarri, Javier Gomez & Perez de Gracia, Fernando, 2003. "Stock market cycles, financial liberalization and volatility," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 22(7), pages 925-955, December.
    11. Yýlmaz Akdi & Serdar Varlik & Hakan Berument, 2018. "Cycle Duration in Production with Periodicity – Evidence from Turkey," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 10(2), pages 24-32, September.
    12. Akdi, Yilmaz & Varlik, Serdar & Berument, M. Hakan, 2020. "Duration of Global Financial Cycles," Physica A: Statistical Mechanics and its Applications, Elsevier, vol. 549(C).
    13. Calderón, César & Fuentes, J. Rodrigo, 2014. "Have business cycles changed over the last two decades? An empirical investigation," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 109(C), pages 98-123.
    14. Daron Acemoglu & Asuman Ozdaglar & Alireza Tahbaz-Salehi, 2015. "Networks, Shocks, and Systemic Risk," NBER Working Papers 20931, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Stelios Giannoulakis & Plutarchos Sakellaris, 2023. "Financial crises, firm‐level shocks and large downturns: Evidence from Greece," International Journal of Finance & Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 28(2), pages 1549-1562, April.
    16. Candelon, Bertrand & Piplack, Jan & Straetmans, Stefan, 2008. "On measuring synchronization of bulls and bears: The case of East Asia," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 32(6), pages 1022-1035, June.
    17. Nissilä, Wilma, 2020. "Probit based time series models in recession forecasting – A survey with an empirical illustration for Finland," BoF Economics Review 7/2020, Bank of Finland.
    18. Cyrille Lenoel & Garry Young, 2020. "Real-time turning point indicators: Review of current international practices," Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE) Discussion Papers ESCoE DP-2020-05, Economic Statistics Centre of Excellence (ESCoE).
    19. Quintero Otero, Jorge David & Padilla Sierra, Alcides de Jesús, 2024. "Impacto de la sincronización sub-nacional sobre el comportamiento de los ciclos nacionales en economías emergentes con inflación objetivo," Documentos Departamento de Economía 54, Universidad del Norte.
    20. Francis W. Ahking, 2015. "Measuring U.S. Business Cycles: A Comparison of Two Methods and Two Indicators of Economic Activities (With Appendix A)," Working papers 2015-06, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.

    More about this item

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:wly:jmoncb:v:54:y:2022:i:4:p:885-919. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Wiley Content Delivery (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.blackwellpublishing.com/journal.asp?ref=0022-2879 .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.